Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, Somalia And DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 18th September – 25th September 2020

The Islamic State Affiliates in the East and Central Africa regions continue to assert themselves in their respective territories with observable and unwavering consistency. The groups have been making noise in the region heightening the threat caused by a global terror organization’s presence in a volatile Sub-Saharan Africa. The groups have created a predictable mode of operation that can be tracked as grenade attacks in Somalia’s capital ambushes, kidnappings, and lootings in Mozambique and DRC. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

In Mozambique, the group is still active it has refocused its effort to capturing territory, attacking security forces, and fortifying its positions in key districts in Cabo Delgado. while the death toll from their attacks has taken a nose dip, the number of attacks and nature of the attacks still makes the group a prominent threat seeing as the group is more powerful and capable than it has ever been since its inception.

The groups in DRC and Mozambique continue their violent campaign targeting both the civilian population and the military. They maintain a similar crude method of operation with beheadings, burning down of buildings, shootings, lootings, and kidnapping as prevalent aspects of their attacks. Both groups continue to show a growing capability and sophistication in their attacks in a worrying trend that would greatly heighten the threat caused by the groups both in their respective countries and the region at large.

ISS in Somalia has broken its inactivity by conducting several attacks on security checkpoints in Mogadishu targeted at Somalia police in a now-familiar grenade-hauling MO in their attacks. The apparent resurfacing of ISS in Mogadishu is an action that is geared reestablishing presence after several weeks of silence.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (10^th September – 17^th September)

Mozambique

• 17^th Sept- 2 people were decapitated by ISCAP terrorists as they chopped wood in Kiwiya village in Pemba district.
• 17^th September- ISCAP terrorists attacked the luxury Isles of Mecungo and Vamisse In Pemba where they razed down resorts and homes.
• 20^th September- insurgents wearing Mozambican military uniforms attacked Litimanda, Macomia district firing into the air to scare residents away as they looted food from several shops.

SOMALIA

• 17^TH September- 3 police officers were killed after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.
• 20^th September- 3 police officers were wounded after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.
• 22^nd September- 1 police officer killed several others wounded after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.

DRC

• 17^th September- A Congolese soldier was shot dead with an automatic weapon in Beni.
• 17^th September- military barracks in Malango, Ituri Province were attacked, one soldier killed and weapons and ammunition seized by ISCAP.
• 20^th September- 12 people, 1 soldier killed by ADF in Mbau vicinity dozen civilian missing
• 22^nd September- 2 people killed, a health center razed and several shops looted in Musuku village in the Batangi-Mbau sector
• 23^rd September- 5 people stabbed to death with knives as several others go missing in Kinyambaore, Rwenzori sector in Beni.

Insights And Analysis

The security problem in Mozambique is further accelerated by the growing mistrust between the military and residents mainly because the insurgents have been donning the military uniform making it difficult to differentiate them. Additionally, last week a video emerged of the military brutally assaulting a woman shotting her 36 times causing international and local uproar despite the vehement denials by the military and government. This has reignited the animosity between the proverbial protector and protected in various regions of Cabo Delgado and as the militancy continues to attack villages in the region adorned in the military uniform the residents have been fleeing to neighboring Tanzania. ISCAP has taken advantage of the mistrust and has been not attacked the residents but rather invade villages, shooting in the air to scare the populace allowing smooth looting met with little resistance as the civilians are as afraid of the military as they are of the terrorist organization.

Owing to Mozambique’s government’s inability to respond to the attacks in Cabo Delgado, it sought the support of the European Union (EU) in the area of specialized military training to combat terrorism and the ISCAP insurgency. Mozambique requested support in training, logistics for the CT forces, medical assistance in the combat zone, and the technical training of personnel in a bid to reinforce the military and security response measures. The support is projected to aid the military and CT actors in preventing the advancement if the terrorists, restoration of law and order in the strategic and resource-rich province of Cabo Delgado.

Like in Mozambique, the relationship between the Congolese military and the civilians of North Kivu and Ituri Provinces is far from sway as in the past the military attacked the civilian population in their ‘efforts’ to root out the jihadists. Thus, Given the overall surge in violence against civilians, the military offensive has done little to endear the Congolese government to the local population. ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. The attack region in Beni is commonly referred to as the death triangle and in the past weeks has been the center-stage for attacks by ISCAP with the attacks occurring in a recurrent manner targeting both the civilian and the military population. The attacks have seen the main access road in the axis closed from the public use a move that has disrupted the economic standing or Mbau and by extension the Beni territory.

While S.I. continues to track and monitor the activities of the group in both countries, we also warn that lack of holistic CT strategies could hinder the current and future operations that could quite possibly result in the expansion of the groups both across territories and borders. The Islamic State continues to pose a threat that needs to not be addressed by military interventions but also by addressing the root cause of the insurgency. This is especially true because while the group may hibernate and retreat historically the group only reemerges more revitalized and revamped to attack and cause maximum damage before it is quashed. Needless to say, the Islamic State affiliates in Africa have been positioned and sponsored by ISIS-Central to take the core agenda of the organization global, exploit local grievances and injustices, overexert local rebels and jihadists to attack, create fear and continue to make the group relevant.