Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Tanzania, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in October 2020

The Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) has been making bold moves in the region with the group expanding its territory to include Tanzania. In October, the group marked the 3^rd anniversary in Mozambique and 6^th in DRC where the group has primarily been based out of but was crowned by the acknowledgment and unofficial induction of Tanzania as part of the larger ISCAP. The gruesome attacks by ISCAP in Tanzania and the simultaneous attacks by the group in Mozambique continue to cement the threat caused by the group and can be viewed as the group’s way of creating a hub and haven for jihadist from across East Africa. In Somalia, the group appears to have been reinvigorated by the activities of its ISCAP counterpart leading to the recording of the attacks towards the end of the month including the use of a VBIED targeting civilians. In DRC, ISCAP proved fierce fealty to ISIS-central when they released prisoners after which a spike of ghastly attacks targeting civilians and Christians has been observed towards the last week of the month. It is important to note that ISIS al Naba has become keen to propagate and highlights the achievements of its offshoots in the East and Central Africa region with promise for more attacks which heightens further the threat caused by ISIS in the region. 

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, Tanzania, Somalia, and DRC For October 2020

DRC

• 14^th October- 2 people were killed by ISCAP terrorists in Baeti, Batangi-Mbau in North Kivu. The militants further burned shops and homes during the attack.
• 16th October- several Congolese soldiers were killed and wounded by ISCAP militants in Beti, Beni territory. Weapons and ammunition seized.
• 17th October- Congolese military patrol vehicle was hit by an IED in Lese, Beni where three soldiers were seriously injured. This is the first report of ISCAP in DRC using explosives in their attacks.
• 20th October- Armed ISCAP terrorist attacked Kangbayi central prison in Beni following a directive by ISIS-Central to its affiliates to free prisoners. The jailbreak set at least 1300 prisoners free among them over 230 belonging to ISCAP or were sympathizers of the outfit. 
• 22nd October– 7 people killed by ISCAP in an attack on the Vulichi group in the Beni region.
• 22^nd October- 5 hostages rescued from ISCAP and 9 terrorists killed in Banande-Kainama sector
• 23^rd October- 12 bodies discovered in Beu and Mbilali in Beni believed to have been killed by terrorists that escaped from Kangbayi prison.
• 25^th October- 2 civilians killed in Mabondo village near Loselose, Rwenzori sector, buildings burned down.
• 28^th October- 2 bodies recovered in Batau river, Rwenzori sector believed to have been kidnapped from Makisabo village earlier in October
• 29^th October- 23 people killed, several kidnaped in Baeti, Batangi-Mbau, at least 40 houses and a church burned down.
• 30^th October- 4 killed in Vutska, Batangi-Mbau by ISCAP.
• 31^st October- 21 people killed in Lisasa village in the Rwenzori sector by ISCAp terrorists.

