As pressure mounts against the jihadist groups in Somalia, the Islamic States (IS) militants may seek to establish foothold in the neighboring Ethiopia.
Islamic State militants in Somalia operating in the country’s northern region announced recently that they will be releasing jihadist materials in Amharic without specifying when, security experts views this step as unmistakably aimed at winning recruits in restive, neighboring Ethiopia.
IS Somalia also known as Abnaa ul-Calipha (Islamic State in Somalia) made the announcement in a three-minute video released last month by pro-Islamic State sites and endorsed by the official IS media.
The video posted the words to one of Islamic State’s best-known chants in Amharic and promised IS will release more materials in the language, one of the two most-spoken tongues in Ethiopia.
Security experts at Strategic Intelligence (SI), believes Islamic State through this video announcement is reaching out to Ethiopia’s Muslim community in an attempt to take advantage of ongoing ethnic and political unrest in Africa’s second most populous nation thus multiplying threat levels in East Africa region. So far, IS operations have been reported in The Democratic Republic of the Congo and in Mozabique.
IS may take advantage of many dissatisfied groups in Ethiopia’s political transitions. Instances of communities with grievances not being addressed, violence in Ethiopia is becoming a norm, and citing these gaps, IS may utilize the opportunity to recruit, to attract followers and perhaps to establish presence.
Pro-Islamic State militants emerged in Somalia in October 2015 after a small group of fighters from militant group Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab broke away and pledged allegiance to IS emir Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.
Since then, the group has maintained a presence in northeast Somalia and around Mogadishu, even while facing a relentless offensive from both Al-Shabaab and the Somali government.
The Amharic video indicates that Islamic State in Somalia has members from Ethiopia. In December 2017, IS Somalia released a video featuring a jihadist from Ethiopia speaking in Amharic. IS identified the jihadist as Abu Zubayr Al-Habash. It was not clear what his position was. The group this year issued another video announcing that Al-Habash has died, without indicating the cause of death.
A former IS Somalia member who cited by a number of credible open sources says the group has about eight Ethiopians among its estimated 300 members.
IS sees in Ethiopia a potential opportunity, the group has been expanding its influences and its activities across Africa quite aggressively – so far with small results in much of the continent but they are persisting.
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