Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in September 2024

Executive Summary

In September 2024, Islamic State (IS)-affiliated insurgents escalated their activities across Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and neighboring regions. Mozambique saw an alarming resurgence of violence, including beheadings, attacks on civilians, and military confrontations. Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) further expanded recruitment efforts into Malawi, raising concerns about regional destabilization. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) increased its attacks, especially in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, where it targeted civilians, Christians, and military forces. The humanitarian crisis in these areas has worsened, with over 5.8 million displaced.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 26^th Sep- insurgents beheaded a man less than 10 km from Palma town, marking the first attack so close to town since at least 2022.
• 26^th Sep- ISM militants conducted an armed assault near ManGuna in Cabo Delgado.
• 25^th Sep- intelligence reported movement and sightings of ISM terrorists in several areas in CD among them Chitama, Nkonga and Quinto Congresso villages in Nangade as well as In Mocimboa da Praia.
• 24^th Sep- Following an apparent lull, ISM clashed with allied troops outside Mucojo in Macomia where at least 4 soldiers and 10 insurgents were killed, and four terrorists were captured.
• 19^th Sep- Several civilians were attacked by ISM terrorists and one person was killed in Mbau in MDP district.
• 13^th Sep- ISM militants attacked set fire to several houses in Mbau village in MDP district.
• 11^th Sep- Islamic State (IS) insiders reportedly referenced expansion into Malawi after national intelligence services uncovered youth recruitment.
• 10^th Sep- ISM led an armed attack against civilians in Negure area of Muidumbe district.
• 05^th Sep- a Mozambican military patrol was ambushed and attacked by ISM terrorist in Mocimboa da Praia.
• O5th Sep- Seven bodies washed up on the coast north of MDP town in unexplained circumstances. All were blindfolded with their hands tied behind their backs and one was beheaded.
• 04^th Sep- ISM conducted an armed attacked against the civilian populace in Negure are in Muidumbe district.
• 01^st Sep- several civilians were injured after ISM mounted an armed assault against the population in Chiure in Chiure district.
• 01^st Sep- ISM terrorists led an armed assault against Mozambican Army troop in Bugi in Cabo Delgado.

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC)

• 30^th Sep- Civilians were attacked by ISCAP militants in an armed assault that occurred in Bilulu area in Ituri province.
• 26^th Sep- ISCAP militants carried out an armed assault against Congolese Armed troops in Lolwa, Ituri.
• 25^th Sep- Joint Ugandan and Congolese troops were attacked by ISCAP terrorists in Manguredjipa in Lubero Region, Ituri province.
• 25^th Sep- two Christians were capture and executed by ISCAP in Mambelenga area In Ituri.
• 23^rd Sep- ISCAP conducted an attacked against military and civilian targets in Tolytoly in Ituri.
• 22^nd Sep- Congolese were targeted and attacked by ISCAP militants n Tolytoly in Ituri.
• 21^st Sep- ISCAP conducted successive attacks against government-allied Wazalendo militia and civilians in Mididi village in Lubero region.
• 20^th Sep- a Christian was captured and executed on RN4 road near Lolwa in Ituri.
• 20^th Sep- ISCAP orchestrated an armed attack against civilians in Bandulu locality in Lubero region.
• 19^th Sep- ISCAP conducted an armed assault against civilians in Mbau area in MDP district.
• 19^th Sep- ISCAP militants conducted an armed assault against Wazalendo Militia forces in Manguredjipa in Lubero region, North Kivu.
• 18^th Sep- ISCAP terrorists captured and executed a Christian In Bandimabesi village, Ituri.
• 12^th Sep- Christians in Ngerega area were attacked and injured by ISCAP rebels along the RN4 road.
• 11^th Sep- ISCAP militants conducted an armed assault on the Christian village of Esege in Lubero region.
• 11^TH Sep- ISCAP militants attacked several villages on the RN4 road near Biakato area IN Ituri province. The villages include Kombokombo, Badulingi and Bamedi.
• 10^th Sep- ISCAP militants led an armed attack against civilians on the RN4 in Bandembesi, Ituri. At least three people were killed and several others injured.
• 07^th Sep- ISCAP militants captured and execute two Christians in Idohu area in Ituri.
• 04^th Sep- Joint efforts between Congolese and Ugandan troops left four ISCAP jihadists neutralized and 9 of their hostages freed, including two of Ugandan nationality.
• 04^th Sep- ISCAP terrorists conducted an armed attack against civilians Near Biakato in Ntabiya region in Ituri province.
• 04^th Sep- ISCAP terrorists led and armed assaults on civilians near Mamove are in Ituri province.
• 02^nd Sep- ISAP militants led an armed assault on Congolese Military vehicle in Bandilika, Ituri Province. At least one civilian and one soldier were killed in the attack.
• 01^st Sep- Joint efforts by FARDC supported by the Ugandan army (UPDF) destroyed one of the strongholds of ISCAP terrorists east of Makumo and Biakato, in the Babila-Babombi chiefdom, Mambasa territory, Ituri province. 3 jihadists killed, two computers, a grenade and an AK47 type weapon recovered by the army. It was revealed that these computers served these rebels in connecting to the ISCAP and EI (Individual Enterprise) networks.

