Terrorism in Africa is on the rise with Islamist extremists seeking to establish caliphates in parts of the continent. In August 2022, security analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) reported that terrorist attacks increased 300% over the last decade in Africa, with violent attacks doubling over the last three years. Sub-Saharan Africa has become a “locus of terrorism” after notably the easing of COVID restrictions and an increase in unemployment.
The effects of global warming devastating drought have hit Africa the hardest, with rural and poor communities becoming even more vulnerable to the influence of extremist groups. The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) has reported that Al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based group, is the “largest and most kinetically active Al-Qaeda network in the world, and has proved both its will and capability to attack the United States, it interests and its allies.” The spread of terrorism in over a dozen countries in Africa is a cause for concern, especially as a cold war unfolds between the superpower nations, notably United States, Russia, and China.
- The US military strategy has shifted away from counterinsurgency (COIN) operations to focus on inter-state strategic competition, particularly with Russia and China, weakening its ability to establish an “American influence in unstable, strategic regions.” This has led to a reduction in COIN operations, which has enabled terrorist groups to take advantage of the shift.
- The bulk of counterterrorism actions have been reactionary and not pre-emptive, often resulting in ignoring root causes of radicalization.
- With US and African Union (AU) withdrawals across the continent, terrorist groups have become even more emboldened, as seen with Al-Shabaab’s growth in Somalia after the US withdrawal in 2021.
- Russian and Chinese propaganda campaigns throughout Africa have contributed to destabilizing democracy, impacting international relations and furthering conflict. China’s probable military expansion on the continent has also caused great concern in Washington regarding its impact on trade routes used by the West along with US and allied military operations.
- The US should be focusing on building partnerships with African countries to take advantage of their economic opportunities. Competition amongst Russia, China and the US will be furthered by the global reliance on African natural resources, such as those used for electronics and military weapons. Africa contains a third of the world’s mineral reserves and is a key supplier of resources that provide “crucial economic and national security purposes” for the US. The US is incredibly vulnerable to disruptions in the global oil market, as was seen during the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014.
Overall, the rise of terrorist activities in Africa continent has become a cause for concern, with various countries, including the US, Russia, and China, competing for influence in the region. The US, in particular, has been shifting away from counterinsurgency operations, making it more challenging to establish influence and prevent terrorist activity. Building partnerships with African countries to take advantage of their economic opportunities may be a way for the US to strengthen its presence in the region while reducing the potential for conflict.
