The tribal card in Kenya is at play with every political wheel dealer going to the rift to shop for political support in readiness to an impending referendum storm.
The referendum push by the CORD coalition besides the governors push for additional funding has put the East African nation back on both international limelight besides the dreaded political mood.
The simple reason why this has come to be is merely lack of providence, poor intelligence, and incredible speed by the opposition to outsmart the government.
ANALYSIS
The referendum seemed a far fetched idea until it became surreal and over a million signatures were captured in what seems to be mere politik in Kenya.
According to Director of Intelligence at Strategic Intelligence David James, failure to listen, relying on fanatics for decision making, and complete failure by intelligence services to conduct political predictive analysis has contributed significantly in driving the country to a political season just an year after a very emotional election period.
Predictive analysis besides intelligence analysis is that capacity to procure biases from coarse body of information or raw intelligence. The bias is the product with which you preempt the threat posed.
Politically, it was obvious Odinga and company besides the West were not happy to lose the election as such it was expected they had to orchestrate events that would shape the political weather and environment to a state that would make socioeconomic s remain overshadowed by politik.
The Kalenjin are determinants
The Rift Valley is the decider of the referendum. Governor Isaac Ruto who is also the chairman of the council of governors has caused divisions in the ruling coalition. He has also made sense out of the Pesa-Mashinani devolution call.
He has split the loyalty of the Kalenjins and the larger Rift-Valley family into factions. The unity of purpose has been lost and the current discord makes this community the decider of who wins the political chess game.
This long protracted battle is meant to drag throughout the next 3 years into the 2017 elections.
The Kalenjins are being divided and at the same time being used to shape the future of both the referendum outcome and the general election.
CORD wants to have the Kalenjins rally behind them while URP which is a partner in Jubilee wants to keep the entire Rift-Valley community as family.
The tribal card may be burned by simply passing a legislation that gives governors more money to spend. This makes Governor Ruto’s push for a referendum irrelevant, infact he will be equally irrelevant.
This will bring back unity of purpose and save the country from the catastrophe it faces if it slips back to politics.
