Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st May – 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM) is a dangerous enemy that presents a threat to Somalia and its neighbors, especially Kenya. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in East Africa targeting both hard and soft targets.

In the past 31 days of May, the Islamists militant group has claimed nearly 50 attacks. This is a slight decline in militant operations compared to the month of April where the militant group claimed more than 60 operations. Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently waged attacks in theaters in central and southern Somalia.

The Al-Qaeda associated force Al-Shabaab claimed nearly two dozen attacks, with most operations being recorded for Somalia, the militant’s homebase in the first two weeks of the month under review. Ranging from small to large-scale operations, Al-Shabaab preferred attack type remains the use of IEDs. However, ambushed raids strengthened with direct gun attacks are very common especially targeting military convoys.

 In the month under review, the militant group also recorded one notable attack against ATMIS-Burundian troops in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle. At least 30 soldiers were confirmed to have killed in the terror operation. However, Al-Shabaab this its media channels claimed responsibility for that attack exaggerating to have overrun the camp and killing at least 173 soldiers and taking more as prisoners of war (PoWs). The El Baraf attack dominated the Al-Shabaab media networks, including thousands of social media posts and reposts across every militant group’s major platform.

Lull reported in Kenya’s frontier counties. No major incident was reported for Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab. Despite lull being witnessed in NEP Kenya and Lamu prefectures, counterterrorism operators in Kenya should not relent and misconstrue that the terrorist threat has diminished but should remain vigilant in their various areas of responsibility. Al-Shabaab might be hatching plans to wage attacks targeting military, police defense posts and also patrol units in frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) citing the militant’s previous attacks trends.

While an uphill task, ending the group’s ability to successfully carry out attacks would deal a blow to Al-Shabaab’s capabilities.  However, counterterrorism operators need to always rethink strategies, changing on their daily routines and combat strategies as often as possible. Counterterrorism forces in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks: 1^st May – May 16^th

• On May 3^rd, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab in deafening car bombs attacked and overrun an        ATMIS camp operated by Burundian troops in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Reports indicated that the militants about 30 soldiers and captured many others.  Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 173 soldiers in their propaganda campaign. This is one of the biggest attacks the group have carried out in recent months.
• On May 4^th, Residents in Gedo region witnessed a new patch of Ethiopian soldiers heading to Somalia, reports further indicate that the convoy came under heavy attack carried out by Al-Shabaab on the road between Luuq and Dolow towns, Gedo reion of Somalia. Explosions and gunfire were heard in the area as per local sources. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 5^th, Al-Shabaab Massive roadside bomb blasts followed by fierce gunfire targets ATMIS-Ethiopian military convoy near Shatalow village in Gedo region. One military vehicle reportedly destroyed and casualties reported.
• On May 7^th, Al-Shabaab says its fighters hit mortar shells on Mirtaaqwa of Middle Shabelle region which hosts Burundian forces. No immediate casualties were reported but this is the second time the group targeted the same military base of the ATMIS in a week.
• On May 7^th, ATMIS-Ethiopian convoy traveling between Baidoa and Buurhakaba, Bay region was hit by an explosion. The blast killed at least two Ethiopian soldiers and wounded another. ENDF troops from Burhakaba district also came under ambushes.
• On May 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a deadly ambush raid on ATMIS-Ethiopian troops in the general vicinity of El Barde and Wajid towns in Bakool region. At least two killed and four others wounded.
• On May 8^th, Fighting was reported between Al-Shabaab and SNA Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for a series of grenade attacks on government soldiers on the Barire bridge on the outskirts of Afgoye district, killing three soldiers and wounding one other.
• On May 9^th, an explosion targeting Banadir region police chief Farhan Qarole outside Mogadishu reported. At least one civilian killed and three people wounded.
• On May 10^th, Explosion heard near the residence of opposition leader and presidential candidate, Abdirahman Abdishakur in the capital Mogadishu. At least 2 people reportedly injured.
• On May 11^th, Massive roadside bomb blast hits ATMIS-Ethiopian military vehicle traveling between Hudur and El Barde towns in Somalia’s Bakool region. At least 8 ENDF soldiers reportedly killed, others injured. One military truck destroyed as per local sources.
• On May 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for suicide attack in Somalia capital, saying they have targeted a Somali government convoy heading to the venue for the Presidential election at Afisyoni Airbase in Mogadishu airport. The explosion occurred around Afrika hotel near KM4 junction killed four people and wounded seven others.
• On May 12^th, Reports from the Middle Shabelle region say Al-Shabaab militants fired several mortars at Biyo-Cado village, south of El-Baraf. No FOBs were shelled. Preliminary reports indicate that civilians from the same family were killed and two others critically wounded from the incident.
• On May 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several rounds of mortar shells on a Puntland Security Forces base in Af-urur area of ​​Bossaso, the capital of Bari region. At least eight wounded in the shelling four of them in critical condition.
• On May 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided Maslah SNA camp in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 14^th, Men armed with pistols believed to be Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead, man identified as Abdirashid Gedi, in Somalia’s Beledweyne town, Hiran region of Somalia. Abdirashid was said to be part of this year’s electoral delegates from Hirshabelle region. Assassins escaped from the scene as per local sources.
• On May 15^th, Several Mortar rounds hit in an area near Afisyoni tent where Somalia presidential election was taking place in Mogadishu’s Halane camp. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 15^th, Mortar rounds strike the residence of Presidential candidate Abdirahman Abdishakur in the capital Mogadishu. Photo circulating on local sources depicts a vehicle perforated by shrapnels of the mortar inside his house. Abdishakur is taking part in the race for Villa Somalia.
• On May 15^th, three mortar shells reportedly landed outside Decale Hotel in Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle International Airport near the vicinity of the venue where presidential election is taking place. Number of casualties unknown.

