Somalia’s Marehan Tribesmen Declare War on Kenya and Jubbaland Ogadeni

Carelessly, Somalia’s President’s Tribe, the Marehan, issued a statement through a video recording published in the virtual environment threatening and declaring war on the Republic of Kenya. Few days ago, unidentified members of the same tribe threatened to wipe out the Ogaden tribesmen and their families in Jubbaland prefecture. Both events haven’t gained much publicity as would be the case. Maybe, due to the sensitivity of the content or the targeted audience is unique. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) team accessed and analyzed both publications, the video recording, and the letter. As usual, S.I intelligence teams always look at the bigger picture and brings clarity to context. First of all, we imply despite the seriousness of the present political and security crisis, the greatest danger to the future security of Somalia is Mogadishu’s ruling elite, and patronage inclination to impose ethno-political solutions with the use of Clannish military power in most of its federal states.

What else is out there?

Social media (Social Media Intelligence) provides modern intelligence teams with troves of critical data for production and analysis, and S.I is always exploiting all that. The events in Somalia are quite interesting. There have been strategic changes at the country’s security intelligence and military leadership. These could have factored this sabre rattling. However, it’s the claim by some non-state actors that the new Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Fahad Yassin, was recently in Ethiopia seeking help to crush the Ogaden political establishment in Kismayu, the capital of Jubbaland, that further giving credence to the claim that the Marehan tribesmen patronizing the political establishment in Mogadishu plan to directly or indirectly, conduct a bloody purge targeting the Ogadenis in Jubbaland.

The recent elections in Jubbaland continue widening the sociopolitical rift in Somalia and to a certain extent, diplomatic and bilateral ties with neighboring Kenya. So far, FGS at Mogadishu continues to aggravate the already bad situation, its agents captured and detained Federal State Minister of Security, accusing him of war crimes. Redirecting of all flights to Kismayu City to stop-over/detour Mogadishu is also aggression towards President Madobe of Jubbaland and indirectly, the Republic of Kenya. An amateurish posturing, probably meant to replicate Nairobi’s air-traffic policy on flights from Somalia. Unknown to Mogadishu, Nairobi Aviation Intelligence chiefs have intercepted 5 Somali’s carrying ammo and parts of weaponry and a Saudi national who made it to Nairobi in suspect modes. Nairobi is an aviation hub, and cannot risk compromising the security of thousands of travelers who transit through JKIA,making FGS moves lack sagacity. 

Does it Affect Kenya?

Perhaps President Farmaajo’s handlers are overzealous in their attempt to upstage President Madobe and along these lines spite neighboring Kenya who they accuse of supporting the incumbent President. But that’s way too hapless diplomatically. The ogadens are descendants and part of the Somali population, declaring war on them is criminal, a prejudice for they aren’t lesser humans.  

The Marehan inhabit the borderline regions thus Kenya’s neighbors. Threatening Kenya can be viewed as sabre rattling and way too ambitious. It’s worth noting but not worrying about.

Is President Mohamed Farmaajo Aware?

Clannish political solutions are unneeded and unsustainable both on the short and long term. Though recently we’ve observed and witnessed too much whimsical moves approved at FGS top brass, the President may have dim view of these actions. There are too grave, so much of a risk. We cannot however rule out Presidential complicity at this time, but for now, the main suspects are primarily the Presidents men and trustees at Prime Minister Hassan Khaire’s political office. In most cases, and to the best of our knowledge, such gravely aggressive steps are orchestrated through agent saboteurs and non-official channels.  

Myopic disastrous whimsical actions, that’s what this sabre rattling by the Marehan chiefs and few tribesmen resembles. Under Farmaajo and Khaire, Somalia, will continue to pursue ethnic hegemony with the use of clan-militia power to control and shape development inside other ethnic societies.

Farmaajo and Khaire and the half-wits at NISA and SNA seem oblivious that the ancient practice of encouraging one ethnic group to dominate others as a means of securing imperial power only breeds new and worse conflicts. And here, the already tensile clan mistrust will be exacerbated by such carelessness. That these fights for power and influence will overlap with the competition for water, pasture, food, and national resources and the wealth they create. And beyond, the fragile Somalia will be further exposed to subversion and constant conflict.