Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the period of 1st August- 9th August 2024

Executive Summary

Mozambique: On August 1st, 2024, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants engaged in two significant clashes: one with local security forces in the Darumba area of Macomia district and another with Rwandan Naval Forces in the Crimize region, also in Macomia district. This escalation highlights ISM’s ongoing threat, despite previous gains by international forces. The resurgence of ISM, following the withdrawal of Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces, suggests a well-coordinated effort to regain control in Cabo Delgado, leveraging strategic shifts in tactics and local influence.

Somalia: On August 5th, 2024, Puntland security forces arrested two Islamic State Somalia (ISS) militants in Bosaso City and recovered weapons, underscoring the persistent threat posed by ISS in the region. The operations in Puntland, a strategically vital area, reflect a complex security landscape where local and transnational militant activities intertwine. The competition between Al-Shabaab and ISS, compounded by external influences like weapon transfers from the Houthis, exacerbates the security challenges in Somalia’s Bari region.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): From August 1st to 6th, 2024, the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) escalated its campaign of terror in North Kivu and Ituri provinces. The attacks resulted in numerous casualties, including targeted assaults against civilians and Christians. The sighting of ISCAP leader Musa Baluku in Oicha city indicates a high level of operational control and suggests that the group’s recent violence is part of a broader, coordinated campaign. The increasing brutality, including public executions and widespread destruction, has triggered calls for more effective responses from both Congolese and international authorities, yet these demands have largely gone unmet.

Peace Unity-2024 Military Drills: China and Tanzania are conducting joint military exercises, “Peace Unity-2024,” in Mapinga, Tanzania. These drills focus on enhancing maritime security and counter-terrorism operations, with a significant naval component involving Chinese and Tanzanian vessels. The exercises aim to strengthen regional security and deepen military cooperation between the two nations, potentially contributing to broader stability in East Africa.

Mozambique

• 1^st Aug- ISM militants clashed with security forces in Darumba area in Macomia district in Cabo Delgado.
• 1^st Aug- Militants clashed with Rwandan Naval Forces in Crimize region in Macomia district.

SOMALIA

• 05^th Aug– Security forces in Puntland arrested Two Islamic State Somalia (ISS) and recovered weapons in Bosaso City.

D.R. CONGO

• 6^th Aug- ISCAP militants led an armed assault against Civilians in Minamaimbu area in Lubero region.
• 5^th Aug- Congolese militais forces clashed with ISCAP terrorists in Bandulu area in Lubero region.
• 5^th Aug- ISCAP militants attacked Christians in Itembo area in Lubero region in North Kivu.
• 4^th Aug- ISCAP militants led an armed assault against Congolese Army and Militia forces in Bandulu area in Lubero Region.
• 2^nd Aug- ISCAP militants clashed with Congolese and Uganda armed forces in Mumbe area in Beni region.
• 1^st Aug- ISCAP terrorists captured and executed two Christians in Idohu region of Ituri province.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

DRC

Sighting of Musa Baluku

In a recent attack by ISCAP, eye witnesses reported seeing the de facto leader of ISCAP, Musa Baluku who was present during some of the attacks in Oicha city. The presence of Musa Baluku indicates a high level of operational control and coordination within the ISCAP in this region. Leaders like Baluku are often involved in strategic planning, logistics, and execution of high-profile attacks, suggesting that the recent surge in violence might be part of a broader, well-coordinated campaign by ISCAP. His involvement on the ground might encourage more aggressive actions from the rebels, signaling to his followers that he is directly involved and committed to their cause.

Increased Threat Level: The sighting of Baluku raises the immediate threat level in the region. His presence could indicate plans for further escalations in violence, potentially targeting civilians and state actors alike. This could lead to a more concerted response from the Congolese government and possibly international forces, though such a response may provoke retaliatory actions from the ISCAP.

Escalating attacks

The provinces of North Kivu and Ituri in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have witnessed a sharp escalation in violence over the past two months, as attacks by ISCAP have intensified. In the past two months ISCAP has unleashed a wave of terror across these regions, leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. Civilians have borne the brunt of this brutality, with at least 500 people, including women and children, savagely murdered. The ISCAP’s tactics have been particularly gruesome, involving the slitting of throats and the torching of homes, vehicles, and other civilian property.

The territories of Beni, Lubero in North Kivu, and Irumu and Mambasa in Ituri have been especially hard-hit by these attacks. Despite the state of siege declared in these areas, the response from both national and international authorities has been widely criticized as inadequate. The New Congolese Civil Society (NSSC), a prominent civic organization, has condemned the ongoing slaughter and expressed deep frustration over the lack of effective action to protect the population.

