Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 1st – March 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliated jihadist militant group active in Somalia and throughout the broader Horn of Africa, is experiencing a resurgence. The militant persistently continues to wage attacks on civilians, Somalian troops, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops and their operating bases besides other critical infrastructures and property.

In the month of March 2022, the militant activities remained steady with an average at least one or two attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially in the war-torn Somalia. In the month under review, the Islamist militant group recorded at least 62 attacks. The month of February recorded at least 65 operations and 58 operations for the month of January. Most of these attacks have been recorded for theaters in Somalia, with a few incidents being recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab.

The first week of March recorded, 15 attacks, second week recorded 13 attacks, third week recorded at least 14 attacks and fourth week recorded at least 20 terror operations. The militant has scaled up attacks, ranging from small scale to large scale attacks. Notably, in the last week of March, Al-Shabaab conducted two major suicide attacks in Beledweyne town killing about 48 people and wounding scores. Another Ististhadi raid took place on heavily fortified Halane military complex in Mogadishu which is houses offices for the U.N., Western embassies and the African Union peacekeeping mission.          

Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia, besides in the capital Mogadishu. The Islamist group has perfected the use of IEDs (Landmines and roadside bombs), armed and ambush assaults are also becoming too common; being witnessed along roads citing their poor condition. Resumption of suicide attacks and targeted assassinations are also common on urban areas of Somalia and especially on military targets.

Challenge of poor roads and vegetation, has seen Al-Shabaab are exploit these factors to plant roadside bombs/landmines besides conducting frequent ambush/surprise attacks on military convoys in Somalia. Security analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of more such brazen attacks, noting that they are a fresh demonstration of Al-Shabab’s goal of destabilizing the weak government in Mogadishu.

AS Claimed Activity in March, 2022

Week 1: March 1^st – March 7^th

• On March 1^st, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces attacked the base of the army of Burane in the area of Middle Shabelle. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• March 1^st, Al-Shabaab raided a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Hudur, Bakool region, southern Somalia.
• On March 2^nd, Al-Shabaab raided Milho village, Las Khorey district, Sanaag region, Puntland state, northern Somalia. Al Shabaab claimed to have captured the village, but Puntland officials said security forces repelled the attack.
• On March 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush and armed assault on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in the general vicinity of Yoontooy area, on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba. Al-Shabaab claimed they killed 12 soldiers and injured at least 17 soldiers.
• On March 3^rd, Al-Shabaab raided the residency of the Awdiinle district commissioner in Awdiinle, Baidoa district, Bay region, southern Somalia. The terror operatives failed to assassinate the official but wounded four bodyguards.
• On Mach 3^rd, Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated a Somali National Army (SNA) soldier in general vicinity of Yaqshid district, Mogadishu, Somalia
• On March 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for ambush raid on the base operated by Somali government troops in Bariire district on the outskirts of Afgooye district, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On March 4^th, Ahmed Hassan Biriq a two-star police officer was killed by the Shabaab Mujahideen forces in a planned/targeted operation that took place in Beledweyne city, the headquarter of Hiran region, Somalia. Two other officers wounded.
• On March 5^th, mortar shells reported to have been fired at an Ethiopian military base in Dinsor district, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. No casualties were reported though army tents were reportedly destroyed.
• On March 5^th, a senior Somali police officer was shot dead by Al-Shabaab assassins and two others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On March 6^th, Ugandan military base in Barawe, Lower Shabelle attacked by the Islamist Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab militants attacked an AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in Barawe with artillery fire, no casualties were reported.
• On March 6^th, Al-Shabaab killed a Hirshabelle security guard near the Hirshabelle Presidential Palace in Jowhar, Middle Shebelle region, central Somalia.
• On March 7^th, an explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab targeted at a checkpoint manned by SNA troops in Buurhakabo district of Bay region Somalia, one soldier died in the explosion while two other soldiers were injured.
• On March 7^th, at least three Somali civilians killed and several others wounded after a gun battle erupted between SNA and Al-Shabaab militants in general vicinity of the capital Mogadishu.
• On March 7^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on Kenyan patrol unit in general vicinity on Konton, Khorof-Harar, Wajir NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.

