Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of November 1st – November 14th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate continues to conduct attacks both within Somalia and in neighboring Kenya, targeting civilians, the Somali state, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The militant attacks remain steady with at least one or two attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for Somalia.

In the first two weeks of November at least 27 attacks have been recorded with Somalia, the home base of Al-Shabaab taking the largest share of at least 26 attacks. Only one attack has been recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab. Kenya’s Lamu prefectures have witnessed repeat attacks which are similar in that, all have been by IED planted on major roads especially the ones used by patrol teams.

Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. Lower Shabelle regions of Somalia has recorded the highest number of attacks. Most of the attacks targeted both local and foreign troops (AMISOM). The group preferred attack types remains the use of IEDs (Landmines and roadside bombs). Ambush attacks are also becoming too common; being witnessed along roads. Somalia has a challenge of poor roads and vegetation, thus Al-Shabaab are exploiting these factors to plant roadside bombs/landmines besides conducting frequent ambush/surprise attacks on military convoys.

Notable is increased use of IEDs, landmines, roadside bombs and suicide vehicle borne (SVBIEDs) operations, taking more than half of total operation in these two weeks under review. Ambush attacks and assassinations are also steadily increasing from across the regions of the Horn of Africa nation as recorded below.

AS Claimed Attacks (November 1^st – November 14^th)

Week 1

• On November 1^st, reports from Tixile area on the outskirts of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle indicate that a landmine blast targeted a vehicle carrying the Somali government troops. Local sources confirm that one soldier was killed, two other wounded and a military pickup (Technical) was destroyed.
• On November 1^st, AMISOM soldiers killed in blast in Lower Shabelle. At least two Ugandan soldiers were killed and three others injured in a roadside bomb blast near the town of Shalaambood. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On November 1^st, A community conservancy ranger was on Monday killed while two people were critically injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in Lamu. The vehicle was headed to Kiunga Town on the border of Lamu with Somalia from Mararani.
• On November 2^nd, a heavy attack was carried out on a military base belonging to the South West administration in Qansahdhere district, Bay region of Somalia, no casualties were reported.
• On November 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on SNA troops in general vicinity of Qoryooley district of Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided local and foreign operated military bases in Afmadow, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported on attempted probe on AMISOM and JSF operating bases.
• On November 3^rd, Reports from Lower Shabelle region indicate that Al-Shabaab militants night launched a major attack on an AMISOM base in Buur Olow area on the outskirts of Barawe district on Wednesday night. Local sources reports say artillery shelling and heavy gunfire from both sides was heard but no details on casualties were provided.
• On November 4^th, an AMISOM military base operated by Burundian troops in Burane area on the outskirts of Mahaday district, Middle Shabelle came under artillery fire but no casualties were reported.
• On November 4^th, AMISOM military base operated by the Ethiopian troops in Halgan area of Hiran, central Somalia came under artillery fire from Al-Shabaab fighters. No details casualties were provided.
• On November 5^th, Bardhere airport manager survived assassination attempt after Al-Shabaab assassins stormed his house at night. A guard was however injured.
• On November 6^th, In Hiran region, IED explosions were reported in Beledweyne and Bula Burde districts, corresponding local sources confirm that at least government 3 soldiers were injured in the blast in Bula Burde while 2 soldiers were injured in an explosion in Beledweyne.
• On November 7^th, heavy clashes reported in Janale and Awdheegle districts of Lower Shabelle, with Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly attacking two government operated bases. No details on casualties were reported.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab and SNA clashed in general vicinity of Kaaran district of Mogadishu. At least three civilians were killed and others injured.

