Weekly Counter Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of June 12th – June 16th 2020.
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab is an affiliate of Al-Qaeda operating in East Africa region. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them.
Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curtailing its activity and strike power. Concerted counter-terrorism efforts have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the region; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling almost a fifth of Somali territory.
In barely a week, Al-Shabaab has upscaled its attacks in Somalia recording more than ten attacks and recording at least one attack in the neighboring Kenya’s Mandera County. Its more of repeat attacks in Somalia. The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases, convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country.
The militant group has boosted its presence in regions where geography and economic activities favors them and hence, they are persistently fighting to maintain control. Al-Shabaab main operational areas remains in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions, Middle Shabelle, Mogadishu and Banadir districts.
Regionally, Kenya has become a direct target of Al-Shabaab. The east African nation has suffered a series of attacks during the past months in the North Eastern Province and the regions on the borders with Somalia, particularly the county prefectures of Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Lamu. The group is escalating its attacks on military and civilian targets, government headquarters and educational institutions in those areas, and is also laying landmines there to target security and military patrols besides targeting critical infrastructures such as communications masts.
Recently Claimed Attacks (June 12th – June 16th 2020)
- June 12. Two government soldiers killed in an explosion in Afgooye district of Lower Shabelle. Two explosion targeted SNA military convoy. Tankers carrying fuel also destroyed.
- June 12. Al-Shabaab fighters target SNA military base in Awdheengle and Barire areas in Lower Shabelle. Heavy exchange of gun fire reported with casualties from both sides being reported.
- June 12. Al-Shabaab claimed a cross-amputation (amputation of the right hand and left foot) on a man accused of banditry in the town of Kurtunwaarey, Lower Shabelle.
- June 13. Heavy IED blast reported in Balcad town, Middle Shabelle. One government soldier killed and two others wounded. Heavy clash reported following the ambush raid, some 30km to the capital Mogadishu.
- June 13. Al-Shabaab reportedly probed SNA-FOB in Abdale Birole from various directions using PKMs and AK47 rifles.
- June 13. Attack on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) reported in Lower Juba region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four soldiers in the armed attack, and seized machine guns near Dhobley town.
- June 13. IED blast reported targeting Ethiopian troops. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for two IED explosions on Ethiopian troops heading to Baidoa in Bay region of Somalia. Another explosion targeted ENDF troops in Yurkud, a small town in southwestern Gedo region. Two military vehicles were also destroyed in the attacks.
- June 13. Al-Shabaab claimed to have publicly executed two men for allegedly working for Somali Intelligence (NISA). The two men identified as Ahmed Mohamed Foodey and Abdi Dahir Hirey were executed by Al-Shabaab’s firing squad in Ruun-Nirgood district of Middle Shabelle.
- June 13. Attacks reported on AMISOM base manned by KDF troops in Kolbiyow area near the border.
- June 13. IED planted in Balcad town of Middle Shabelle successfully defused by anti-mine unit.
- June 13. Reports from NEP Kenya indicate of possible abductions of non-locals in Fino in early morning hours. Four ladies reportedly abducted. Two reported to have been raped and returned to Fino while the whereabouts of the other two is unknown.
- June 14. AMISOM military base in Balcad Middle Shabelle attacked. The base manned by Burundian troops attacked with mortar shells. One soldier killed.
- June 14. Al-Shabaab claim attack on government officials in the districts of Banadir. The Al-Qaeda aligned militant group claimed multiple attacks on government officials in Kaawa Godey, Yakshid and Dharkenley.
- June 14. Al-Shabaab claim an attack in Warankarra, Lafey in Mandera NEP Kenya. The militants attempted to destroy Safaricom BTS mast with grenades. KPR manning the mast responded and killed two militants. One KPR also killed in the intense gun fight.
- June 15. Al-Shabaab claim several IED explosions targeting AMISOM-Ugandan troop’s convoy on road linking Golweyn and Bula Mareer towns in Lower Shabelle.
Insights
Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The uptick in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.
The group has perfected its propaganda arm. By claim attacks and pub;ish them via the group’s media, the group aims at strengthening its local popular base by attracting more sympathizers in a manner that translates into increased activity at the local and regional levels, and ultimately boosts its presence and influence.
There is a possibility that Al-Shabaab could expand its attacks and terrorist operations in Somalia and escalate terrorist attacks against AMISOM troops with the aim of accelerating their withdrawal from Somalia and filling the void this will increase its area of control.
Through its attacks inside Kenya, the group seeks to invite broader media coverage given the fact that Kenya is a major hub for diplomacy, tourism and business in Africa. In addition, Kenya hosts a number of international organizations, and is therefore a major target for the group to hit interests linked to Western countries in the region.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track the Islamist militant activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of significant militant’s upsurge could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made if not decisively countered.