Week 2: March 7^th – March 14^th

• On March 8^th, an official of South West administration assassinated by Al-Shabaab operatives in general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination via Radio Andalus.
• On March 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on SNA troop’s base in general vicinity of Yaqshid district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On March 9^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM base operated by Kenyan troops successfully thwarted in Hosingow, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On March 9^th, two explosions attack at the Bakara market reported. At least 4 SNA soldiers injured including a commander as per local sources. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On March 9^th, SNA soldier identified as Mohamed Ibrahim Qooley, killed by the Al-Shabaab operatives in the area of Ceelasha Biyaha in the outskirts of Mogadishu.
• On March 9^th, suspected Al-Shabaab suicide bomber struck in front of a busy restaurant in Bossaso’s Al Macruuf shopping center killing at least four and wounding seven others.
• On March 10^th, Al-Shabaab reported to have taken over Matabaan of Hiran central Somalia and put checkpoints outside the city after heavy battle with SNA troops.
• On March 11^th, at least four civilians killed, two injured (+1 Chinese citizen) after Al-Shabaab terrorists staged a terror attack at Bodhei in Lamu, Coastal Kenya.
• On March 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed victory against Somali government troops outside Mogadishu. At least ten SNA soldiers killed in Al-Shabaab grenade attack in the general vicinity of Mubarak, Bakool region of Somalia.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed Turkish-trained ‘Gorgor’ troops who were returning to their FOB in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. four killed and two others injured as per local sources.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Jubaland security forces north of Kismayo porty city, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported from the attack.
• O March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed armed assault on SNA troops in the general vicinity of Daynile. One soldier killed.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on SNA checkpoints in the neighborhood of Hodan district of Mogadishu and the Tabellaha Sheikh Ibrahim area on the outskirts of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.

Week 3: March 14^th – March 21^st

• On March 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED that targeted a Burundian AMISOM convoy in Buurane, Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed two soldiers.
• On March 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated an IED targeting a Puntland State forces patrol in Bossaso, Bari region, northern Somalia. The militant claimed the IED killed at least seven soldiers.
• On March 15^th, Daynile Secondary School Manager killed in suspected Al-Shabaab roadside bomb in Mogadishu. According to local sources, Daahir Hassan Tohow better known as Daahir Digdigle died after a roadside bomb IED planted on the road in Daynile district exploded.
• On March 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for ambush assault on Jubbaland State forces in Kismayo, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. The militant group claimed its fighters killed eight soldiers.
• On March 16^th, a number of Kenyan soldiers killed by a roadside explosive in Gherille in Gedo, southern Somalia. Five other soldiers were also reportedly seriously injured in the incident that took place Kenya-Somalia border.
• On March 17^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting SNA soldiers in Mareerey, Afgooye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The militant group claimed the IED killed one SNA soldier and wounded two others.
• On March 17^th, Al-Shabaab claims to have targeted foreigners in Mogadishu’s Hodan district. corresponding local sources indicated that a vehicle believed to be carrying Turkish nationals ran over an IED. Four people wounded in the attack.
• On March 18^th, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have carried out a planned operation in the Black-sea neighborhood of Hodan district in Mogadishu, killing one SNA soldier and seizing his rifle.
• On March 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed assassination of a central prison officer identified as Osman Dheere in Towfiiq neighborhood of Mogadishu.
• On March 19^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an IED targeting a Burundian-AMISOM convoy in Bal’ad, Middle Shabelle region, central Somalia. The militant media reported that Al-Shabaab that their IED killed six soldiers and wounded three others.
• On March 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attempted probe on Kenyan troops in Rhamu, Mandera County, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On March 19^th, Al-Shabaab a direct armed assault against AMISOM troops in general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No casualties reported from the operation.
• On March 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched a major armed assault against an SNA operated base in Wajid, Bakool region of Somalia resulting to casualties.
• On March 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched a direct gun attack against an AMISOM base in Hosingow, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported from the brief attempted probe.   

