______________________
Economic
The largest economy in East Africa remains robust. With an estimated current GDP of over 117 billion USD, the Kenya GDP is projected to trend around 124.69 USD Billion in 2024 and 131.92 USD Billion in 2025. The economy remains stable and resilient against domestic pressure and harsh global economic conditions. The shilling continues to shed value as inflation rises. Austerity measures and fiscal consolidation are helping the country narrow its budget/account deficit.
The Revenue Authority (KRA) continues to achieve its tax collection objectives, often surpassing targets with billions of shillings. Country is focusing on widening the tax base to optimize collection.
JP Morgan financial services through Government of Kenya announced intent to open a regional office in Nairobi. Entry of the highly rated American global leader in financial services is a bold economic move and an indicator of the current administration’s pro-West lean. It also provides an overview of upcoming privatization of key Government organizations with JP Morgan which specializes in providing solutions to governments and institutions taking leading role in the bold economic move.
Kenya on Tuesday offered a Tanzanian investor the license to set up a cooking gas plant and storage facilities at the Mombasa port. The energy regulator cleared Taifa Gas, which is owned by Rostam Aziz to build a 30,000-tonne liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) handling facility in the country at an estimated cost $130 million (Sh16.25 billion). Once operational, Taifa Gas facility is viewed to offer Kenya an opportunity to lower cooking gas costs in the absence of price controls.
Security
Country in past 3 weeks has suffered setbacks after multiple insecurity incidents in frontier areas. Banditry, cattle rustling, urban crime, and terrorism remains a persistent threat to country’s national security. In swift response Government deployed both the military and police to conduct operations in Rift Valley where Banditry and cattle rustling incidents have persisted. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) continues to be the primary Counterterrorism operations beacon thwarting different types of terror attacks in January and February in NEP which included attacks on Civilians in Lamu and Tana River and small-scale assaults on police camps, border patrols, military camps & multiple reinforced IED attacks on security forces along the NEP. However, the threat of terrorism remains high in the country.
Kenya border with Somalia remain volatile and despite the robust counterterrorism operations by multi-agency teams, Al-Shabaab cells remains a notable threat especially in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu counties. Other risk areas in the latest regional advisory include 50 km of the coast of Tana River County, 50 km of the coast of Kilifi County (from north of the city of Malindi to the Tana River County limits and some Neighborhoods of Nairobi.
Kenya continues to be attractive targets to terrorists planning to conduct potentially imminent attacks. Terrorist groups could attack with little or no warning, targeting hotels, embassies, restaurants, malls and markets, schools, police stations, places of worship, and other places frequented by foreigners and tourist and as such the government of Kenya has increased counter-terrorism patrols especially along the border with Somalia as well s beefed security in major cities and towns the aforementioned counties.
Political
The political weather remains negative with opposition leader Raila Odinga resuming his subversive sociopolitical adventures at a time when the country’s economy requires political stability to bolster investor confidence. The politician often exploits election results to pursue his socioeconomic interests. Currently he has sieged the current administration with threats of mass action which often result in civil unrest, decline of stocks and money markets. Such outcomes will stunt economic growth and further weaken the shilling. The government’s response to such political threats will be high handed through soft power strategy which will severely weaken Mr Odinga politically. This also, will be the 1st time Mr Raila Odinga will not be given preferential political treatment.
The opposition leader Raila Odinga gave the government a 14-day ultimatum Wednesday to lower taxes, reduce the cost of living and stop the process of IEBC commissioners’ selection or face nationwide protests. Raila Odinga’s disruptions continue to cause unnecessary anxiety even as his tenure as African Union’s High Representative for Infrastructure Development coming to an end after 5 years as per AU chairperson Moussa Faki.
Jill Biden heads to Namibia, Kenya on Tuesday 21st part of US-Africa push declaring as she departed Washington that she had “a lot to accomplish” during a five-day visit focused on empowering women and young people and addressing food insecurity.
The US first lady’s visit to Namibia and Kenya is part of a push by the United States to step up engagement with Africa as a counterweight to China’s influence on the continent.
Through renewed engagement with the countries of Africa, the U.S. aims to catch up with its economic rival, China, which has outpaced the U.S. in terms of trade in some of the 54 nations on the continent, the second most-populous.
