Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 5th February – 12th February 2021

The Islamic State provinces in East and Central Africa that are ISCAP in Mozambique and Democratic Republic of Congo and Abnaa Ul Calipha in Somalia have exhibited a lull in activities in the herein referenced week. With Mozambique’s and Somalia’s arms showing a significant decline in their activities while their counterpart in DRC showing a group that is reinvigorated and with a mission to capture and have a significant presence in Beni’s Rwenzori sector. While that is just the observables for the week the groups have displayed their capabilities and especially in the previous week where the groups in Mozambique and DRC conducted large-scale attacks both in terms of geographical reach and high-causality-attacks.

The military in Mozambique has been tightening the noose on the activities of ISCAP with active operation in Mocimboa da Praia and regions along the Messalo river where a huge number of militants in what is believed to be the largest encampment is located. On the other hand, in DRC the militants appear to be attacking civilians to loot and restock as well as the military to acquire weapons and ammo that are later used to conduct attacks against the Congolese populace. The latest intelligence indicates that the militants have been attacking the Rwenzori sector, a region that would offer the militants strategic geographical advantage in the event of its capture.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (5^th – 12^th February 202)

DRC

• 4^th Feb- at least 3 soldiers were killed in clashes between ISCAP and Congolese troops in Mwenda, Rwenzori sector. Weapons and ammo were seized from the retreating troops by the armed militants.
• 5^th Feb- one civilian was killed in Ngadu, Rwenzori sector by ISCAP.
• 5^th Feb- 11 people killed in Kamole village near Mwenda, in continuing violent campaign by ISCAP in Rwenzori sector, Beni
• 6^th Feb- 14 people were killed in Mabule village, Rwenzori sector. Intelligence revealed that their throats were brutally slit.
• 8^th Feb- 10 people killed in Kabembeu near Mwenda by jihadists.

• 8^th Feb- 5 people killed among them two men and three women in Hulangupa, Rwenzori sector. The victims were shot dead.

• 9th Feb- 10 people were stabbed to death in Kithovinwa in the Rwenzori sector in a violent campaign that took a few days in the sector as the militants attempted to take control of the sector.
• 11^th Feb- ISCAP attempted to attack Rwenzori’s capital Mutwanga but the attack was repelled by the military in gunfire that lasted a few hours and left at least 1 terrorist dead and two; a Ugandan and Congolese arrested in the aftermath. Additionally, two youths previously held hostage by the militants were rescued.

Mozambique

• 5^th Feb- Mozambican troops and ISCAP insurgents clashed near Chinda in Muidumbe district.
• 5^th Feb- Government-backed militia based in Mueda attacked and drove away ISCAP insurgents near Ntchinga in Muidumbe district.
• 9^th Feb- 3 ISCAP members reportedly surrendered to authorities in Pemba as the military continues to launch operations against the militants.

Observations and Insights

In DRC, as evidenced by the herein highlighted statistics the number of attacks especially in the Rwenzori sector of the Beni region is on a steady rise an indicator that the group has been trying to establish bases in the region. The attacks which were conducted successfully in a few-days span continue to exhibit the group’s growing capabilities and abilities to attack regions that have an active military presence. While attacks have been consistent, it also shows that the group is using both guns and crude weapons as well as targeting the military in a bid to equip its growing population.

In the Beni region, fear among the residents of the Rwenzori sector is at an all-time high as residents lament the growing number of ADF terrorists active in the villages. Recurring incursions especially in the villages that are near the sector’s capital, Mutwanga. The spate of attacks has prevented residents from accessing their fields, looting property including livestock and valuables as the people flee from the militants despite military presence. The absence of the well-equipped and adequately motivated military and peacekeepers offers suitable and exploitable conditions for the group to establish camps and conduct attacks.

On the other hand, while attacks have increased in DRC, in Mozambique the attacks by ISCAP appear to have hit a lull in the period highlighted that has continued since the beginning of the year. 2020 was the year that the group conducted the most attacks and claimed the most lives in its history. Intelligence indicates that the decline in attacks and activities by ISCAP in Cabo Delgado is partially because of increased government intervention as well as the rainy season which leveled the playing field. The military with the help of aerial bombardments has taken active steps to launch a comprehensive operation to recapture Mocimboa da Praia a key port city that has been under ISCAP control since August 2020. Additionally, the defense forces have been launching offensive attacks against the militants around the Messalo River where the largest ISCAP base is purported to be located, and preliminary intelligence projects that the dismantling of the bases would be a huge setback for the militants who still conduct periodic attacks in Nangade, Muidumbe and Palma Districts of Cabo Delgado province. Intelligence in recent months indicates that core IS has recognized the success of ISCAP and accordingly, sent funding and reinforcement of trainers and strategists through a preexisting network of regional facilitators and logisticians.

While the province is far from stable and sustainable security, the resumption of work by Total is an indicator that the security situation is improving in the larger parts of the province. The return of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International in Macomia district is also a positive sign of improved security as well and a needed boost to the dire humanitarian condition in the region. To further support the humanitarian mission Japan is set to donate $4.2 million to support the growing number of IDPs affected by ISCAP attacks in the province.

Notably, Portugal has projected that she would start training Mozambican troops by April of 2021 with marines and commandos who will offer the necessary training support to equip the military with the capabilities to fight terrorism in Cabo Delgado. In late 20202, the Portuguese Defence Minister Joao Gomes Cravinho announced a team would work with the Mozambican government to draw up a strategy to train local forces hence the plans are expected to now materialize leading to the deployment of at least 1,435 forces in April. It’s important to note that while President Nyusi’s acceptance of Portugal’s help is an important step in bolstering defenses against the insurgency, it is clear Nyusi is keen to ensure that Mozambican sovereignty furthermore remains intact.