Week2

• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab and AMISOM patrol team clashed in the general vicinity of Qoqani, Lower Juba. The militants reported to have fled with injuries from the brief gunfight.
• On November 8^th, Reports from Bardhere say that at least two government soldiers were killed and several others were injured after explosions took place inside a training camp in Bardhere town, Gedo region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, through Andalus Radio.
• On November 9^th, reports from Galbaharey town in Gedo region confirm that a car bomb that exploded targeted a convoy of vehicles carrying federal government troops who were on their way to an Ethiopian operated base in the area. One government soldier wounded as per local sources.
• On November 9^th, Heavy clashes between Al-Shabaab militants and AMISOM forces in Lower Shabelle region reported. Initial reports indicate the fight broke out in Eljaalle area, in the outskirt of Marka.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab to have fired about several mortar shells at an AMISOM military base at Kudhaa Island in the Jubba regions, southern Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead an intelligence (NISA) officer in the Geed Jaceyl neighborhood of Wardhigleey district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack via to Radio Andalus.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried out by an improvised explosive device (IED) vehicle driven by a suicide bomber targeted AMISOM and SNA convoy in the vicinity of the busy Banadir intersection, in the capital Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed explosion killed at least 5 Djiboutian soldiers in Jalalaqsi district. Reports from Jalalaqsi district f Hiran say that at least 5 Djiboutian soldiers were killed when a landmine hit their armored vehicle. The blast also destroyed a military vehicle and wounded at least six soldiers.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a suicide car bomb operation in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate the attack targeted a convoy of AMISOM troops that was from Baidoa.      At least two civilians caught in the explosion. Al-Shabaab exaggerated to have killed a dozen soldiers.
• On November 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided an AMISOM Forward Operating Base operated by Ugandan troops at Barawe airport, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.  Four soldiers killed and three others wounded in the ambush operation.
• On November 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an operation against AMISOM troops in general vicinity of Hudur district of Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On November 14^th, AMISOM troops attacked in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. An RCIED attack targeted the convoy of AMISOM-Ugandan troops in the outskirts of Shalaambood. At least three bomb experts killed.
• On November 14^th, Al-Shabaab targeted SNA troops in the general vicinity of Daynile district of Mogadishu. At least two soldiers were killed and others wounded in the surprise operation claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On November 14^th, Armed Al-Shabaab operatives claimed to have also attacked a gathering of SNA troops in Mirinyaada neighborhood of Karaan district of Mogadishu but no casualties were reported.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab terrorist related kinetic activity slightly remained steady in the two weeks under review. The first week recorded at least 13 attacks and second week recorded at least 14 attacks.

The attacks have largely been skewed towards FOBs in central and southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab has notably scaled up attacks on AMISOM operated bases in Gedo, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and also in Hiran.

Thus;

• Counterterrorism operators both for Somalia and Kenya need to scale up their operations against the Islamist militants.
• Attacks most targeting military troop’s convoys and their FOBs are largely repeat kind of attacks.
• In relation to this finding, counterterrorism operation thus encouraged to scale up surveillance, both aerial and ground, conduct scouting around FOBs/DPs perimeter in order to pick on enemy signature when approaching and subsequently raise alarm accordingly.
• Sharing of intelligence between various counterterrorism units much encouraged. Intelligence gathered from locals also keenly to be utilized as Al-Shabaab are known to embed they cells with the community and thus any HUMINT provided must not be ignored.
• In addition, counterterrorism operators in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.
• Change of routine especially by patrol units/convoys much encouraged to avoid targeted/ambush raids by the terror operatives. Military convoys encouraged not to be predictive but to change on routes as often as possible.
• The militant group continue to exploit geography, terrain (poor roads) and vegetation in Somalia regions to plant roadside IEDs/landmines and constantly to conduct surprise ambush attacks on military convoys.
• Notably, Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss in the battlefield this style hasn’t changed.  

Conclusion

It’s with no doubt that Shabaab al Mujahideen the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia is morphing in a bid to adapt to resilient AMISOM battlefield tactical capabilities besides highly dynamic kinetic operations by a section of Kenya’s Special Counter Terrorism Operators along the border with Somalia.

Subsequently counterterrorism operators for Kenya and Somalia need to be keen on mapped areas, flashpoints and those frequently targeted localities/towns that never miss in repeat attacks on weekly basis. The CT operator then need to re-evaluate on their counter approach to decisively deal with the menace.

For Kenya, notable joint CT operators to be on high alert following recent breakout of terror operatives associated with Al-Shabaab from a maximum prison. Other terror operatives associated with Islamic State cell in coastal region also remains at large and as such, terrorist threat in Kenya (especially for Nairobi, Mombasa, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera) remains all-time high.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.