Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of July 1st – July 31st, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab is a dangerous enemy that presents a threat to Somalia and its neighbors, especially Kenya. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in East Africa targeting both hard and soft targets.

In the past 30 days, the Islamists militant group has claimed at least 43 attacks. Al-Shabaab scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. Lull reported in Kenya’s frontier counties. No major incident was reported for Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab.

Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review. Al-Shabaab claimed at least 43 attacks all in Somalia, this is a slight increase as compared to June where 37 were recorded. A gradual surge in Al-Shabaab operations noted citing in May, 28 attacks were recorded.

Counterterrorism operators in Kenya should not relent and misconstrue that the terrorist threat has diminished but should remain vigilant in their various areas of responsibility. Al-Shabaab might be hatching plans to wage attacks targeting military, police defense posts and also patrol units in frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) citing the militant’s previous attacks trends.

While an uphill task, ending the group’s ability to successfully carry out attacks would deal a blow to Al-Shabaab’s capabilities.  However, counterterrorism operators need to always rethink strategies, changing on their daily routines and combat strategies as often as possible. Counterterrorism forces in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.

AS Claimed Attacks (July 1^st – July 31^st)

Week 1:

• On July 1^st, reports from the outskirts of Kismayo indicate that a heavy attack was carried out on a base of the Jubbaland administration in Bar Sanguni area by Al-Shabaab fighters. No details on casualties were reported.
• On July 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide bomb attack that targeted a popular coffee shop near Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency headquarters (NISA) in Mogadishu. The militant group through its propaganda media Al-Kataib reported to have killed 15 people including spy agents, police and military personnel.
• On July 2^nd, Al-Shabab militant claimed killing four AMISOM soldiers in an attack in the southern Somali town of Dhobley, Lower Juba region of Somalia. The militants hastily claimed responsibility for the attack through the group’s affiliated propaganda media channels.
• On July 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed a brief raid that targeted on AMISOM-Burundian troops in general area of Miirtaqwo, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were reported.
• On July 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed eight government soldiers in the outskirts of Dhuusamareb, the administrative capital of the Galguduud region of Somalia. Somali army troops also claimed to have repulsed the ambush raid and killing a number of Islamist militants.
• On July 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed a convoy of Somali army troops between Luuq and Dolow, Gedo region and killed at least two SNA soldiers, wounded three others besides destroying their vehicle.
• On July 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple raids against SNA and foreign troops in southern Somalia. The militants claimed to have carried series of heavy raids on military bases in Qoryooley district and the areas of Number 60, Danow and Barire all in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On July 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM-Ethiopian troops’ base in general area of Bardhere, Gedo region of Somalia.
• On July 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed similar raids on ENDF troops in Burhakabo, Bay region as well as well as in Dinsor of the same region but no casualties were reported as a result of these attacks.
• On July 6^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM troops near Abdalla Birole, on the outskirts of the coastal town of Kismayo repulsed. No casualties were reported.
• On July 7^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly retook the strategic towns of Ba’adweyne and Wisil in Mudug region less than 24 hours after being captured by Somalia govt forces. SNA retreat following deadly clash with Al-Shabaab militants.
• On July 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed via its media that its assassins assassinated a government official identified as Abdullahi Mohamed Amin, one of the district commissioners in Afgoye district.
• On July 8^th, separately Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for launching major operations that targeted Somali government forces and AMISOM troops’ bases in Bula Marer district in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties.

Week 2:

• On July 9^th, two civilians travelling on a vehicle were killed in a roadside explosion in Qeycad area, Mudug region. The roadside IEDs believed to have been planted by Al-Shabaab militants targeting security forces’ convoys or patrols teams.
• On July 9^th, Al-Shabaab targets AMISOM-Ugandan troops in the general vicinity of Danow, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted the foreign troops with a roadside/landmine on a major road joining Afgoye and Wallanweyn districts of Lower Shabelle.
• On July 10^th, Car bomb blast targets a convoy carrying Mogadishu police commander Colonel Farhan Qarole near Banadir junction. The commander reportedly survived the attack, four of his bodyguards were killed and five others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On July 11^th, bombardment of mortar bombs struck bases housing Somalia’s army and AMISOM-Djiboutian peacekeepers in the town of Bulo-barde in Hiran region. No details on casualties were reported.
• On July 12^th, a roadside bomb explosion targeted an AMISOM military convoy carrying Ugandan troops on a road between Bula Mareer and Golweyn in Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia, killing one soldier, and wounding a Somali translator as per local sources.
• On July 14^th, Al-Shabaab claim attack on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF). The militants claimed to have ambushed JSF at Kudha, near Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia. The militants claimed to have killed eight and injured ten other soldiers who were on security patrol convoy.
• On July 14^th, Al-Shabaab fighters seized control of Dheg-hayo village near the coastal town of Hobyo in Somalia’s Mudug region after brief clash with Somali federal and regional troops.
• On July 15^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attack AMISOM operated military base in Hosingow town in Lower Juba region. No casualties were reported.
• On July 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have bombed an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Halgan town in Hiiraan region. No details on casualties were reported in the brief attack.
• On July 16^th, Car bomb blast targeted Somalia government troops and regional forces in the outskirt of Ba’adweyne town in Mudug region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it killed 7 soldiers, wounded 8 others and destroyed 4 vehicles. Government officials also claimed that they foiled the attack.
• On July 18^th, Al-Shabaab clash with SNA in Ba’adweyne, Mudug region. Al-Shabaab media released photos of its fighters inside Ba’adweyn town west of the coastal town of Hobyo in Somalia’s Mudug region. This is the third time Al-Shabaab took control of the strategic town in recent months.