ANALYSIS

Mozambique

Malawi’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) recently uncovered a youth recruitment scheme linked to insiders expanding their influence in the country, raising serious security concerns. This discovery comes amid growing regional instability, particularly as neighboring Mozambique grapples with the spread of Islamic State (IS)-aligned insurgents in its northern Cabo Delgado province. The possibility of this recruitment effort being connected to the Islamic State’s broader operations in Southern Africa cannot be overlooked.

The Islamic State in Mozambique (ISIS-M) has been actively recruiting vulnerable youth, leveraging poverty, unemployment, and disillusionment to expand its ranks. As the insurgency in Mozambique continues to destabilize the region, it is likely that IS operatives are seeking to expand beyond Mozambique’s borders into neighboring countries like Malawi. The recruitment of Malawian youth could be part of a wider strategy to establish a foothold and bolster militant forces in the region. These recruitment networks, often masked by community groups or social media campaigns, target young people who are struggling with economic hardships, making them easy prey for extremist ideologies. The discovery of this scheme by the NIS suggests that Malawi, like Mozambique, could become a new target for IS expansion, further exacerbating regional insecurity.

Insurgent activity in Mocímboa da Praia signals a renewed threat in areas thought to be stabilized by Rwandan forces, revealing difficulties in fully securing the region. Islamic State-linked fighters are employing both violence and media propaganda, using attacks to project strength and maintain influence. Targeting key infrastructure like the N380 highway disrupts military and civilian movements, indicating a strategy to weaken government control. Despite recent successes, Rwandan forces remain vulnerable to insurgent ambushes, showing gaps in intelligence and operational awareness. The insurgents’ use of hit-and-run tactics and IEDs highlights their adaptability in avoiding direct confrontations. Rising violence has forced the reduction of UN operations, intensifying the already dire humanitarian crisis in the region.

On Armed Forces Day, President Nyusi provided a detailed overview of the insurgency in northern Mozambique, tracing its roots to the arrival of individuals from the Great Lakes region in 2009, linked to the Allied Democratic Forces, now part of Islamic State Central Africa Province. He also mentioned the involvement of Mozambicans returning from religious studies abroad in fueling the insurgency. Nyusi acknowledged the support of foreign forces from Rwanda, Tanzania, and the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique but did not reference the short-lived missions of the Wagner Group or the Dyck Advisory Group in Cabo Delgado. The president confirmed that the insurgent leadership remains stable, with Ulanga, a Tanzanian, as the leader, supported by Faridi Suleiman Haruni, despite the death of operational head Bonomade Machude Omar.

Nyusi also addressed the insurgency’s financing, pointing to kidnappings, extortion, and financial backing from IS, though he suggested that IS’s military support is mainly limited to technical assistance and recruitment. He highlighted the government’s ongoing propaganda and deradicalization efforts, which have been active since August 2022, but reaffirmed the state’s uncompromising stance, ruling out negotiations. Nyusi cautioned against collaborating with insurgents, acknowledging criticisms about human rights abuses but defending the state’s actions, particularly in Macomia district, where a significant number of state-led political violence incidents target civilians.

