Al-Shabaab’s Continued Capacity to Stage Attacks, Even in The Face of Steady Military Pressure:
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, remains the main security challenge in Somalia and one of the most significant threats to regional stability.
The jihadist group affiliated to Al-Qaeda aims to undermine confidence in international peacekeepers and bring down western-backed Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) besides destabilizing the regional peace. The recent uptick in the group’s activity in Somalia suggests of group’s resilience despite concerted counterterrorism operations against it.
The terrorist group continue to stage attacks from across regions, districts and towns of Somalia claiming the lives of more civilians, military and government officials, placing a significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and regional forces due to the risks and threats posed by the group.
Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curtailing its activity and strike power. In a period of one week, the Somali-based Islamist terrorists’ group has claimed more than ten attacks in a number of theaters, notably in southern and central Somalia. Combined ambush assaults, grenade attacks, mortar shelling, assassinations and suicide attacks continue to be recorded in what appears to be part of an accelerating offensive by Al-Shabaab.
Lull has been witnessed in a couple of past weeks in Kenya, which is also a huge target for Al-Shabaab. There have been no major terror activities especially in the country’s frontier counties of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa) an indication of alertness of the country’s CT actors.
Recent Claimed Attacks (June 5th – June 9th 2020)
- June 6. Somali police killed in an IED explosion. Another three police officers wounded in the same blast. Al-Shabaab hurled a hand grenade at the police officers on patrol mission in the city of Beledweyne in central Somalia.
- June 6. Heavy fighting reported between Al-Shabaab fighters and Ethiopian troops outside Hudur town. Al-Shabaab on its pro-media claimed responsibility of the attack saying that its fighters ambushed troops convoy and killing dozens including those allied to the pro-government forces loyal to Mukhtar Robow. The troubled Hudur is a town in the south Western Bakool region of Somalia. It serves as the province’s capital and is the center of the Hudur District.
- June 7. Somali police identified as Mahamed Ali was shot dead by Al-Shabaab Assassins in the vicinity of Howlwadag district of Mogadishu.
- June 7. A Local government official shot dead by Al-Shabaab operative welding pistol in Huriwaa district. Huriwaa or Heliwaa is a district in the southeastern Banaadir region of Somalia. It includes the northeastern neighborhoods of the national capital, Mogadishu.
- 7 June. Heavy clashes reported between Al-Shabaab militants and Somali army troops near Abal village, about 18km south of Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia. 26 killed from the warring sides, with Al-Shabaab claiming to have killed 15 government soldiers including 2 commanders trained by Turkey.
- June 8. Al-Shabaab suicide bomber detonated himself inside a Mogadishu military camp. At least three soldiers were reported to have been killed in the attack. A senior army chief managed to escape the attack unhurt. The militant operative had disguised as a member of the military to gain access to the training camp.
- June 8. Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Somali government forces in Kaaraan district in the southeastern Banaadir region of Somalia. A soldier was killed and three others wounded in the close quarter battle.
- June 9. Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush assault on AMISOM troops in Janaale, Lower Shabelle. Corresponding local sources reports indicate that the clash resulted to death of three civilians and two injuries.
- June 9. The Al-Qaeda aligned militants staged an attack on AMISOM-Burundian base in Balcad district of Middle Shabelle mortar shelling. (Repeat kind of attacks, Al-Shabaab overran an SNA base near Balcad on June 4.
- June 10. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of an attack in Baidoa. Reports from Bay region indicate that a senior military official identified as Adan Borow was killed in an Al-Shabaab armed raid.
- June 10. Al-Shabaab militant group claimed the killing of two SNA soldiers traveling near Warmaxan in Lower Shabelle with a motorcycle and seizing two rifles after a surprise attack on the road. Most of the route along the Afgooye-Warmaxan highway is targeted by Al-Qaeda aligned militants.
- June 11. At least 3 people reportedly killed and 5 others injured after gun battle in Elwak town in Somalia’s Gedo region. Initial reports indicate that fighting erupted after Al-Shabaab fighters attacked Jubaland troops base in the border town.
- June 11. At least one person killed and ten others injured in a grenade bomb attack on a café shop in Kismayo town, about 500km south of the capital, Mogadishu.
Tactics and Targets
Al-Shabaab continue to fight government forces and AMISOM troops in an effort to expel them and easily topple the Federal Government of Somalia. The group also target police, journalists, peace activists, international aid workers, businesses, diplomats, and other civilians.
Driven by Salafi ideology, militants have directed violence towards so-called “enemies of Islam” including Somalia’s Christians and Sufi Muslims have not been spared either.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track Al-Shabaab activity in East Africa and the group’s increased operations highlight some important indications, including its guerrilla warfare tactic inside and outside Somalia, which gives it a significant level of maneuverability stamping it continued capability.
The militant group has especially made use of car bombs, planting of landmines with an aim maximizing casualties. While the use of IEDs remain one of militant’s preferred attack type, ambush raids on security troop’s convoys are also increasing in Somalia.
Counterterrorism assets to take precaution by enhancing surveillance in the regions, towns and villages mapped with repeat attacks. Change of daily routines on patrol teams also advisable to minimize the frequent targeted ambushes and landmine attacks on MSRs.
There is notable surge of militant’s activities in Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions of Somalia, where security troops remain the primary targets. Vegetation and regions’ geography favoring militant’s in mounting guerilla ambushes and IED assaults on security forces.
Continued Capacity
Al-Shabaab remains the most lethal Al-Qaeda affiliate in African continent despite military interventions and targeting. The militant group headquartered in Jilib, Somalia over the years has suffered immense casualties from multiple large-scale targeting offensives from both local and foreign troops.
Despite concerted military operations and airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab’s operational areas, the group has not been degraded rather continues to stage attacks, proving itself capable of both geographic extension besides capacity to mount attacks against hard targets, particularly SNA and foreign forces.
Events recorded prove that Al-Shabaab will continue to strike against the forces targeting it. Over the past few months, the trends have shown of repeat attacks especially on army bases in Somalia. Military strikes against Al-Shabaab have not prevented the group from carrying out attacks on both hard targets and soft targets. The trends replicated shows that, in fact the rates of targeting the group and the group’s attacks tend to rise and fall in tandem.
Conclusion
Al-Shabaab is a prime lesson in the Al-Qaeda network’s persistent resiliency. The militant group has suffered leadership losses, loss of territory and revenue; and the attrition of its foot soldiers, but keeps on fighting and escalating and expanding its operations.
With no doubt, Al-Shabaab will remain a formidable force and threat inside Somalia and by extension to the neighboring countries. The militant group possesses its own dynamics and has proven adaptable, slipping away as dragnets close in. The East African countries need to be equally quick on their feet, fine-tuning counter insurgency measures (COIN) while crafting political and economic strategies that will weaken militancy’s appeal.
Addressing this threat requires redoubling regional and international endeavors, strengthen the weak institutions in Somalia, and intensifying regional and international cooperation to combat the group, its sympathizers, besides clashing its networks.
Insightful analysis regarding AS threats in regional stability, as Safety and Security specialist working in Somalia as a humanitarianism, this analysis captured my attention. Thank you so much.