May 16^th – May 31^st

• On May 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortar shelling on a Puntland State forces base in Galgala, Bossaso district, Bari region, northern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack wounded eight soldiers, though local sources/media initially reported one injured soldier.
• On May 18^th. Al-Shabaab claimed an IED explosion between the Milk Factory and the Military Hospital in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed that it targeted an SNP convoy was passing by. Unknown casualties reported.
• On May 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided SNA operated base at Hariryale intersection in Wardhiigley district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a brief attack on Somali government troops in the general vicinity of Kadha district of Mogadishu. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On May 19^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claim to have killed 5 ATMIS-Ethiopian soldiers, injured 4 others and destroyed a military vehicle following a roadside bomb attack against ENDF convoy at Marey village near El Barde town in Somalia’s Bakool region.
• On May 19^th, Al-Shabaab Islamists shot and killed today a SNP police officer in general vicinity of Dharkenley district, Mogadishu. The attackers managed to escape from the scene before reinforcements were sent to the area.
• On May 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing a government officer named Osman in general vicinity of Boondheere district of Mogadishu
• On May 20^th, In the Lower Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have launched a major offensive against the ATMIS forces in Golweyn area of ​​Bulo Marer district. Two soldier reportedly injured in a direct gun assault.
• On May 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have probed an ATMIS base operated by Kenyan troops Kulbiyow, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported from this attempted raid.
• On May 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on ATMIS-Ugandan troops at the vicinity of Buur Olow under Barawe district of Lower Shabelle.
• On May 20^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device in an attempt to assassinate Somali politician Abdullahi Sheikh Hassan in Wadajir district, Mogadishu. Hassan survived the explosion and his injuries treated at a local hospital. Al-Shabaab militants targeted Hassan as he was leaving a mosque after Friday prayers.
• On May 21^st, Al-Shabaab disguised as civilians raided a Somali National Army (SNA) checkpoint in Bal’ad, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed at least seven soldiers.
• On May 21^st, Al Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting SNA soldiers in Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The IED killed at least two soldiers as per local sources.
• On May 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attempted to probe an ATMIS base operated by the Kenyan troops in Hosingow and Taabto areas of Lower Juba region of southern Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On May 22^nd, Sakariye Said Salad, a local Puntland administration official was shot dead by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen in Galkayo’s Garsoor neighborhood. Assassins escaped from the scene.
• On May 25^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed two soldiers.
• On May 25^th, A Somali government soldier identified as Ahmed Yare was shot and killed by assassins in Mogadishu’s Karan district. Attackers seized his handgun and escaped from the scene. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination.
• On May 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush assault on SNA troops in general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The militant group claimed to have killed four government soldiers and injured several others.
• On May 27^th, In the capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab assassins killed a Somali police officer named Abdi Shakur in a planned operation in the Suuqa Hoolaha neighborhood of Hilwaa district.
• On May 27^th, In Hiran region, Al-Shabaab in an operation east of Beledweyne killed Ali Moalim Mohamud, one of the elders who was involved in selection of election delegates.
• On May 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED attack that targeted a security checkpoint in the vicinity of Ambareeso area of Lower Shabelle. At least  five SNA troops killed and seven others reportedly wounded from this incident.
• On May 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a brief probe on SNA operated base in the vicinity of Garbaharey district of Gedo region. Casualties reported.
• On May 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed IED attack that targeted a military vehicle left at least 5 SNA soldiers killed in the general vicinity of Sinka-dheer in Hodina district, a few miles outside the capital Mogadishu.
• On May 29^th, Al-Shabaab forces claimed to have conducted a direct attack on Maslah camp on the outskirts of Suuqa Hoolaha neighborhood in Hilwaa district in Mogadishu. Casualties reported from both sides.
• On May 30^th, at least three people were killed, four others injured in an IED explosion in Afgoye town, approximately 30km west of the capital Mogadishu. A former district official Hussein Jibril who appears to have been the target is among the injured.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

