In the last week of May, the Islamic State’s provinces in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have continued to conduct attacks against civilians and security targets. While the attacks still follow the same MO that each group has carved out in the two countries; the groups appear to be copying from each other with the shootings, beheadings, and looting being reoccurring.
In DRC, the insurgents continue to launch attacks on the Christian population as well as the military who they have dubbed interventionists. The insurgents attack villages killing residents with knives and guns and often engage the troops deployed in the North Kivu Province to curb the growing threat of the ISIS-affiliated militants. The group appears to be amercing weapons and ammunition evidenced by repeated attacks on the military as evidenced by the growing number of attacks in military bases and personnel especially in the Rwenzori sector in Beni.
ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (22nd May- 31st May 202)
Mozambique
- 21st May- ISCAP insurgents attacked and killed 5 former members of the group in Ulumbe in Palma District who are said to have deserted the ranks of the organization.
- 26th May- At least 9 people killed following clashes in Palma and14 houses in the Quelimane neighborhood were burned to the ground by ISCAP insurgents.
- 28th May- ISCAP attacked the Administrative Post of Olumbe, Palma district but the attack was thwarted by the military but without displacing hundreds of residents.
DRC
- 19th May- 13 people were killed by ISCAP in Mambasa, Ituri province
- 21st May- 1 soldier was killed after a Congolese military patrol was attacked by ISCAP; weapons and ammo were seized.
- 24th May- 2 soldiers were killed after a military base was attacked and razed to the ground near Kangbayi Prison in Beni.
- 26th May- 18 people were killed by ISCAP with machetes and automatic weapons in Vuthotholya in the Rwenzori sector, Beni
- 27th May- 2 killed and several others wounded after ISCAP attacked and burned a truck carrying Christians in Kasima along the Beni-Kasindi road.
- 28th May- 5 killed and several houses set on fire in an ISCAP attack in Mighende village in Rwenzori sector
- 28th May- 3 people were killed after the truck they were traveling in was set on fire in Kilya, Rwenzori sector.
- 28th May- 6 people were killed and 2 wounded after ISCAP attacked farmers in their fields in Kinyatsi Village in the Rwenzori sector.
- 29th May- 20 people were killed in an attack by ISCAP in Boga village, Irumu territory in Ituri province
- 29th May- 19 people were killed in an attack by ISCAP in Tchabi village, Irumu territory in Ituri province
- 30th May- 3 people were killed in an attack thwarted by FARDC in Bulongo rural commune in the Rwenzori sector.
ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS
In DRC ISCAP has been conducting attacks that are mainly concentrated in the Rwenzori sector in North Kivu and Irumu Territory in Ituri Province with the attacks targeting both civilians and military personnel. As evidenced herein, the group has been concentrating their attacks in Rwenzori despite there being military, UN peacekeepers, and recent UPDF forces in the region. The group has been ambushing the military both to capture weapons but also to instill fear among the residents by exposing that the military cannot protect the population.
The increased involvement of MONUSCO, deployment of Ugandan Troops, and the state of siege all point to the growing threat by the group which until recently was labeled a guerilla rebel group.
In DRC, fear among the residents of Irumu territory in Ituri province is at an all-time high as residents lament the growing number of ADF terrorists active in the villages. Recurring incursions especially in Banyali-Tchabi chiefdom has prevented residents from accessing their fields, looting property including livestock and valuables.
Cabo Delgado
In Mozambique, President Macron said France would contribute to maritime operations support in Mozambique, as France has vessels in the region, but only after Mozambique calls for assistance and the SADC regional bloc approves. The pledged support couldn’t come at a better time as there is clear evidence that the ISCAP in CD has been taking advantage of the ocean and boats to conduct attacks and affairs in most districts. However, there is significant resistance towards the numerous pledges for support by Mozambique’s international allies with analysts maintaining that foreign intervention might accelerate the situation and would not necessarily be the best solution without addressing the root cause of the insurgency. Intelligence indicates that brute force and military intervention will only be effective partially as the socio-economic factors will not have been addressed and might only fuel the resurgence and further triggering bloodshed in the province.
Security forces in Mozambique have been conducting strategic attacks to recapture Mocimboa da Praia with an offensive in the second largest town on the way to MDP being the target CT operations. Diaca has been a strategic location for the insurgents since 2020 when it was captured and has recently been home to a major training camp and as is recapture would be monumental and the first major step towards recapturing MDP from ISCAP.
While the financial sources of ISCAP Mozambique have been elusive, intelligence has revealed that the group has been ransoming hostages especially foreign ones. Ransoms range from about $3,000 to nearly $35,000 and are arranged through a combination of satellite phone and mobile phone contact. Among those ransomed include Brazilian nuns who were ransomed for $25000 and two Indians for at least $33000 with intelligence indicating that there are more POWs that the group seeks to exchange.