This situation presents a dire humanitarian crisis, with the lives of countless civilians hanging in the balance. The NSSC’s demands for stronger action, both domestically and internationally, highlight the urgent need for a coordinated and robust response to address the escalating violence in North Kivu and Ituri. Without such intervention, the cycle of violence and suffering is likely to continue, deepening the already devastating impact on the region’s long-suffering population.

MOZAMBIQUE

The recent warning from the UN highlights a concerning escalation in the activities and sophistication of the Islamic State’s branch in Mozambique, particularly in the northern Cabo Delgado province. Over the past few months, ISIS-Mozambique has intensified its operations, demonstrating an increased capacity for violence and strategic complexity. This resurgence comes despite the efforts of international forces, including those from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), who had initially made significant gains in pushing back the insurgency between 2021 and 2023.

The group’s resurgence can be attributed to a variety of factors. Notably, the phased withdrawal of international forces, especially from SADC, has left a security vacuum that ISIS-Mozambique has exploited. The militants have adapted their tactics, moving into previously unaffected areas and shifting their approach towards the local population. This includes not only increasing attacks but also attempting to win over civilians by trading goods and adopting a less brutal approach compared to their earlier operations. This strategic shift is part of a broader effort by the group to establish a governance model similar to that of other Islamic State affiliates in regions like Iraq and Syria.

Moreover, the group’s propaganda efforts have ramped up, with the central Islamic State media apparatus paying more attention to Mozambique, reflecting its growing importance in the global jihadist network. The insurgents’ ability to attract foreign fighters and carry out cross-border operations further complicates the security situation, making it a regional threat rather than just a national one.

Peace Unity-2024 military drills

The “Peace Unity-2024” joint military exercises between China and Tanzania are taking place in the eastern port city of Mapinga, Tanzania. The exercises aim to enhance the capabilities of both countries’ troops and deepen mutual trust. The naval component includes China’s comprehensive landing ship Wuzhishan, guided missile destroyer Hefei, and four Tanzanian patrol vessels. The drills focus on safeguarding maritime transportation security, with activities ranging from joint search and rescue to counter-terrorism, counter-piracy, and patrol maneuvers. The land phase features joint combat planning, infiltration, and reconnaissance. Both sides emphasize that these exercises will contribute to regional peace and stability.

SOMALIA

The recent security operations by Puntland forces, specifically the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) and the Puntland Intelligence Security Agency (PISA), underline the region’s complex security landscape and the escalating threat posed by militant groups such as Al-Shabaab and ISIS. These developments in Bosaso, a key port city in Puntland, are part of a broader struggle to maintain stability in a region that has become increasingly vulnerable to terrorist activities.

Increasing Militant Activity in Bari Region: The Bari region’s mountainous terrain has long been a haven for militants. The presence of both Al-Shabaab and ISIS in this region highlights the competitive yet symbiotic relationship between these groups, which often vie for control over territory and resources but may also cooperate when it benefits their strategic goals. The capture of weapons and arrests of suspects indicate ongoing attempts by these groups to fortify their positions and expand their operational capabilities.

Regional and International Implications: The link between local militants and external actors, such as the Houthi rebels, is particularly concerning. The potential for weapons transfers from the Houthis to Al-Shabaab and ISIS not only underscores the transnational nature of these threats but also suggests that regional conflicts, like the war in Yemen, are having a direct impact on Somalia’s security situation. This could lead to an influx of more sophisticated weapons and tactics into Puntland, escalating the conflict.

The ongoing security operations in Puntland are a critical component of the broader fight against terrorism in Somalia. While these efforts are yielding results, they also reveal the complexity and scale of the challenge. The region’s strategic importance, the entrenched presence of militant groups, and the potential for external influences all contribute to a volatile security environment that requires sustained attention and international cooperation. The Puntland authorities must continue to enhance their intelligence and operational capabilities, while also addressing the root causes of militancy, such as poverty, unemployment, and political disenfranchisement, to achieve long-term stability.

CONCLUSION

The recent surge in militant activities across Mozambique, Somalia, and the DRC signifies a worrying escalation in violence and the increasing sophistication of terrorist groups like ISM, ISS, and ISCAP. These groups are exploiting regional vulnerabilities, such as the withdrawal of international forces in Mozambique and the complex geopolitical landscape in Somalia and the DRC.

The sighting of ISCAP’s leader Musa Baluku in the DRC, alongside coordinated attacks, underscores the potential for further violence and the urgent need for a more robust and coordinated response from both national governments and international stakeholders. The Peace Unity-2024 drills between China and Tanzania offer a glimpse of the type of international cooperation needed to combat these threats, though broader and more sustained efforts will be essential to achieve long-term stability in these conflict-ridden regions.