Week 3:

• On July 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination attempts of government officials in the capital Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab assassin attempted to assassinate Mohamed Abdirahman Yusuf, a district commissioner in Huriwa district of Mogadishu.
• On July 18^th, Heavy clashes between Al-Shabaab fighters and Somalia govt troops erupts in the outskirt of Xinlabe village in Somalia’s Galmudug region. Reports say militants ambushed govt forces led by former Mogadishu police chief, Sadaq John.
• On July 18^th, another attack in the Siin Dheer area west of Mogadishu killed a government soldier. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killings through its Islamic Radio Andalus.
• On July 19^th, Al-Shabaab and Somalia government troops clashed near Ba’adweyne town in Galmudug region. The militants via Al-Kataib media claimed to have killed 14 soldiers including a military commander identified as Col. Dahir Jareer.
• On July 21^st, Loud explosions, believed to be mortar shells, reported inside Mogadishu’s heavily fortified Halane military camp. Halane Camp is home to AMISOM and several foreign missions including US, EU and the UN. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility, saying they fired 6 mortar shells at the camp. No details on casualties were reported.
• On July 23^rd, Heavy fighting erupts again in Qeycad area of ​​Mudug region between Al-Shabaab and government troops. No details on casualties were reported.
• On July 24^th, Al-Shabaab clash with SNA backed by AMISOM troops in the capital Mogadishu. At least four people reportedly killed and others wounded in the heavy gun fight.
• On July 24^th, AMISOM troops repulse a would-be raid on its supplies convoy between Ras Kamboni and Kulbiyow in Lower Juba region of Somalia. Slight injuries on AMISOM troops reported in the brief ambush raid.

Week 4:

• On July 25^th, Galmudug and Federal Government forces have suffered heavy casualties in a fresh attack in Mudug region. Senior government officials survived assassination attempts claimed by Al-Shabaab militants. Al-Shabaab fired several rounds of mortar shell hit at the 21st camp on the outskirts of Ba’adweyne, threatening the lives of senior officials.
• On July 26^th, IED hits Somali troops, followed by heavy fighting between SNA and Al-Shabaab in Oomad village near Mataban district in central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 9 soldiers, destroyed military vehicles and confiscated 5 Machine guns.
• On July 27^th, Heavy clashes erupts again in Ba’adweyne, Mudug region of Somalia. The strategic town has been the epicenter of clashes between Al-Shabaab and Somalia government troops. The militants claimed to have used heavy artillery on a military base operated by SNA and Galmudug Forces in the outskirt of Ba’adweyne killing at least eight soldiers.
• On July 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops in Bakool region of Somalia. At around midnight Al-Shabaab jihadist militants in several directions attacked the main base of the Ethiopian troops based in the town of Wajid. No casualties were reported.
• On July 28^th, A Somali government official was killed in the outskirts of one district of Benadir region. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On July 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortar shells on an AMISOM operated military base in Qoryooley, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have wounded a number of Ugandan troops.
• On July 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed heavy artillery shelling and gunfire Somali government troops in the general area of Bula Burde, Hiran region. Al-Shabaab media reported that five soldiers were killed and several others wounded.
• On July 30^th, Al-Shabaab fighters engaged Somali government troops in fierce clashes outside the town of Deynuunay, in the southwestern Bay region of Somalia. SNA troops fled leaving the militants in control of the town for some minutes.
• On July 30^th, 4 football players killed and six others wounded in IED blast in Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
• On July 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed a deadly attack on South West Administration forces, Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that the troops were attacked in the general area of Bardale as the troops were on their way from Baidoa. At least four soldiers reportedly wounded in the ambush raid.
• On July 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed IED attack that targeted a lawmaker in the vicinity of Yaqshid district of Mogadishu. The lawmaker survived, but was critically wounded.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Despite concerted counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, the group remains resilient and persistent in waging attacks. Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss in the battlefield.

The group has morphed militarily. Its adept skills in use social media as the means of communication to propagate propaganda, disseminate information and recruit followers. Al-Shabaab relies on misinformation and lies, and the group continues to put out false information while making their claims to appeal to its followers and wannabe as jihadist of choice in the region.

Al-Shabaab continue to routinely attack Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys as well as their military bases.

Military bases and convoys in Mudug region of Somalia have suffered a number of repeat attacks in the past four weeks. Intelligence assets have continually warned of increased militant activities in Mudug region of Somalia citing the group having established its operations bases in the region. In recent weeks, strategic Ba’adweyn town which is located in Mudug region has been an epicenter of the clashes between the Somali government troops and the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab militants.

Al-Shabaab’s biggest threat to peace in Somalia is their frequent use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), especially vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs), ambush raids and targeted suicide operations. Al-Shabaab’s attacks in recent years increasingly rely on IEDs and VBIEDs, making them the weapon of choice and a modus operandi for the Al-Qaeda aligned terrorist group.

Targeted attacks, assassinations and executions have also increased in Somalia. Government officials and alleged spies are key targets of the Al-Qaeda aligned militants. Al-Shabaab threat heavily skewed towards security and defense outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. However, civilians plying public service vehicles, foreigners, including aid workers, construction workers and journalists are very likely to be targeted by jihadist militants in both countries.

This, it’s important to undertake countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts that addresses the employment of counter-radicalization, counter-messaging, and countering violent extremism (CVE) campaigns is an important step in curbing increasing operations of ambushes and suicide bombing. Any attempted intervention that does not address the reasons that young men and women may join Al-Shabaab or any other violent extremist group will remain incomplete.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab is full of accomplished fighters, and to ensure the group does not begin to regain traction, the coalition partner forces need to mount a disciplined and coherent counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign in support of the weak Federal Government of Somalia now this country is facing the challenge of COVID-19 surge.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.