Mozambique

• 1^st October- ISCAP attacked Mucojo Sede administrative post in Macomia where the forces the military to flee.
• 1^st October- militants attacked Messano, Macomia where the people had fled leaving a few elderly people. The militants gave them $125 and commanded them to leave and to never return.
• 2^nd October- insurgents attacked Magaia village, Muidumbe where they were attacked and driven out by a local militia just like in late September.
• 2^nd October- ISCAP attacked Pangane, Macomia burned the local chief’s residence and took hostages from a local mosque.
• 3^rd October- Terrorists attacked and burned down buildings in Quirimize and Naunde, Macomia
• 3^rd October- several people beheaded in Mucojo, Macomia, houses burned down and people forced out as part of a fear campaign to allow smooth occupation by ISCAP in the coming days.
• 9^th – 12^th October- 10 people were killed when ISCA attacked Nambo and Pangane, Mucojo in Macomia district. 3 people were killed in Nambo while 5 civilians and 2 soldiers were killed in Pangane. Additionally, 62 people were kidnapped, houses, and vehicles including military vehicles were set on fire.
• 14^th October- ISCAP attacked Tanzanian troops in Kitaya, Mtwara region north of Mozambique’s border with Tanzania. Kitaya is located approximately 160km from MDP and is the first attack by the group across the border but the second against Tanzanian troops.
• 14th October- 3 simultaneous attacks were conducted by ISCAP in Ndique and Quissanga (the same day as the Mtwara attack in Tanzania) and lefts 2 civilian shot dead and homes burned to the ground.
• 15th October- 1 girl was burned alive after ISCAP attacked and burnt houses in Nacata village, Macomia
• 15th October- ISCAP killed several people as well as burned down homes in Namalala village, Palma District
• 16th October– Mozambican Marines were attacked by ISCAP in Olumbe, Palma district forcing them to retreat to Afungi Peninsula
• 18th October- ISCAP attacked and beheaded 2 people in Ntapuala, Macomia
• 19th October– militants attacked Koko, Macomia, and kidnapped one person, and set several homes on fire.
• 19th October– ISCAP looted supplies and food from Iba, Meluco, and Olumbua in Macomia, Nanhoma, and Quissanga.
• 20^th October– ISCAP attacked Koko in Macomia, Roma, and Nangololo in Meluco, Matema Island in Ibo where they kidnaped 5 youths and Churumba in Quissanga. In all locations property was damages and heavy looting occurred.
• 26^th October- a border guard unit officer was killed in Pundahar, Palma
• 27^th October- clashes between Mozambique’s FDS and ISCAP in Syria base in MDP left at least 22 militants killed and equipment seized.
• 31^st October- attacked 7 villages in Muidumbe; Magaia, Muatide, Nchinga, Miteda, 24 de Marco, Muambala, Namacande several times where at least a dozen soldiers were killed or kidnapped.

Tanzania

• 14th October– ISCAP attacked Kitaya village, the Mtwara region north of Mozambique’s border with Tanzania. Kitaya is located approximately 160km from MDP and is the first attack by the group across the border but the second against Tanzanian troops.
• At least 20 people were brutally beheaded with videos circulated on social media. Additionally, the attackers captured a Tanzanian military WZ-551 armored vehicle and assorted weapons.
• 21^st October- militants attacked the Kilambo border post in Tanzania located 30km east of Kitaya.
• 28^th October- insurgents attacked Nanyamba, Lilombe, and Tandahimba where government buildings were burnt down as well as 3 Churches intelligence also indicates that local admin and civilians were killed. Police stations were looted and razed to the ground.

SOMALIA

• 24^th October- 2 police officers were killed and 1 injured after their checkpoint was targeted by ISS in Mogadishu.
• 25^th October- 3 SNA soldiers were shot and killed with pistols in Mogadishu.
• 27^th October- ISS shot and killed government officials as well as detonated a VBIED in Mogadishu that killed 2 civilians.
• 29^th October- a military checkpoint was attacked with automatic weapons and RPGs on the road between Mogadishu and Afgoye

OBSERVATIONS AND INSIGHTS

SOMALIA

In Somalia, as has been the observable trend in the past couple of months, Abnaa Ul Calipha has maintained a low profile that has been broken by the periodical attacks in the security apparatus in the country’s capital Mogadishu. However, it is significant to note that following the ISIS-central mention of Tanzania, the group has stepped up its attacks with attacks targeting police, military, and civilians in the capital. The group recorded the use of VBIED, RPGs, automatic weapons, and pistols all in one week deviating from the group’s previously observable modes of operation. The use of sophisticated weapons can be viewed as a show of might and capabilities that the group possesses and as such positioning itself to reinforce the growing foothold of ISIS in the East Africa region.

The shift in the group’s operation ought not to be taken lightly seeing as ISIS is seeking to consolidate territory in the East and Central Africa region. More often than not the SNA and allied troops are fighting al Shabaab and a resurgence of Abnaa puts a new spin to the nature of CT operations in Somalia and especially in the capital.

DRC

In DRC, October activities evidence the threat posed by ISCAP in the country with the group making strategic moves that continue to reiterate its fealty to ISIS-Central. The month marked the first reports of the group using IEDs as well as promptly following a directive by the Caliph to all its province when they attacked Kangbayi central prison in Beni and released almost 250 prisoners belonging to ISCAP as well as the terror group’s conspirators and sympathizers arrested in North Kivu Province. The genesis of IEDs could propel the group into larger-scale attacks with bigger casualties as the groups seek international recognition as a formidable ISIS branch. While the group continues to match up attacks with its counterpart in Mozambique, it has increased its profile to include targeted attacks on churches and health facilities to indicate that the group requires resources to sustain its growing number.

