The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab al Mujahideen structure in Gedo has suffered significant losses in the past 21 days. The groups economic activities, particularly contraband business and trafficking of cannabis, were targeted by Kenya Army Special Operations teams. Also targeted were sympathetic businessmen, clan warlords, collaborators, and sleeper cells.
The group’s structure along the border with Kenya has been significantly weakened and its operations disrupted. The group’s cells which were embedded within the area clan militia have been compromised and intercepted. Despite fictitious media and political claims about the groups posturing in the area, Counter Terrorism Operations by the Intelligence Service and the Kenya Military continue to weaken and disrupt the terrorist group.
These Special Operations have preempted and subsequently disrupted terrorist attacks and related activities including destruction of communication masts, targeting of passenger service vehicles, and local administration officials. A Decline in attacks targeting security forces on patrol has been noted in the same period. Clan militia and bandits who target businessmen in the area have been targeted and their operations decommissioned in the ongoing counter terrorism operations. These CT and COIN Ops are long-term hence current success does not mean they are coming to a close.
Most importantly to note is that, the decline and disruption does not connote defeat of the terrorists by security agencies, rather it means that, on the short-term, the operations have paid off. Kenya’s intelligence service and military will continue to identify and disrupt threats posed by the Somali based terror group. The terror group continues to dominate Gedo region of Somalia that borders Kenya in the upper North East. This allows the group to train and deploy cells along the border. The terror group plans to attack various targets in Kenya, with attacks targeting security forces along the border being their primary objective. Secondary objectives include stoking sectarian conflict in NEP, weakening of intelligence collection in the AOR, and sociopolitical domination.
