Weekly Counter Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 5th – February 12th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Executive Summary

Persistent reports of extremist activity from across Africa have deepened concern over the spread of radicalism on the continent. In East Africa, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab continue to pose threat to military targets besides infrastructural establishments in Somalia and extending its insurgency in Kenya.

Al-Shabaab extremist group continue to capitalize on political and security vacuums especially in Somalia to grow its support base and consolidate their strength. Somalia is faced by political crisis after the term of President Farmajo expired on February 8. Mogadishu administration and regional states’ leaders have been unable to agree on how to end the current stalemate. The political crisis in Somalia continue to work at the advantage of Al-Shabaab militant group that is exploiting the opportunity to wage attacks.

Al-Shabaab operational regions remains central and southern Somalia, where the militant group still controls large swathes of the named regions. In Gedo, Al-Shabaab militants besides clan militias remains active. Insecurity in Gedo continue to spill into the border prefectures with Kenya, Mandera county suffering the brunt of insecurity. The militant’s groups continue to activate cells along the border to conduct attacks in Mandera especially targeting communication infrastructures and also targeting on public service vehicles.

In the past one week, the number of attacks claimed and recorded have declined as compared the past weeks of January. Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the week under review, the Islamist militants recorded a number of attacks all from across regions of Somalia and in Kenya.

Recently Claimed Attacks (February 5^th – 12^th February)

• On February 6^th, At least one killed and one injured in an explosion near Mogadishu’s KM4 junction. An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated near the KM4 junction in Mogadishu, Somalia late Feb. 6. The incident, which reportedly occurred near the Afrik Hotel, left one person dead and one injured. The target of the attack is believed to have been a vehicle.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack on Somali National Army base in Luuq district in Gedo region, southern Somalia. Local sources reported there were casualties from both sides.
• On February 7^th, In Arbaow area of ​​Lower Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab claimed to have AMISOM’s FOB operated by Uganda troops. Details on casualties remain unclear.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a convoy of AMISOM’s Ugandan troops between Ambareeso and Barawe districts in Lower Shabelle region, killing two soldiers and wounding two others.
• On February 7^th, At least twelve security forces were on Sunday killed by a roadside bomb planted outside a Somali town of Dhusamareb, Galgadud central Somalia where political leaders had been meeting to try to resolve a row over a presidential selection process.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have officials of Jubaland administration in the vicinity of Kismayo. The attack left Mohamed Khalif, a senior official with Ministry of Fisheries injured alongside two others.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a Kenyan police station at Jabi area in Mandera county of NEP Kenya.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab attacked a military base belonging to Djiboutian troops in Middle Shabelle, but the forces managed to repulse. No casualties were reported as per local sources.
• On February 8^th, An Al-Shabaab attack on SNA FOB base at Raaxoi, north of Bal’ad town, Middle Shabelle region reported. The scale of the attack unclear.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Ethiopian troops in a battle in Hudur district of Bay and Bakool regions. Initial reports as per local sources indicate that the militants ambushed the AMISOM troops. One soldier was killed and another was injured.
• On February 9^th, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) placed near a police station in the vicinity of Mogadishu’s Eng. Yariisow Stadium successfully detonated. No injuries were reported. No group claimed responsibility for having set the bomb; however, Al-Shabaab frequently conducts similar attacks using IEDs.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab attacked AMISOM bases in Bulo Marer and Qoryoley in southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed Burundian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops in Jowhar in central Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab attacked an AMISOM base in Afmadow district in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted Kenyan security forces outpost in Khorof Harar sub-county of Wajir, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.

Analysis/Observations

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab cardinal objective is to wage insurgency to destabilize East Africa region in an effort to advance the group’s radical ideologies besides the group’s wish to form an Islamic caliphate.

Notable, Al-Shabaab primary remains military targets and government establishments. Civilian targets however have been a frequent target of the Islamists militants in the regions of Somalia.

The Islamists militant group continues to destabilize the federal government by carrying out attacks, bombings and assassination campaigns against security forces, government officials and civilians targets persistently. According to a UN report, its attacks have become more lethal in recent years, as the group has acquired the capacity to manufacture its own homemade explosives. IEDs and ambush attacks on military targets have spiked from the last quarter of 2020 and the trend has changed so far.

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab terrorist group continue to claim responsibility for the attacks through their various online propaganda media channels. Its worrisome that the latest series of attacks confirms that Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement both small and large-scale attacks in Somalia continue to target both civilians and military targets at a time Somalia at a time the election talks in Somalia failed to reach a compromise in Dhusamareb.

The recent attacks in Dhusamareb, Galgadud region of central Somalia also signals Al-Shabaab’s ability to target senior officials during this current political discourse. There are troubling indicators that Al-Shabaab could further intensify its attacks in the coming days and weeks. Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I.) forecast that Al-Shabaab militants will continue targeting electoral meetings and political officials. Farmajo has called for another meeting with regional states’ leaders preferring the talks be held in Mogadishu.

In the week under review, no major event has been recorded on Kenya, another target of Al-Shabaab. Nonetheless, this should not be misconstrued that the terror threat is no more, thus appropriate CT and COIN measures need to be put in place in order to pick on the possible enemy signatures along the volatile border prefectures with Somalia.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa regions in an effort to provide actionable intelligence towards thwarting and disrupting militant’s activities in the region.