Latest intelligence reports cited by UNSC has revealed that Taliban and Al-Qaeda have maintained a close relationship with Al-Qaeda in a number of times celebrating Taliban’s perceived successes. The report further indicates that an approximate presence of 180 to 400 fighters affiliated with Al-Qaeda” from “Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Pakistan are settled in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s homebase.
According to the UN report, the relationship between the Taliban in Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda remains close, with the latter being claimed to have “renewed its bayah (pledge of allegiance) to Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada”, the supreme leader of the Taliban.
The report by the UN Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team assessed the presence of the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) terror groups in Afghanistan with assessment revelation suggesting that Al-Qaeda has a safe haven under the Taliban and increased freedom of action. The report also suggested that Al-Qaeda emir (leader) Ayman al-Zawahiri might still be alive as he has issued more frequent recorded messages since August, and there is now proof of life for him as recently as February 2022.
Ayman al-Zawahiri has been the leader of Al-Qaeda since 2011, succeeding the terrorist group’s former leader Osama bin Laden following his death. Al-Qaeda fighters from as far as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Pakistan are settled from across provinces of Afghanistan, such as Paktika, Zabul, Helmand, Ghazni, Nimruz and Kandahar.
The report underscored the presence of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and its core leadership, and that of its affiliated groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and having a haven in Afghanistan. Since the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, Al-Qaeda has exploited this takeover to attract new recruits and funding to inspire other Al-Qaeda affiliates globally.
Afghanistan is viewed as a friendly environment for continued occupancy and it’s believed that core Al-Qaeda leadership under Ayman al-Zawahiri “is reported to remain in Afghanistan: more specifically, the eastern region from Zabul Province north, towards Kunar along the border with Pakistan.
Al-Qaeda is reported to remain in the south and east of Afghanistan, where it had a historical presence. Some Member States noted a possible shift of core members to more westerly locations in Farah and Herat Provinces. Numbers for Al-Qaeda core remain in the “several dozen” range. Al-Qaeda seem to enjoy greater freedom under the new Afghan-Taliban regime, but its operational capability is limited.
Thus, it’s unlikely Al-Qaeda will be able to mount or direct attacks outside Afghanistan for the next year or two, owing to both a lack of capability and Taliban restraint. Member States remain concerned that it will regenerate that capability and that the Taliban commitment to restrain it is uncertain in the medium-to-longer term.
The CIA’s deputy director has warned that the flow of Al-Qaeda fighters/followers back to their former base means it could reconstitute in one to two years and bring forth a potential/formidable movement of Al-Qaeda to Afghanistan.
Also, in Somalia, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab terrorist group at some point lauded Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and insinuating that the “Western Crusaders” notably the US troops were defeated by Taliban further cementing Taliban-Al-Qaeda budding relationship.
Another notable as per several intelligence reports, indicate that Al-Qaeda’s number two in command, Sayf-Al Adl (Saif al-Adel) still as the likely successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, who has long been reported to be in poor health. Adl is assessed as a capable veteran commander who could take the group forward The Al-Qaeda’s number two, Sayf-Al Adl (Saif al-Adel), has long been reported to be in Iran.
