The term of Somalia’s Federal Government (FGS) under Mohamed Farmaajo came to an unceremonious end on February 8th 2021. As expected, the end would be chaotic despite some milestones. A Week later, the incumbent is yet to leave office to pave way for Presidential elections. Instead, he has waged war against country’s political class, the aspirants for the Presidential position, media, and Federal Member States. The outcome of this political extremism is a myriad of complex possibilities including a polarized public, poor or almost zero accountability, disfranchised Federal Member States (FMS), resurgence of city based clan militia, and return of the Al-Qaeda branch Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen in the capital Mogadishu. The inevitable consequence of political extremism is of course violence, and the flag has been raised.
The mandate of executive and legislature in Somalia ended creating a gapping power vacuum, thus any action both take on behalf of Somalia is unilateral. Somalia’s Fragility is in its climate doomsterism, the precipitation of violence is consistently building up. The warnings about impending fracturing are sour to country’s political stalwarts but instead of easing the tensions, they have turned hardliners. . Farmmajo’s medieval feudalism hasn’t worked rather ostracized Federal Member States, Clans, and Political Class leading to deep rooted sociopolitical fissures.
Violence is an inevitable consequence of political extremism
Farmaajo is politically and diplomatically clumsy. An oaf in all fairness.
Political violence can spin out of control quickly, with ugly consequences. Repressive regimes and autocracies often underestimate the determination of other political factions and their followers. What we are likely to see in Somalia is the decline of ‘a declining Federal State’. This decline is a display of internal fragmentation and the subsequent political violence.
The people of Somalia will lose confidence in political institutions and centrist politicians will be discredited, particularly Farmaajo and his patrons — leading to the rise of extremists, the flag of Al-Qaeda will fly in Mogadishu again as the extremists promised earlier this year. The climate is perfect for the return. Social cohesion, national unity, and political discipline will decline quickly and political factions will start viewing each other as great enemies leading to violence under the flag of fringe groups. Somalia has all these symptoms so far.
