Executive Summary
The Al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab has continued to launch attacks in Somalia, hindering the much need humanitarian efforts to fight the spread of coronavirus. At the same time, political impasse continues, tensions reported from across the region; notably in the country’s capital, Mogadishu as outgoing President refuse to cede power and allow the county go into polls. His term expired on February 8, but following the unconstitutional vote by lawmakers of Somalia parliament, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo is still occupying villa Somalia.
Though attacks have slightly reduced in the past seven days as compared to the past weeks of April and citing its Ramadhan period whereby suicide mission for jihadists seeking martyrdom are expected, slight decline in attacks should not warrant laxity by counterterrorism assets in Somalia but should be an opportunity to seal any security loophole subsequently to deny the blood-thirsty terrorists an opportunity to strike.
Lull has been witnessed from the Kenya’s prefectures prone to terror attacks citing the common volatile border with Somalia, the home-base of Al-Shabaab. Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu have experienced the brunt of Al-Shabaab. Non-locals, security forces, outposts and communication masts are key targets of the Islamist militants. Public service vehicles are also targeted. Kenyan security assets should remain vigilant throughout Ramadhan period. Collaboration with locals much encouraged as they can very be very instrumental in providing actionable intelligence from the local level. Surveillance and scouting around the perimeters of defense posts encouraged besides change of routine by patrol units.
In the week under review, Al-Shabaab has conducted nearly ten attacks in from across regions of Somalia. Notably, security forces, local and foreign troops remain Al-Shabaab’s primary targets.
AS Recently Claimed Attacks (April 16th – April 23rd)
- On April 17th, A senior military commander, Yasin Tohow killed in a roadside bomb near Gololey village, located between Balad and Jowhar. Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Several SNA soldiers sustained injuries. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
- On April 17th, At least four people were killed and six injured after a suicide bomber detonated in the town of Baidoa, located in the Bay region of southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying the attack was aimed at the governor of the Bay region.
- On April 18th, Al-Shabaab announces fighters seizing city without resistance. Al-Shabaab media released photos of its fighters inside Ba’adweyn town west of the coastal town of Hobyo in Somalia’s Mudug region. AS fighters seen inside Ba’adweyn and nearby military base after Somali govt forces reportedly vacated the town and retreated towards Hobyo.
- On April 20th, A roadside blast targeted a vehicle carrying Somali government officials as per local sources. The blast took place in Darusalem neighborhood on the outskirts of Mogadishu killed the deputy commissioner for political affairs of the Daynile district administration. Three civilians were injured. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
- On April 21st, fifteen people died and four others were wounded Wednesday when the minibus they were travelling in ran over a landmine on the outskirts of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the minibus travelling along the road between Mogadishu and Balcad ran over a landmine killing and wounding innocent civilians.
- On April 21st, At least three people were killed and four others wounded when a mortar attack targeted Somalia’s presidential palace in the capital Mogadishu on Wednesday, as per local reports. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the mortar attack, saying it had targeted Villa Somalia, official presidential residence and workplace. It is the second mortar attack in less than a month targeting the presidential palace.
- On April 21st, Explosions in Mogadishu’s Bondhere District; unconfirmed number of casualties reported. The blasts were reportedly caused by mortar fire and impacted areas near Villa Somalia. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) was also key target of the mortar shelling.
- April 22nd, Suspected Shabaab Gunmen shot and killed well known dermatologist in Al-Baraka area of Mogadishu, reports. Dr Hassan Osman Isse (Dr Burane) was attacked while leaving his house as per local media sources.
- April 23rd, Men armed with pistols shot dead government soldier seize his weapon in Mogadishu’s Hodan district. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility of the attack, saying their assassins killed “commander’ from Turkish trained Gorgor forces in Haantadheer neighborhood.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
While a slight decline has been noted in Somalia and Kenya, another key target of the Al-Shabaab, this must not be misconstrued that terror threat is minimal; far from it. During the period of Ramadhan, terror threat remains all-time high and security assets urged to stay put and remain on high alert in their respective areas of responsibility.
Toxic politics continues in Somalia despite international community sending warning shots on Federal Government of Somalia to return to the negotiating table to unlock the current impasse. The US especially has been on Somalia’s current political unfolding where Farmajo through unconstitutional political maneuvers, his term was extended by Parliament. Top US military chief says Washington concern has shifted from Al-Shabaab to Farmaajo term extension.
AU, IGAD also recently raised their concerns on Somalia’s much delay elections as a recipe for chaos and anarchy at a time the unstable country is battling with COVID-19 and Al-Shabaab insurgency. AU specifically has rejected Farmajo’s term extension, terming the move “unprecedented” instead calling for round table talks to solve the already escalating political scenario.
The shaky political situation in the Horn of Africa nation of Somalia. Al-Shabaab is keen on political unfolding and highly likely the jihadist movement is banking on slight mistakes security-wise to executes attacks of proportionate measures. Exploiting the current situation is very possible in Somalia in the coming days and maybe weeks. Counterterrorism assets urged to up their strategies to contain both political crises building up especially in Mogadishu and at the same time decisively countering the Islamist Al-Shabaab and pro-ISIS militants operating in northern Somalia.
Beefing up security around the perimeters on previously targeted defenses posts/operating bases much encouraged during (Ramadhan period) and after. Suicide missions and ambushes remain preferred attack types. IEDs, roadside and landmines attacks and targeted killings/assassinations also noted.
Attack patterns haven’t changed, Al-Shabaab continue to operate from across the regions of Somalia but much preference has been witnessed from regions in central and southern Somalia. Defense operating bases in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Bay and Bakool, Middle Shabelle, Mogadishu , Mudug regions to upscale security and counter-measures.