In the month under review, threat levels continued to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded.

The threat of IEDs remains high across the theatre of operations, and therefore troops are advised to adopt necessary Counter-IED measures. However, ambush raids strengthened by direct gun assault also notably on sharp trajectory targeting military bases and convoys. Suicide missions on FOBs have also proved to be lethal and thus scouting on FOB perimeters in various AoRs encouraged in all sectors in Somalia.

Al-Shabaab persistently continued to wage attacks in theaters of central and southern Somalia where the group maintains significant control on urban and rural territories. From low-scale to large-scale attacks on FOBs, assassination operations on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its neighborhood by Al-Shabaab’s Muhammad bin Maslamah unit. Also, a prominent journalist reportedly interviewed Al-Shabaab and it top leadership in the group’s stronghold of Middle Juba. Notably, the journalist posed with likely/possibly a newly formed Shabaab Special Forces’ unit, dorning in military regalia and glasses (goggles).

For Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, no major operations/incidents by the Islamist militants have been reported. However, a number of probes have been recorded on Kenyan operated bases in Lower Juba region of Somalia. The militant group has in a number of times attempted to probe ATMIS-Kenya FOBs in Hosingow, Taabto and Kolbiyow with little success.

On Kenyan soil, the Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab has not been successful courtesy on robust counterterrorism operations in NEP regions as well as the coastal prefectures. However, CT assets urged to remain on high alert as militant group intent to strike on Kenyan soil and its security defense posts remains all time threat and intent. The militant group is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions besides targeting on critical infrastructures and construction companies engaging on road constructions especially in Lamu are also notable target by Al-Shabaab.

Conclusion & Recommendations

Despite many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure, Somali government troops supported by allied ATMIS and other partners, the Horn of Africa nation is not degraded. The Al-Qaeda’s affiliated Al-Shabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of central and southern Somalia, and has demonstrated an ability and intent to strike outside of the country. CT assets have reported of Al-Shabaab sightings and concentration from across the regions of Somalia and close to the border prefectures with Kenya.

Thus, CT operators for Kenya and Somalia urged to upscale patrols, increase surveillance and scouting of security defense posts as well on critical infrastructures in an effort to pick on enemy signatures especially along the Kenyan-border with Somalia and to subsequently be able to thwart possible surprise raids.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Sightings reported proximal to military FOBs especially in Lower Juba, its highly likely the enemy intend to concentrate it troops and spring up opportunist attacks on FOBs and patrol teams. The threat of IEDs remains high, and therefore, troops are advised to always maintain an offensive posture.

Al-Shabaab’s activities are a build-up of what has been registered for the past weeks of the month of May. Therefore, troops are advised to adopt Counter-IED measures and maintain an offensive posture. Sustained air surveillance is much recommended.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity. The militant group’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Thus, joint CT and COIN operators should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring against the Islamists groups in an effort defeat and annihilate them, besides to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.