The Al Qaeda branch in Somalia, Shabaab al Mujahideen has adopted a Sun Tsu move for now “Never Interrupt Your Enemy When He Is Making A Mistake”.
The terrorist group has put on hold its bloody Ramadhan offensive in Somalia, and instead opted to relish the specter of sociopolitical conflict manifesting in the impoverished and conflicted Horn nation from its bases and camps. Terrorists often exploit domestic sociopolitical and economic downturns to their advantage, and when that is back up by a declining security situation, the results are significantly alarming.
An armed conflict between the factions of the Somali Armed Forces was reported Sunday 25th of April 2021 by intelligence operators in the Capital Mogadishu. These events if unchecked will lead to a deliberate or accidental return to sustained armed conflict across the fragile country. The weak security, legal, and constitutional institutions are weakening under the immense pressure from myriads of factors particularly clannish loyalties and political interests. Unfortunately, the political conflict orchestrated by former President Mohamed Big-Cheese Farmaajo, is playing out perfectly, just as the terrorists wished.
2 opposition leaders reported they were attacked by Somali Army belligerents during Iftar besides reports of mortar fire targeting Villa Somalia. SNA deployed several Turkish APC’s and Technicals (Armed Land-cruiser Pickups) but were repulsed by members of the Army who’ve taken the opposition side. Several lives were lost in the day long melee.
The FGS, which the domestic political leadership terms as illegitimate, will claim the opposition militias are elements drawn from the Al-Qaeda affiliate Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen and its allies from the local clans. Subsequently, Somali armed forces will attack these belligerent who are also members of the Somali National Army (SNA) but have sworn fealty to the opposition. This is perfect fodder for the terror group. They’ll target the FGS and its militia and recruit from the disenfranchised and unpaid force. Shabaab al Mujahideen will avoid pursuing political leadership in Somalia, instead, they’ll opt to remain a quasi-government until a time they make concessions with the political class and have a radical Islamist government in place. This will preserve the Emir and his Shura Council from embargoes by the international community and possibly charges of war crimes and terrorism.
