Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st February – 28th February, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda remains a persistent threat in Somalia and neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia. The terrorist group has demonstrated the ability to carry out deadly attacks, and their tactics include conducting surveillance on their targets to identify vulnerabilities and plan their operations.

It is important to note that Al-Shabaab has been able to sharpen their skills through years of experience and a willingness to adapt and learn from their past operations. Besides, the group has also been able to take advantage of porous borders and weak governance structures in the region, which allow them to move freely and operate with relative ease.

In the Month of February 2023, at least 37 attacks were report for Kenya and Somalia in the first two weeks and 35 attacks in the third and fourth week of the month under review. Thus, Al-Shabaab registered at least 72 attacks in total for the month of February. A minimal decline attacks as compared to January where nearly 80 attacks were recorded. Terrorist events as recorded in the month under review ranged from low-large scale attacks.

CT Brief: 1^st February – 14^th February

• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Foot Patrol with IED Near Yantooy District, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Seven Somalian Forces While Repelling Attacks in Birhani District, Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Police Station with IED Killing and Injuring Several in Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Lasaqri City, Sanaag, Northeastern Somalia.
• On February 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Claimed to Have Killed Kenyan Forces and Officials and Destroyed Military Vehicles in an Ambush on the Road Between Aygari and Bodhei Cities, Lamu, Kenya.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in Halgan City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to Have Injured Kenyan Forces in Attacks on Military Bases in Eil Qalo, Dhamasa and Lafey Cities and in Elili District, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Military Base with IED in Beledweyne City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Nine Somalian Forces and destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack on Their Military Convoy in Denili District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Raided a Military Checkpoint Killing and Injuring Several Somalian Forces at the X Control Intersection, Harwa District, Mogadishu, Somalia.

• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Officer Who Worked with the CIA Named Mahd in Hodan District in Addition to a Soldier in Bakara Market, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Militants Caught Planting an IED on the Road Near Fafi Town, Garissa County, NEP Kenya.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somali Official, Abdi Awal, and Injured Another in Wabri District, Derkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted Somalian Barracks with IED in Baldawin City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Seven Others in Two IED Attacks in Jowhar City, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Bariri Town, Afgoye City, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Intelligence Element Named Hudhaifa Mahmoud Adam in Darkinli District, Mogadishu, Somali.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Sarkos Neighbourhood, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Military Base with Mortars in Janai Abdullah Town, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Repelled Four Somalian Forces’ Attacks in Donlaye District, Wisil City, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Forces Base in Lebgres District, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces While Repelling an Attack in Qansaxdheere City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated the Somalian Parliament Candidate, Mahmoud Muhammad Owais, in Dekinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Intelligence Officer Named Muhammad Mahmoud Gori, in Souk Hawlaha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Leader Who Created Government Allied Forces in Jowhar City, Middle Shabelle Region, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces, Including an Officer, and Destroyed a Motorcycle in an IED Attack in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab launched an attack featuring two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and ground forces targeting a Jubaland Region forces (JSF) base in Afmadow, Lower Jubba, southwestern Somalia. Six JSF soldiers killed.
• On February 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Two Burundian and Somalian Military Bases Killing and Injuring Several in Balaad and Kismayo Cities, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Odoyeni District, Denili, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Six Somalian Forces and Seized a PIKA and Other Equipment in an Ambush in Bertdir District, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Terror Incident in Alongo-Arba area near Saretho in Garissa County NEP Kenya reported. Al-Shabāab al-Mujāhideen Terrorists detonated an IED targeting a Border Patrol Unit (BPU) team.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Police Element in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Ethiopian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in Wajid City, Bakool Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Court Executed a Somalian Forces Element in Taqilo City, Bakool, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Repelled a Somalian Forces Attack in Qaad Town, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted an Ugandan Foot Patrol With IED in Janali City, Lower Shabelle Region, South Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Two IED Attacks in Yaqshid, Mogadishu and in Bald Hawa City in Banadir and Gedo Regions, Somalia.