Week 4: March 21^st – March 31^st

• On March 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a Somali government soldier in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle, a town not far from Mogadishu.
• On March 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several rounds of mortar shells on AMISOM base, operated by Ethiopian troops in Dinsor, Bay region of Somalia. At least three soldiers killed and four others wounded as per local sources.
• On March 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack targeting the newly-appointed federal governor of Garasbaaley district at his residence in the outskirts of Mogadishu. The gun battle left at least one of his guards killed and two others wounded.
• On March 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried out a special operation in the village of Jamhuuriya in the district of Karan and killed a government soldier named Muse Talayaani.
• On March 22^nd, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting an Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Dinsor, Bay region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed three soldiers and wounded four others.
• On March 22^nd, Al-Shabaab responsibility for attack on Djibouti army troops in Dhuusamareeb city of Galguduud region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On March 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for assassination of a Somali government soldier who had left Baidoa town heading to Daynuunay district which is outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia.
• On March 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched a major armed assault on Ethiopian troops in general vicinity of Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On March 22^nd, Al-Shabaab captured a military base in Teedan, Beledweyne district, Hiraan region, central Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On March 23^rd, Al-Shabaab ambushed Jubbaland State Security Forces convoy near Singaleer, Kismayo district, Lower Jubba region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed they killed one soldier.
• On March 23^rd, Al-Shabaab in an armed assault raided an AMISOM operated base in Kuday, Badhadhe district, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed they killed two soldiers.
• On March 23^rd, Al-Shabaab armed assault into Halane camp in Mogadishu reported. Al-Shabab claimed its militants gained entry into the Halane compound which is home to a number of diplomatic missions including those of the US, UK, UN and other western embassies. At least six killed in the attack (1 AMISOM sentry and 5-Foreigners).
• On March 23^rd, Massive explosions reported at a polling station in Lama Galaay Camp, Beledweyne town of Somalia’s Hiran region. More than 48 people including politicians and leaders reported to have been killed as per local sources.
• On March 26^th, Foreign Soldiers killed and others injured in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces engaged in AMISOM troops in heavy fighting in Maslah camp on the outskirts of the livestock market in Hilwaa district of Mogadishu. Four killed and seven wounded as per local sources.
• On March 27^th, Al-Shabaab militants overran the Af Urur military base in Bosaso region, north of the Somalia on Sunday, killing four soldiers of Puntland Security Forces (PSF). Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying its fighters fired several rounds of mortar shells into the PSF military base.
• On March 28^th, Al-Shabaab attacked the Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia. Unknown casualties reported.
• On March 29^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting the Wanlaweyn district deputy commissioner in Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab failed to assassinate the official. The IED killed one other person.                       
• On March 30^th, Al-Shabaab raided a South West State security forces base in Hudur, Bakool region, Sothern Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On March 30^th, Al-Shabaab raided Wisil village, Hobyo district, Mudug region, southern Somalia. The militants destroyed properties including burning of several houses in the village.
• On March 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed control over Bulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia, firing 30 Shells at military base to which Somali Troops allegedly fled.

Assessment/ Insights & Recommendations

• The Islamist militant threat remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.
• Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned/forecasted of increased especially during Ramadhan. Suicide attacks expected to increase in urban areas where there are large crowds, military operating bases will also be targeted in the so-called martyrdom operations.
• Notably, threat levels continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia.
• Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and also in other urban areas. Suicide operations also remains lethal in towns with crowds/busy joints such as coffee shops and markets.
• Counterterrorism (CT) operators in East Africa region and broadly those operating under AMISOM mandate must remain on high alert during Ramadan period, to upscale surveillance on their respective areas of responsibility (AoR)/sectors especially in Somalia and also in Kenya (Mombasa, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera).
• Also, An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended.
• Collaboration between citizenry of individual countries encouraged in an effort to share any actionable intelligence that may aid counterterrorism operators intercept and thwart terrorist activities in Somalia and Kenya.   

It is also the primary responsibility of any country to provide basic security to its citizenry. The government should take additional security measures. Measures include additional installation of surveillance cameras, scanners, security barriers, and enhancing visible policing. Despite persistent and relentless target by the Islamist Al-Shabaab, Kenya counterterrorism agencies/operators lauded for their robust CT approach especially along the porous border with Somalia significantly stemming down their activity significantly.

Strategic Intelligence will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.