Executive Summary
Mozambique has seen a recent and unexpected decrease in ISM activities, likely due to intensified counterinsurgency operations by the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF). This decline contrasts with earlier intelligence that had predicted an increase in militant actions following the withdrawal of SAMIM troops from Cabo Delgado. The RDF has adopted new tactics, including the use of helicopters in combat operations, which may be a response to the discovery of IEDs in the region and political pressures to quickly neutralize ISM forces.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), ISCAP continues to pose a serious threat, executing multiple attacks on military and civilian targets in Ituri and North Kivu. The group’s sustained violence, particularly along critical routes like the RN4, highlights their ongoing ability to destabilize the region. Meanwhile, civil unrest in North Kivu, where residents have protested against inadequate security, underscores the deep mistrust between local communities and the armed groups meant to protect them.
Mozambique
- 22nd Aug- ISM militants detonated an IED targeting a truck between Chitundaand Mungui in Cabo Delgado.
- 20TH Aug- ISM terrorists attacked civilians in Mbau area in Mocimboa da Praia (MDP).
D.R. CONGO
- 23rd Aug- A Ugandan military base in Nakasongola District in Uganda was attacked by armed ISCAP militants. The group claimed attack.
- 19th Aug- ISCAP clashed with a Congolese Militia Forces Patrol, near Ndimo (RN4) in Ituri Province. Ndimo, is situated along the RN4 which is a deadly stretch of road continues to be a focal point of violence for ISCAP attacks.
- 18th Aug- ISCAP militants conducted an armed assault against Congolese armed troops In Mandela near Mwinyi In Lubero region in North Kivu.
- 18th Aug- ISCAP conducted an armed assault on Congolese Militia Forces as well as an Arson attack of over 150 Christian Homes, in and near Esege in Lubero Region.
Analysis and Insights
There has been a notable decrease in ISM movements, attacks and sighting in the past two weeks which partly because renewed counterinsurgency efforts by Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF). The lull is unexpected as intelligence in July had predicted a likely surge in attacks in August following the departure if SAMIM troops from Cabo Delgado. However, it is evident that RDF has significant stepped up their efforts to fight ISM and fill the security gap left by the SAMIM troops.
The RDF has recently shifted tactics in Cabo Delgado’s Macomia district by deploying helicopters in combat against ISM. This marks a significant change from their previous reliance on small, mobile infantry units and civil-military cooperation efforts. The increased use of air power, while potentially effective, comes with risks, particularly regarding civilian casualties, a concern that has been highlighted by past incidents involving other forces like the Dag Advisory Group (DAG).
The tactical shift might be driven by the discovery of numerous IEDs in the region, which could impede ground forces’ movement. Additionally, political pressures may be pushing for a quicker resolution against ISM, now believed to be isolated in coastal and forest areas. However, for these air operations to be effective, they must be supported by ground forces to maintain control over cleared territories, with long-term success dependent on Mozambique’s commitment to rebuilding local infrastructure.
Socio-economic activities in Manguredjipa, North Kivu, have been paralyzed as residents observe a three-day “dead city” protest demanding security and the departure of the Wazalendo groups, who they accuse of failing to protect them from ADF attacks. The protest highlights the ongoing instability in the region, where civilians feel abandoned despite the presence of Ugandan and Congolese soldiers. This situation underscores the fragility of security efforts in conflict zones and the deep mistrust between local communities and armed groups.
Conclusion
The recent lull in ISM activities in Mozambique is a double-edged sword. While it indicates the effectiveness of the RDF’s counterinsurgency operations, it may also signal a temporary regrouping of ISM forces, potentially leading to more sophisticated attacks in the future. The RDF’s tactical shift to aerial operations, while necessary, must be carefully managed to avoid civilian casualties and ensure long-term stability in cleared areas.
In the D.R. Congo, ISCAP’s continued aggression in Ituri and North Kivu demonstrates their resilience and adaptability, posing ongoing challenges to security forces. The civilian unrest in North Kivu highlights the urgent need for a more effective and trusted security presence in the region.
In Mozambique, continued aerial operations should be paired with robust ground support to secure and rebuild liberated areas. Intelligence efforts must focus on detecting potential ISM regrouping and preparing for possible future escalations.
In DRC, Reinforced collaboration between Congolese and Ugandan forces is crucial to neutralize ISCAP strongholds, particularly along the RN4 and in North Kivu. Addressing local grievances through improved community engagement and protection efforts will be key to reducing civil unrest and strengthening counterterrorism initiatives.
The coordinated application of military, intelligence, and socio-economic strategies will be critical in addressing the complex threat posed by ISM and ISCAP across both regions.
