The United States designated Islamic State Somalia (ISS) alternatively known as Abnaa Ul-Calipha as a terrorist organization on 27 February 2018 based on the rationale that the group was associated with Islamic State Central’s leadership through the Group’s leader pledge of allegiance. The terror group is headed by Sheikh Abdulqadir Mumin, a former al Shabaab ideological leader who pledged allegiance to the Caliph and the Islamic State caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on 22 October 2015. The latest intelligence shows that the group has approximately 300 fighters located in the rural regions of Puntland.
ISS started shakily in what is being viewed as a failed attempt at launching the global terror organization in East Africa. It has not been able to launch large-scale attacks like is a counterpart, Al-Shabaab, has been able to do in Somalia or in the neighboring countries. It has largely been based out of its headquarters in Puntland located in the north of the country and it was not until 2018 that the group has increased its scope of attacks to include assassination in Mogadishu and parts of southern Somalia.
While ISS remains an irrelevant threat in Somalia compared to inter-clan wars and al Shabaab, it poses a threat that would grow to be lethal especially if it makes headways in conducting consistent attacks both in the country and region at large. The group is slowly gaining momentum as it has increased attacks in Mogadishu a region that has been predominantly al Shabaab’s operating ground. Intelligence reports indicate that ISS has been able to turn some key Amniyat (Al-Shabaab’s intelligence wing) members to defect and conduct attacks on behalf of the latter.
By October 2018, the Islamic State had claimed responsibility for over 80 attacks in Somalia with a relative upsurge in attacks in 2018. The statistics show that the group has been gaining momentum especially with a huge number of attacks conducted in Mogadishu and Afgooye which shows a change in focus from Puntland. ISS has favored close quarters assassinations and shootings majorly targeting Somali security forces as well as businessmen.
Since its inception, ISS has appeared more appealing based on ideology and the treatment of foreign fighters as it attempts to forge a ‘global jihadi’ feel a factor that has increased defections from al Shabaab who are infamous for maltreating foreign fighters within their ranks. Both ISS and ISIS central have forged a path that lures foreign fighters through a systemically fair treatment and allowing qualified and motivated foreign fighters to plan and execute attacks in the name of Jihad.
It is quite evident that ISIS in Iraq and Syria has been losing ground and as such the fighters both local and foreign are seeking refuge in different countries if not returning to their home countries. ISS in Somalia could pose a greater threat if it were to receive and provide a haven for experienced fighters fleeing war in the Middle East a move that could give the terror organization the needed push. Somalia has been identified as suitable and fertile ground both geographically and ideologically to provide a small but lethal offshoot for ISIS to operate both in Africa and the Middle East using the Gulf of Aden as an access point.
Factors that influence Abnaa Ul-Calipha’s Survival in Somalia
- Access to weapons and established links with piracy routes and syndicates. Previously ISS has received weapons and training from ISIS in Yemen through the Gulf.
- The clan and political complexities in Somalia give the group opportunity to bribe and intimidate business and government actors to facilitate the advancement of the group’s agenda, especially in Puntland.
- The spread of fear and propaganda, the group’s notoriety in intimidating and forcing businessmen to provide resources, food, and finance for the group in Puntland and especially Bari region. Also, in Mogadishu, there is a great fear of assassinations which can be viewed as crucial in the spread of ISS’ influence.
- Law enforcement officers are demoralized and demotivated mainly due to lack of salaries and as such, it is easy to threaten or bribe them to look the other way.
- Abnaa Ul-Calipha has been able to tap into a pool of foreign fighters those defecting from al Shabaab for mistreatment, fighters from East African countries, and Somali diaspora in Europe and the Americas.
- Proximity to the Middle East and North Africa where experienced fighters can cross over from and join the ranks of ISS.
- Ideologically, ISS is more welcoming to all members willing to join, local or foreign as it fosters a more global jihadi outlook.
- The group’s leader, Mumin has most likely established relationships and recruitment networks through his charisma and vast living years in Europe.
- The group has established a funding network from fellow clansmen and businessmen in places that the group controls either voluntarily or through coercion and intimidation.
Future Trajectory Of Abnaa Ul-Calipha In Somalia And Beyond
In the north of Somalia, ISS is marred by the lack of adequate resources, redefections back to al-Shabaab, lack of media presence and personnel and a presumably ill Emir. Therefore, the future of ISS has doubtless moved to the south central Somalia where the attacks have increased major in 2018 as compared to the past years. In Mogadishu, a substantial number of al Shabaab’s Amniyat members have defected to ISS and to that effect have been conducting close quarter attacks in Mogadishu and its outskirts on behalf of ISS.
In terms of ideology, ISS has remained more attractive and legitimate as compared to al Shabaab. Rough estimates from intelligence on the ground show that 90% of al Shabaab members that joined the group for ideological reasons support ISS but were afraid to defect for fear of persecution and assassination. This is a clear indication that in the future ISS could be a greater threat not only because it could attract members of larger ISIS but also pull members from Al Shabaab boosting it potential to be more dangerous than al Shabaab is in the Horn of Africa.
As of 2018, the attacks by ISS away from its base in Puntland have increased and especially in Mogadishu and Afgooye where there have been over 30 and 15 attacks respectively as compared to less than 10 in each in the previous year. While the group has favored close quarters assassinations, sources reveal that the ISS has been training explosive experts to increase the scope and types of attacks to match up with their rivals and change the dynamics of ISS in Somalia. Moreover, ISS’ link with piracy syndicates is very crucial as it would offer the necessary transport infrastructure to move recruits, fighters and other resources from state to state as well as from allies in the Gulf and the Middle East.
ISS has appeared open-minded in their types of attack and as such if the group expands unchecked it could pose a great threat in the East African region. Previously, ISS had recruited professional especially those in medical and science-related fields to explore the viability of a biological weapon in Kenya and as such can be exploited for the same.
ISS could be a parent group to small but potentially lethal Islamist groups in the larger East and Central Africa and cold mobilize those in Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, D.R. Congo and Mozambique to create an alliance of Islamic State terror organization that could prosper the agenda in Africa as ISIS central is defeated in Iraq and Syria.
