Al Shabaab intends to establish military bases in Lamu, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera counties, from where they can reorganize and launch devastating attacks against KDF, AMISOM and SNA troops in both Kenya and Somalia. Based on intercepted communiqués between the terror group and its affiliates in Kenya, al Shabaab top leadership has entreated on its local affiliates to conduct attacks in Kenya along the areas abutting the Kenya-Somalia border; and “liberate” Muslim territories on which terror bases can be established subsequently.
The intercepted communiqués also shows that Al Shabaab is advancing a large segment of its forces into the hinterland of Somalia in order to escape the increasingly successful counter-terrorism operations being conducted by AMISOM and KDF troops. The terror group has also expressed its willingness to infiltrate its terrorists into Kenya in order to assist their domestic affiliates to conduct terror activities in the nation.
Al Shabaab is currently counting on the support of willing parties to support its activities in Kenya. This is showcased by HSM pleas to its members in Kenya to reach out to al Qaeda elements in the nation and establish joint cells since most of the Amniyaat intelligence cells have been destroyed thereby disabling HSM intelligence and counter-intelligence operations in Kenya.
The communiqués also revealed that al Shabaab top leadership is extremely concerned about ISIL inroads into East Africa, and it has pleaded with its members to maintain only minimal contact with ISIL – sympathizers in the region. Likewise, the Somalia-based Sunni terror group is also cautious about stoking Shiite-Sunni conflict in the Coastal region of Kenya.
