Weekly Counter Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia), Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st November – 6th November: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab an affiliate of Al-Qaeda operating in East Africa region continue to record increased successful attacks from across regions of Somalia and its neighbor Kenya.

In the first weeks of November, Al-Shabaab has upscaled its attacks, recording at least 13 attacks in Somalia and one attacks in the neighboring country (Kenya). Its more of repeat attacks in Somalia.

In the Horn of Africa, Somalia, the Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases and convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country.

In East Africa, Kenya has become a direct target of Al-Shabaab, sporadically conducting attacks along the border counties with Somalia. In the past one week, the Islamist Al-Shabaab conducted a low intensity raid that targeted a patrol unit in Dhamase, Mandera county NEP. The militants also destroyed a communication mast at Karo in Mandera before fleeing towards Somalia. In the Kenya NEP and coastal prefectures bordering Somalia, Al-Shabaab primary targets remain military posts, police, police reservists, and telecommunications infrastructure in northeastern Kenya prefectures, a longtime area of recruitment for the militant group.

Recently Claimed Attacks (1^st November – 6^th November 2020)

• On November 1^st, suspected mortar shells targeted AMISOM military base at Dhusamareb airport in Galgadud region operated by Ethiopian troops, central Somalia. Corresponding local reports indicate that, at least 7 loud explosions were heard inside the airport. No casualties were however reported.
• On November 1^st, Al-Shabaab fighters attack attempted attack on AMISOM’s military bases in Qoqani, Abdalla Birole Kudha Island, all in Somalia’s Lower Juba region successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported in the brief low-scale raids.
• On November 1^st, Al-Shabaab militants claimed attack on Somali military bases in Jannale and Awdhegle towns in Lower Shabelle region. At least four soldiers were wounded in the gun battle.
• On November 1^st, At least 3 people were killed following an exchange of gunfire between Somali government forces and suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen near Mogadishu’s Dabka junction.

• On November 1^st, Al-Shabaab responsibility on attacking Somali government soldiers on the outskirts of Jalalaqsi district, Hiran region of Somalia. One soldier reportedly killed in ambush raid.
• On November 2^nd, At least three people have been killed and four others wounded after Al-Shabaab militants attacked intelligence officers in deadly gun assault in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
• On November 2^nd, President of Somalia’s Galmudug state, Ahmad Abdi Kariye (Qor-qor) survived an assassination attempt after his plane came under anti-aircraft fire while taking off from Dhusamareb airport in, Galgadud region, central Somalia. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On November 3^rd, heavy fighting reported between Somali security forces and Al-Shabaab fighters in Hiran region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters using AK47 rifles and other small weaponry raided an attack on a military base operated by Somali government forces and forces of HirShabelle regional administration in Bulo Burte district.
• On November 3^rd, Al-Shabaab IED target a senior military official in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu. Reports indicate that targeted the vehicle that was carrying Ali Hussein, the military official in Siinka Dheer vicinity killing him alongside his body guard. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the IED attack.
• On November 5^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attempted attack on AMISOM military base in Hosingow town of Somalia’s Lower Juba region thwarted. No casualties were reported as militants fled through the thickets.
• On November 5^th, A suspected Al-Shabaab IED planted by roadside targeting Kenyan patrol team reported near Dhamase area in Mandera County, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported. The militants also destroyed communication masts at Karo in Mandera before fleeing towards Somalia.
• On November 5^th, Al-Shabaab carried out an operation in Galkayo, Mudug region of central Somalia killing a senior Puntland official.
• On November 5^th, A landmine blast targeted a convoy carrying Somalia’s Minister of Labour and Social Services Duran Farah Ahmed at KM-4 Junction in the capital, Mogadishu. No reports of casualties as the minister and his guards survived the explosion which occurred just after the convoy had passed the road.
• On November 6^th, Al-Shabaab militants claims attack on US and Somali special forces in Gandarshe town, 48km south of the capital Mogadishu.  One US soldier and four Somali soldiers killed, 1 American and 3 Somali soldiers also wounded in the VBIED attack.

Assessment/Observations

The militant group has entrenched itself in central and southern Somalia with an insurgency that has targeted Somali security forces, foreign troops and Somali citizenry. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them.

Also, its notable of increased military activity and presence in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia. Nearly half of the attacks, this week have happened in these two regions. Preferred attack type remains the use of IEDs, Landmines and Roadside bombs, though ambush attacks and targeted attacks on key individuals also remain very common especially in the capital Mogadishu.

Al-Shabaab has surged attacks targeting foreign forces in the Horn of Africa. Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curbing its activity and strike capabilities. Concerted COIN efforts have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the region; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling almost a fifth of Somali territory and fighting to gain more localities, villages and towns.

Apart the previous trends where the group concentrated attacks in the capital Mogadishu and its environs, the group has boosted its presence in regions where geography and economic activities favors its operations and hence persistently fighting to maintain control. Al-Shabaab main operational areas remains in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions, Middle Shabelle, Mogadishu and Banadir districts.

The Somali-based militant group also in this period under review conducted high profile attacks that targeted a senior military official and a Labour Minister in the capital Mogadishu. However, the minister and his guards survived the explosion which occurred just after the convoy had passed the road. Also, the President of Somalia’s Galmudug state, Ahmad Abdi Kariye (Qor-qor) survived an assassination attempt after his plane came under anti-aircraft fire while taking off from Dhusamareb airport in, Galgadud region, central Somalia.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general and on Kenya n soil which is also the militant’s key target. The uptick in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

There is a possibility that Al-Shabaab could expand its attacks and terrorist operations in Somalia and escalate terrorist attacks against AMISOM troops with the aim of accelerating their withdrawal from Somalia and filling the void this will increase its area of control.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and by the recent trends warns of significant militant’s upsurge that could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made if not decisively countered.