Corruption within the ranks of the military continues to be a major deterrence to successful CT operations in North Kivu. The last week was particularly jarring as a senior military officer disappeared with stipends worth at least $85, 573 meant to pay stipends to the military in his sector in the Beni-Mbau region infamously known as the ‘death triangle’. This is not an isolated issue as in the past corrupt officers have allowed known militants go free as well as help release a top financier for ISCAP in Beni transporting a huge sum of money to the terrorists and the repercussions can be felt in the increased sophisticating in attacks and weapons used by ISCAP.

TANZANIA

In October, Tanzania’s region bordering the Rovuma river and Mozambique has seen an uptick in militant activities with Jihadists primarily headquartered in Cabo Delgado crossing the border to conduct attacks. The attacks that started with the mid-month attack in Mtwara where at least 20 people were brutally beheaded and building burned down were experienced. Towards the end of the month, a border post, police station, and three villages were attacked a move that has heightened the threat posed by the cross-border nature of the ISCAP threat. The upsurge of attacks in Tanzania is in line with Al Naba’s promise of more attacks in the country and certainly serves as a recruitment drive for jihadists in the neighboring East African nations including Kenya and Uganda.

Tanzania will offer very fertile grounds for the establishment of an ISIS branch because it already has a significant jihadi presence of recruits who were unable to travel to Somalia to join al Shabaab or ISS. Such establishment may quite possibly benefit from some significant local support from aggrieved communities especially in Mtwara because in previous years Tanzania’s government has cracked down on Islamists and jihadist sympathizers in the south of the country. while some of them dispersed throughout Tanzania and the region and it would not be surprising if others have established more formal links with ISCAP as evidenced by recurring videos online of Tanzanian jihadists training in caves.

Notably, Tanzania repatriated refugees that crossed from Cabo Delgado back and have since banned the exportation of foodstuff across to the Mozambican side as they believe that it could quite possibly end up in the hands of ISCAP and thereby supporting the organization by proxy. Also, since the militants looted the police station there is heightened paranoia that the militants are amercing weapons to increase the lethality of the group and capability to hold combat position in comparison to before where they majorly used crude weapons like machetes and knives.

MOZAMBIQUE

October saw the expansion of the ISCAP Mozambique branch to conducting simultaneous attacks in two countries a move that has garnered the group international recognition. The attack is the first prominent step that ISCAP has made towards becoming a regional or international-focused terror organization deviating from the previously local-based outfit. Additionally, ISCAP attacks towards the end of the month of shown a trend of looting which means that the group is hoarding supplies and foo both in anticipation of more recruits and in preparation for the lean season. It can also be in preparation to launch more sophisticated attacks as a response to the recent announcement of reinforcement to the troops in Cabo Delgado. President Nyusi recently announced the troops would be reinforced In line with the arrival of new military equipment from South Africa that includes Armoured personnel vehicles that will enhance the mobility of the troops into territory held by ISCAP.

The group has also seemingly created a social media propaganda platform by intensified its social media campaigns and propagating their attacks as was evident in the attacks in Mtwara, Tanzania where the terrorists are seen beheading a man and setting his head on the road as a way to celebrate their attack. 

Several civilians were injured after the Tanzanian side fire RPGs and guns across the border to keep off insurgents and prevent them from crossing the border. The increased activity was especially felt in villages in Palma and Nangade and if the same continues it could stir tensions between the two neighbors who ought to work together to root out the growing threat on both sides of the border.

In terms of CT, there have been reports that the Mozambican government is establishing militias that are geared at helping the government troops and police in fighting ISCAP as well as protecting the civilian populace. It is reported that such government-backed militias are active in Lyuala and Nangude in Muidumbe districts, in Mueda Districts as well as Licangano in Macomia district. Historically, most fights against terrorist groups tend to be more successful where there is overwhelming cooperation between the local population and the government forces and as such the formation of the militias are paramount in the war against ISCAP and ensuring the holistic success of COIN efforts both in Mozambique and across the region.