President Nyusi inaugurated a new police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) base in the Metuge district of Cabo Delgado on September 28. The 183 million meticais ($2.9 million) facility is the largest barracks constructed since Mozambique’s independence in 1975. The base includes a memorial honoring South African pilot Mark Gilbert Tout and Mozambican marksman Safinate Bernardo Matai, both of whom tragically died when Tout’s Bat Hawk light aircraft crashed in April. The memorial recognizes Tout as a “sniper pilot,” while the base’s shooting range is named after Matai, commemorating their roles in Mozambique’s fight against insurgency.

In another development, Admiral Joaquim Mangrasse, head of Mozambique’s armed forces (FADM), held strategic meetings with Rwandan and Tanzanian military leaders. On September 27, he met Major General Emmy Ruvusha, who commands Rwandan security forces in Cabo Delgado, to review ongoing joint military efforts against the insurgency. Earlier, on September 25, Mangrasse discussed security cooperation with General Jacob Mkunda, Tanzania’s armed forces chief, during the 60th anniversary of FADM. Tanzanian forces continue to assist in counter-insurgency operations in Nangade district, further emphasizing the regional nature of the conflict.

Despite these military advancements, security concerns persist, especially regarding the reopening of schools in Macomia and Quissanga. Dinita Dos Santos Dinis, a senior representative of the National Teachers’ Organisation, criticized the government’s push to send teachers back to these districts, calling it a “dangerous illusion” to claim that security has been fully restored. She urged the government to ensure genuine safety before schools are reopened, highlighting ongoing risks for civilians in the region.

D.R. CONGO

In September 2023, the security situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s North Kivu and Ituri provinces remained volatile, with the presence of the ISCAP being a major factor. ISCAP intensified its attacks on local communities, particularly targeting civilians and displacing large numbers of people. The group has been responsible for numerous violent raids, ambushes, and massacres, contributing to an already dire humanitarian crisis. In these provinces, over 5.8 million people have been displaced due to the ongoing violence, compounding challenges such as food insecurity and disease outbreaks.

North Kivu has seen ISCAP target both military and civilian positions, further destabilizing the region. The Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and the United Nations peacekeeping forces (MONUSCO) have struggled to contain the spread of ISCAP attacks, leading to increased instability, particularly around Beni and the Virunga National Park. The violence has significantly hampered humanitarian efforts, with organizations like UNFPA reporting a surge in sexual violence, particularly affecting women and girls in displacement camps, as access to health services remains severely restricted.

In Ituri, ethnic tensions between the Hema and Lendu communities have escalated, further complicating the security landscape. ISCAP has taken advantage of these divisions to expand its influence, executing attacks that often lead to retaliatory violence between local groups. Despite international efforts to address the violence, the ongoing conflict continues to displace civilians, strain local resources, and create an environment where ISCAP can thrive, exacerbating the region’s already fragile security situation

The increased attacks by ISCAP (Islamic State Central Africa Province) in North Kivu and Ituri highlight the growing threat of extremist violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the last two months, the group’s brutal tactics, including mass killings, arson, and property destruction, have terrorized civilian populations, with the toll exceeding 500 deaths. This surge of violence, despite the state of siege, exposes the limited capacity of the Congolese government and its military forces to counter ISCAP’s insurgency effectively. Human rights organizations have asked for these regions to be declared disaster areas underscores the severity of the humanitarian crisis, while their appeal to the international community to act against what they term a “genocide” points to growing frustrations over perceived international neglect and the failure of peacekeeping initiatives. The local demands for tax relief and stronger military action reflect the community’s desperation for both immediate and long-term solutions to this enduring conflict.

General Richard Tobias Chagonapanja’s call for greater collaboration in North Kivu highlights MONUSCO’s need to coordinate with local and regional actors, including the Ugandan army (UPDF) and Congolese military (FARDC), to effectively combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Chagonapanja acknowledges that the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) cannot defeat the ADF alone, stressing the importance of joint efforts to prevent the group’s movement and protect civilians.

