Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of September 18th – September 25th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.

In the week under review, Al-Shabaab has conducted more than attacks in Somalia and Kenya. One incident of attempted ambush on Kenyan security patrol team was reported in Alunga vicinity, Lafey of Mandera county. The incident was successfully countered by the army troops killing five militants and recovering their assault rifles. Another incident of abduction reported in Mandera where mason headed towards Lafey town were abducted by suspected Al-Shabaab militants.

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 18^th – September 25^th)

• On September 18^th, A hand grenade was hurled into a busy restaurant in Beledweyne town of Hiran. Initial reports indicate that the grenade targeted government soldiers who are frequent customers of the restaurant. Two civilians were injured in the grenade blast.
• On September 20^th, Explosion hits Beledweyne town. The IED explosion targeted a gathering of SNA in Beledweyne town, the administrative capital of Hiran region of Somalia. One SNA soldier was killed and others injured in the explosion.

• On September 20^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on AMISOM base located in area of Qoqani, Lower Juba repulsed. The militants fired mortar shells from a distance prompting the AMISOM troops to respond and subsequently repelled the attempted attack. No casualties were reported.
• On September 21^st, SNA convoy hit by landmine in Dhusamareb, Galgaduud region. A convoy of Somali National Army and Galmudug state Forces was hit by a landmine one soldier killed and three others injured in the outskirts of Dhusamareb. Also, the landmine destroyed one of the military technical. Similar fighting happened last week in the outskirts of Dhusamareb.
• On September 21^st, Al-Shabaab ambush on Kenyan patrol team in Alungu, Lafey of Mandera NEP successfully countered. Five Al-Shabaab militants killed in the botched raid. The army troops also recovered their assault rifles.
• On September 21^st, Al-Shabaab from different directions raided military base operated by Jubaland security forces in the vicinity of Afmadow, Lower Juba region of Somalia. Details on casualties remains scanty.          
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab artillery battalion carried out mortar attacks on military bases in Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. In Barsanguni, Shabaab fighters fired mortar shells at a Jubbaland military base. Casualties reported.
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab artillery battalion carried out another mortar assault Somali Army troop’s operated base in Barire, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab though its media claimed responsibility saying at least eight SNA soldiers were wounded in a mortar attack on their FOB in Barire area, and the shelling also destroyed parts of the camp.
• On September 23^rd, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants detonated a roadside bomb in Afgooye town in Lower Shabelle region. The explosion killed one person and wounded two others.  Lower Shabelle has witnessed repeat attacks. Al-Shabaab militants attacked security checkpoints in Afgooye in late August.
• On September 23^rd, three non-local constructors abducted by suspected Al-Shabaab militia in Mandera. Police reports indicate that masons who were headed in a public service vehicle to Lafey town for work when the vehicle was flagged down by armed men between Fino and Sheikh Barrow and subsequent abduction.
• On September 24^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed a civilian on accusations of being a sorcerer/magician. Al-Shabaab court sentenced the individual identified as Ahmed Kusane Hassan around Jilib, Middle Juba region of Somalia in front of a huge crowd who had gathered to witness the sentence.
• On September 24^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly carried out attacks in Hiran region, on NISA-SNA operated base in Beledweyne. Two SNA soldiers wounded in the ambush raid. The militants have repeatedly attacked SNA military bases in Beledweyne.
• On September 24^th, Al-Shabaab attempted to stage an attack on AMISOM bases in Hosingow and Qoqani vicinities of Lower Juba.  Reports further indicate the militants has attempted similar raids in Afmadow but all attacks were successfully repulsed with no casualties.
• On September 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a SNA gathering in Afgooye district, Lower Shabelle killing one soldier and wounding two others.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Somalia like many other African countries is struggling to contain the current Corona Virus pandemic. While Ala-Shabaab lacks the scale, capacity, and inclination to deliver effective pandemic assistance, the group’s public messaging suggests that it views the pandemic as an opportunity to further undermine the fledgling government in Mogadishu.

The Al-Qaeda aligned group has maintained a high tempo of IED-borne attacks, demonstrating the capacity to target popular hotels, military outposts, and Somali government operations as the virus circulates and as the Mogadishu government wallows. Given the ongoing tempo of attacks, raises urgent concerns to CT and COIN actors on the group’s ability to access weaponry besides IED precursors.

Nonetheless, Al-Shabaab is known to have infiltrated Somalia port operations and thus it has been able to smuggle weapons and other IED-making precursors. Unless stricter measures are put in place in management of ports to meaningfully disrupt the group’s vicious IED campaign across Somalia, Al-Shabaab’s escalating production of homemade IEDs will continue. Al-Shabaab IED attacks have targeted both military and civilian targets with lethal effect, further challenging an already-feeble government in Mogadishu.

Al-Shabaab controls vast swaths of territory throughout rural parts of Somalia in the country’s south and central areas, while launching attacks against the capital of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab raises money through extorting civilians and businessmen in areas where it maintains influence. Its involvement in the illicit economy also extends to taxing agricultural produce and criminal activities centered around the port in Mogadishu. This steady stream of income has facilitated the group’s ability to smuggle weaponry and manufacture of explosives.

Geopolitical Positioning

Militants have demonstrated a proven ability to project power beyond Somalia and actively is enjoined clans’ politics as the country’s draws closer to elections.  

Poor governance has plagued Somalia for decades. Porous borders, weak security forces, and high levels of corruption contribute to a sense of lawlessness and state failure. An ongoing rift between the Somali central government and federal states over electoral processes has stymied efforts at government reform to which has fully exploited to further its agenda as alternative.

emulating other jihadist groups such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Islamic State in parts of Syria and Iraq, Al-Shabaab strategically winning the masses by playing some critical function by mediating disputes and dispensing its own draconian form of justice. For example, the group has in several occasions through its Islamic court sentenced and executed alleged rapists, sorcerers and magicians with communities under its influence. During this period of Corona Virus, the group also had announced of setting a medical centre to cater for patients in Middle Shabelle. The group also has been conducting sponsored forums and Quranic centres to woo civilians. These strategic endeavors have conferred some sense of legitimacy on the group among segments of the Somali population, despite the group’s unjustified relentless campaign of attacking civilians.

Targeted Killings

These have become part of the group’s modus operandi and have notably increased. Earlier in the month (September 11), a lone Al-Shabaab suicide bomber killed Shafi Rabbi Kahin, a senior Chamber of Commerce official in the southern state of Jubaland. Scores of people were wounded in the attack. US troops based in the country have also been affected in the latest wave of attacks. One US military service member was injured in a car bombing at a military base operated jointly by Somali and African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM) and US military forces in the small town of Jannay Abdalle near Kismayo.

Al-Shabaab has in the past conducted targeted killings on several people it accuses as spies and continues a mission of killings targeting civilians, government soldiers and officials from across the regions of Somalia.

Conclusion

Increasing on surveillance capabilities by the counterterrorism actors will be instrumental in foiling and threat preemptions put in mind that the group also conducts its on surveillance followed by planning and eventual attacks. Stationed scouts to be encouraged several meters surrounding perimeter of individual operating bases. Change of routine on those making supplies to the military bases to minimize ambush and laid IED/landmine assaults.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors not to relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group is seen to be bent on thwarting the forthcoming elections in the Horn of Africa country and if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.