Kenya is likely to be hit by a major terrorist attack after intelligence findings by Strategic Intelligence confirms a common pattern of movement by Al-Shabaab agents into Kenya.
Al-Shabab militants have warned they will carry out a large scale attack in Nairobi
Recent arrests of terrorist associates and terror alerts by the government further credits this possibility.
The arrest of Ali Bakaar a close associate of slain Al-Qaeda operative Saleh Ali Saleh Nabnah in a Kenya bound bus at Hosingow adds up to a list of both international terrorists associated with Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab.
Ali Bakaar, a 35-year foreign al-Shabaab fighter was traveling to Kenya from the port of Kismayu, a stronghold of the Al-Shabaab
Currently a manhunt by Kenya anti-terror unit for a German terror suspect, Ahmed Khaled Mueller is on course.
Earlier in the year terror police arrested Jermaine Grant a British national who along his girlfriend Samantha Lewthwaite planned to bomb resorts in Mombasa Kenya.
Analysis
Strategic Intelligence analysis has assembled these events into a cohesive, logical framework and a credible terror attack plan reference point.
There are too many Al-Shabaab agents moving into Kenya after the terror groups warning.
This could mean they all had a common plan and specific objectives with a time-line.
Intelligence reports and anti-terror findings show that the German, Ahmed Khaled Mueller, has critical intelligence on Al-Shabaab massive terror attack plans on Nairobi.
Al-Shabaab might have deployed other low profile agents who are not known to authorities.
Local operatives maybe already facilitating the attack by providing intelligence leads on security situation in Kenya and specifically the target.
Public areas, exhibitions, eating places, and transport facilities besides rallies have proved effective in the recent past and Al-Shabaab might find either of these targets a suitable for the attack.
The terror attack may target a political rally by member of the government (The attack in Mombasa targeted a Christian rally while another hit a transport terminal in the busy Capital Nairobi).
The threat matrix takes shape of a puzzle with the end result very obscure but surreal with grenades and other types of explosive devices as choice weapons.
With Yemen as a key source of arms and explosives, Al-Shabaab may launch a multi-pronged terror attack using explosives acquired from Yemen.
