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Political Stalemate in Somalia Escalating, Analysts Warn of Unfolding Events Could Slip Horn of Africa Nation Back into Full-blown Civil War

by Shmuel Yosef Agnon
February 22, 2021
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Political Stalemate in Somalia Escalating, Analysts Warn of Unfolding Events Could Slip Horn of Africa Nation Back into Full-blown Civil War

Political Crisis in the Capital Escalates

Political stalemate in Somalia continue to worsen and escalating triggering unprecedented clashes especially in the capital Mogadishu. Politicians and analysts warn that the unfolding events could highly likely slip the Horn of Africa Nation back into a full-blown civil war. Clashes in Mogadishu now throw Somalia’s political crisis into dangerous new phase.

Protests and unrests have been witnessed in the capital Mogadishu since the term of President Farmajo expired on February 8. Since then, the federal government and federal member states have been unable to reach a compromise. Subsequently, clashes have been witnessed in the capital Mogadishu between the federal government and supporters of opposition presidential candidates and the events unfolding could escalate the country’s days.

Tensions have been building up in Somalia for months over the delayed elections. The country’s political leaders both from Farmajo led faction and the opposition remain deadlocked on how to proceed despite months of encouragement and pressure from U.N. officials and international community.

Last week Thursday and Friday, the capital Mogadishu woke to gun and mortar shelling directed by the government in an effort to prevent the opposition supporters from holding a protest. Opposition leaders have categorically noted that they no longer recognize Farmajo as president as his term came to an end though the president and his allies insist, he is still in power.

Farmajo is using the country’s army machinery to intimidate the opposition and their supporters. SNA soldiers in armored vehicles continue to be deployed in the streets, sealing off other major streets in the capital to thwart any attempt of the opposition holding the protests.

Last week Thursday specifically, a heavy gunfire was reported after government soldiers attacked a hotel where two former presidents who are now opposition presidential candidates, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, were staying.

The move has prompted opposition leaders to write to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) calling on the body to intervene on what is happening in Somalia. In the statement which was also copied to several international actors, the 15 candidates asked the UNSC to intervene and prevail upon Farmajo to hand over power, resign or otherwise facilitate smooth transition by handing over to a transitional council. They also noted that Farmajo should be ‘punished’ for attempted assassination of some key leaders.

The Horn of Africa Nation was set to hold elections from December last year but the stakeholders have been blaming each other over failure to implement the agreement that was signed in September. The political fallout is worsening each passing day. The future of the country is now bleak and the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab is following closely, possibly planning and hatching a plot on opportune time to strike. Frequent attacks are resuming in the capital. Strategic Intelligence (SI) forecast in the coming days and months if the stalemate is not resolved, the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s attacks will continue to be concentrated in Mogadishu and worse still, Somalia could sink back into full-blown political crisis besides a civil war.

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