Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 12th – February 19th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted the Horn of Africa, Somalia with those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat in East Africa region raising many questions about Al-Shabaab’s incentives for expansion in the Somalia and beyond, the risks of this expansion, and the possible scenarios to combat the Islamist militant group that has waged its deadly insurgency in the horn of African country for more than a decade.

In the past week, Al-Shabaab activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia.   The Attacks have been concentrated over the weekend in Mudug, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Lower Juba and in the capital, Mogadishu and its neighborhood claiming multiple attacks. The attacks trend /pattern shows that the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia targeting local and foreign troops bases and convoys.

The Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab claimed nearly ten attacks from across the regions of Somalia and Kenya. In the period under review, Al-Shabaab claimed at least one low profile terror incident reported in Wajir, NEP Kenya targeting reservist security officers. Nevertheless, Kenyan counterterrorism actors urged to maintain vigilance especially in upper and lower NEP counties where militants’ movements and sightings from possible local cells have been reported in a number of times.      

Recently Claimed Attacks (February 12^th – February 19^th)

• On February 13^th, A car bomb (suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device – SVBIED) exploded in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, near Villa Somalia killing at least two people and wounding several others. The car bomb, targeted a checkpoint used by government forces to search vehicles at the Sayidka intersection that is near Presidential palace and Parliament building which are heavily guarded.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab militants shot and killed three cleaners working for Somalia’s Ministry of Defense in the capital Mogadishu.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed successful attacks on Somali government troops in Awdheengle and Mubarak localities of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The militant group propaganda channels (websites) promoted the outcome of the attack by displaying photos of two slain soldiers besides showing their guns.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab fighters engaged SNA troops operating in a government base in Wardhiigley district in Mogadishu in a gun battle. Local reports indicate that there were casualties from both sides.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed mortar shells on AMISOM base inside Bardhere airport in Gedo region operated by Ethiopian troops. No casualties were reported.
• On February 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted Police Reservist patrol in Khorof Haraar, Wajir County, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported in the brief clash.
• On February 17^th, heavy fighting reported in Mudug region of central Somalia. Heavily armed Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed Jiic Dheer village, about 18km from Bacadweyne. At least five SNA soldiers were killed and several others were injured in the attack. Troops in two technical vehicles that left Bacadweyne came under heavy fire from Al-Shabaab fighters as per local sources.
• On February 18^th, Harakat Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) carried out planned operations in various parts of Mogadishu. The militants carried out the first operation in parts of Karaan district of Mogadishu and killed an official of the government identified as Mohamed Owbakar Shadoor.
• On February 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed another attack in Howlwadag district of Mogadishu. The militants claimed to have killed a prison guard identified as Abdi Qadir Hassan.

Assessment &Observations

The primary goal of attacking local and foreign troops besides other establishments of interests remains unchanged for the Islamist militants in Somalia.

The use of landmines, roadside IEDs, RCIEDs remains preferred attack types by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, guerilla ambushes targeting both local and foreign troops in Somalia are on the rise. The use of suicide mission is also being employed targeting on military bases and places suspected to host government and allied officials especially in busy restaurants in the capital Mogadishu.

Targeted attacks in Mogadishu continue to be observed. Also attack near Presidential Palace (Villa Somalia) and also close at the Parliament building confirms of Al-Shabaab determination to strike at the heart of even the heavily fortified zones or facilities in the capital.

The militants have increased guerilla ambush attacks on troop’s convoys as well as their military bases notably in southern Somalia’s, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba recording repeat attacks taking advantage of the terrain and thickets to successfully conduct their operations.

Repeated clashes in recent months in the southern Mudug region between government forces and Al Shabaab fighters have been reported whereby local and foreign troops remain primary targets.

Repeat attacks continue to be witnessed in Gedo region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab continue to stage ambush attacks on AMISOM convoys and patrol units in this region. Ethiopian bases have been key targets of the Islamists Al-Shabaab in Gedo prefectures.

Al-Shabaab propaganda media channels continue to promote the groups ideals and objectives. The group’s though various pro-websites promoted the outcome of attacks in Awdheengle and Mubarak, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The groups paraded corpses of two soldiers and displayed their guns before crowds. This is a sign of intimidation to the locals not to collaborate with security troops within their respective areas.

Repeat attacks trend reported in Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab militants attacked two African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) bases in Lower Shabelle region on February 10. Al-Shabaab also attacked AMISOM bases in Bulo Marer and Qoryoley in southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region on February 10. Al-Shabaab also ambushed SNA troops in Lower Shabelle region on February 2.

Al-Shabaab Al-Kataib media released the final episode of its documentary series criticizing the Somali Federal Government (SFG) on February 15. The sixth episode blames the Somali President and SFG for sowing divisions between Somali clans and allowing foreign interference in the country. Al-Shabaab released its fifth episode on February 13. Al-Shabaab released the fourth episode of its documentary series criticizing the Somali Federal Government (SFG) on February 11. The fourth episode condemns alleged Ethiopian influence over the SFG.

Political crisis continues in the war-torn Somalia. The SFG delayed an elections meeting scheduled for February 15 in Puntland State’s capital after Puntland and Jubbaland State officials disagreed on the meeting’s location. The SFG failed to hold federal presidential elections scheduled for February 8.

Conclusion

The Al-Qaeda branch operating in East Africa remains effective and dangerous despite constant targeting by local and foreign counterterrorism partners. Though the prominent militant group has suffered immense casualties from multiple large-scale targeting by both domestic and foreign forces, the militant resilience continues to stand out even in the face of consistent joint military pressure in support of the weak federal government forces. Undoubtedly, Al-Shabaab will continues to morph, fragment, and reassemble, rather than disappear.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s increased activity. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in East Africa region.