Somalia’s diplomatic drift away from its neighbor and strongest ally Kenya, continues unfettered. The rift is largely factored by a maritime row and political interference by Britain and Norway both whom have vast oil and gas interests in the contested coastal triangle, and to a certain extent, federal government’s politics and the upcoming elections. Because Somalia has so far weathered the drifts short-term ramifications without ceding to the demands of neighboring Kenya and other players, the standoff will probably continue indefinitely. However, the outlook is bad. The ramifications of an escalation will be far reaching and that will be counterproductive to the regional economic blocs including EAC, COMESA, and IGAD.
Mogadishu’s adamancy can be viewed largely as a unilateral decisions that is most certainly counterproductive, because as the tiff drags on, Kenya, the largest economy and military power in the region will pursue relationships with other regional, world powers, and worse, the same countries Somalia is counting on currently and achieve its strategic geopolitical objectives. This is an obvious eventuality. Kenya, which is now middle income country is a vital security and economic partner to both the West and East and Central Africa. Its geostrategic value is very critical to both and the emergence of competing influences is compelling it to re-assert its influence in the region in a manner that will alienate Mogadishu, largely because Mogadishu has employed bellicose diplomacy on the matter.
What Happens then?
Bellicose diplomacy always ricochets if military and economic muscle is feeble. Mogadishu views the outcome of recent events largely as a win against Nairobi and an outlook of possible eventualities. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The limelight after upstaging Nairobi doesn’t compel players, particularly both Nairobi and its strategic partners to de-escalate, rather gives them reasons to redouble support to anti-Mogadishu voices including international partners, governments, Federal Governments, and worse, the Somali Community, very adverse outcomes that only weakens Mogadishu promising future.
Somalia is closer to achieving peace and stability more than any other time. This may be affected if a maritime border dispute escalates to a full scale conflict. Despite many European and Western countries pledging support to Mogadishu and opening diplomatic stations, the determinants of socio-political stability are immediate neighbors specifically Kenya and Ethiopia. It will not be a surprise both countries will embark on a mission to change the Somali Governments currently outlandish behavior.
And if the results of such a mission doesn’t suffice, aggressive postures are likely including providing support to moderate political players whose sphere of influence is significant, outfits that Mogadishu consider potent revolutionary threats to its continuity. Worse, the threat of the Al-Qaeda branch there, Harakat Shabaab Mujahiden is omnipresent. Mogadishu has everything to lose and instead of attempting to upstage Nairobi through bellicose diplomacy should pursue closer ties with Nairobi and Ethiopia enabling these regional powers to gain their geostrategic advantages while Somalia quietly recovers and stabilizes gradually.