14^th February – 28^th February

• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Ten Somalian Forces in Clashes Near Gobo Town, Mahas City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab Killed More Than 13 Somalian forces and Injured 21 Others in Repelling an Attack in Qaad District, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Two Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base With IED in Baidoa City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured 12 Puntland Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Barrack in Bosaso City, Bari Region, Northeastern Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in an Ambush on a Kenyan Military Base in Tabto Town, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 15^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed Armed Ambush to have Killed 36 Soldiers and Injuring 15 Others at SNA Military Base in Barsanguni, Kismayo, Lower Juba Region of Southern Somalia.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element, Kidnapped Another and Destroyed a Bulldozer in an Attack at the Gates of Kismayo City Airport, Juba Region, Somalia.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated an Officer, Mokhtar Arif, in Wadjir, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Military Vehicle With IED Killing All on Board and Destroying The Vehicle in Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 17^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Kenyan Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Hosingow Town, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 17^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Two Fuel Tanks in an IED Attack and an Ambush in Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Commander, Muhammad Oweis in Balad Hawa City, in Gedo, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Police Colonel, Ibrahim Gori, in Wabri, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Police Captain, Bali Ardouf and Seized His Weapon in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Five Somalian Forces, Injured Three Others and Seized a PIKA Machine Gun in an Ambush in “Ali Ahmed” District in Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element and Seized His Weapon in Yarked District, Louk City, Gedo Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in an Ambush on a Foot Patrol Near Heli Military Base, Garissa City, Northeastern Kenya.
• On February 19^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Ugandan and Somalian Forces in Attacks on Two Military Bases in Lantaboro and Zabid Districts, Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 19^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted Assassi Hotel Which Hosts an Officer and Government Officials With IED in Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On February 20^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed an Ethiopian Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Dinsoor City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somali.
• On February 20^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Checkpoint at the Big Bridge in Baldawin City, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On February 20^th, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Officer Who Works in the Communication Ministry in an IED Attack That Targeted His Vehicle in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 21^st, Al-Shabaab Besiege SNA Commander, General Garabey’s, Home in Abdias district of Mogadishu, Somalia; Others claim it was hospice center.
• On February 21^st, Al-Shabaab Killed Ten Somalian Forces, Including an Officer, and Injured Fifteen Others While in Clashes in Qaad District, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Seven Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Gathering in Darkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Claimed to have Killed Five Somalian Forces and Injured Fifteen Others in Clashes in Hardiri and Jalalqsi Cities, Mudug and Hiran Regions, Somalia.
• On February 22^nd, al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in Two Ambushes on Kenyan Military units in Dhamasi and Gabi Districts, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in an IED Attack on a Gathering in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed an Ethiopian Military Base in Wajid City Airport While a Military Helicopter Was Landing Causing Damages, Bakool Region, Southwestern Somalia.

• On February 25^th, Al-Shabaab Roadside IED Killed 2 Police Officers and Injured 3 Near Somalia Border on the A3 Between Dadaab and Garissa Town, Garissa County, NEP Kenya.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted Two Somalian Positions with IED Killing and Injuring Several in Abdel Aziz District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled a Somalian Military Base with Missiles in Hardiri City, Mudug Region, Somalia.
• On February 27^th, Al-Shabaab Bombed Two Somalian Forces Positions with IED in Hodan and Bidoa, Mogadishu and Bay, Somalia.

Observations & Insights

Kenya continues to be attractive targets to terrorists planning to conduct potentially imminent attacks. Terrorist groups could attack with little or no warning, targeting hotels, embassies, restaurants, malls and markets, schools, police stations, places of worship, and other places frequented by foreigners and tourist and as such the government of Kenya has increased counter-terrorism patrols especially along the border with Somalia as well as beefed security in major cities and towns especially in the frontier counties.

To address this threat, it is important for governments in the region to work together to improve border security and strengthen their intelligence capabilities. Additionally, efforts to promote good governance and address the root causes of extremism, such as poverty and marginalization, can help to undermine the appeal of groups like Al-Shabaab. Finally, international support in the form of training and equipment can help to build the capacity of regional security forces to combat the threat posed by Al-Shabaab.

A successful military strategy to combat Al-Shabaab requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that addresses the underlying political, economic, and social factors driving the group’s growth and resilience. By combining military operations with political and development measures, the international community can help build a more stable and secure future for Somalia and the wider East Africa region.