In Ituri, Deputy Defense Minister Samy Adubango’s discussions with MONUSCO reflect a similar focus on strengthening cooperation to tackle growing insecurity, particularly in Djugu. Recent MONUSCO efforts, like repelling ADF attacks on displaced persons’ camps, show the mission’s value, but sustained peace requires continued collaboration with local actors, political leaders, and security forces. Both cases underscore that defeating the ADF and restoring peace depend on a comprehensive, multi-partner approach rather than military force alone.

INSIGHTS AND CONCLUSION

Mozambique:

• The proximity of recent attacks near Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, areas previously thought to be stabilized by Rwandan forces, reveals the insurgents’ resilience and ability to regroup. Despite earlier military gains, ISM insurgents continue to disrupt civilian and military activities, using guerrilla tactics like ambushes, IEDs, and targeted beheadings.
• The expansion into Malawi through recruitment efforts is particularly alarming, as it signals ISM’s intention to broaden its influence across Southern Africa. The recruitment of disillusioned and vulnerable youth, leveraging socio-economic hardships, is part of a long-term strategy to grow their ranks beyond Mozambique. This development could potentially turn Malawi into another hotspot for extremism, adding to regional instability.
• President Nyusi’s acknowledgment of regional military cooperation with Rwanda and Tanzania underscores the complexity of the counterinsurgency efforts, but gaps in intelligence and operational coordination still leave these forces vulnerable to IS ambushes.
• Additionally, the insurgency’s financing through kidnappings and extortion highlights the ongoing challenge of cutting off ISM’s financial and logistical networks. While Mozambique’s deradicalization and propaganda efforts are notable, their effectiveness remains questionable given the rising violence and lack of comprehensive civilian protections.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC):

• ISCAP’s increased attacks in North Kivu and Ituri indicate the group’s growing capacity and boldness. The targeting of Christians and the use of brutal tactics such as mass killings and executions point to a deliberate strategy to sow terror, destabilize communities, and deepen ethnic and religious divisions.
• The joint military efforts between Congolese, Ugandan forces, and MONUSCO, while important, have not been sufficient to curtail ISCAP’s expansion. The insurgents are exploiting gaps in military presence and the failure of peacekeeping forces to provide consistent protection to vulnerable populations, especially in displacement camps.
• The humanitarian crisis in the region is dire, with millions displaced, and the breakdown of essential services has left civilians increasingly exposed to violence, disease, and food insecurity. ISCAP has capitalized on the weak state infrastructure and ethnic tensions, further entrenching their presence in the region.

The resurgence of Islamic State-linked insurgencies in Mozambique and the DRC presents a serious challenge to regional security. In Mozambique, despite military efforts from Rwandan and Tanzanian forces, insurgent groups remain highly adaptable, using a mix of military tactics and psychological operations to project strength and maintain control over key areas like Cabo Delgado. The spread of insurgent influence into Malawi is an emerging threat that requires immediate attention to prevent the broader destabilization of Southern Africa.

In the DRC, ISCAP’s systematic targeting of civilians and Christian communities, coupled with weak state and international responses, has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. The ongoing ethnic tensions in North Kivu and Ituri have provided fertile ground for ISCAP to expand its operations, further undermining regional stability.

Strategic Recommendations:

1. Enhanced Regional Cooperation: Mozambique and neighboring countries like Malawi, Rwanda, and Tanzania must strengthen intelligence-sharing mechanisms and enhance military coordination to counter the transnational nature of IS insurgencies.
2. Targeted Counter-Recruitment Campaigns: Governments in the region, particularly in Malawi and Mozambique, should increase efforts to counter extremist recruitment by addressing the root causes of youth vulnerability, such as unemployment and social disillusionment.
3. Humanitarian Aid and Civilian Protection: In the DRC, immediate international intervention is required to provide relief for displaced populations and secure vulnerable communities. Strengthening MONUSCO’s mandate and capabilities to protect civilians is essential for preventing further ISCAP advances.