Islamic State’s two provinces in Somalia and Central Africa have continually conducted attacks against civilian and security targets. While the attacks still follow the same MO that each group has carved out in the three countries; Somalia, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the groups appear to be copying from each other with the shootings, beheadings, and looting being reoccurring.
In Mozambique, ISCAP has downshifted from the large-scale attacks and temporary occupation of towns to more scattered attacks in various locations of the Restive Cabo Delgado province. The group still prefers beheading as an homage to ancient Islam practices as well as looting to furnish its ever-growing membership with supplies. Medical supplies have become a coveted commodity by the group as they continue to suffer grave injuries from CT efforts by Mozambican military and paramilitary groups.
In DRC, ADF insurgents continue to launch attacks on the Christian population as well as the military who they have dubbed interventionists. The insurgents attack villages killing residents with knives and guns and often engage the troops deployed in the North Kivu Province to curb the growing threat of the ISIS-affiliated militants. Unlike in Mozambique where the attacks appear to be indiscriminate in the Beni region the militants attack the majority Christian populace.
ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (5th June – 12th June)
Mozambique
- 5th June- ISCAP insurgents attacked Imbada in Meluco District beheaded three civilians and looted for supplies after which they left.
- 5th June- the terrorists beheaded one person and indiscriminately fired at refugees at ADPP Junction in Quissanga District who were returning to Macomia.
- 5th June- two fishermen were killed in Ulo who were getting to their boat by ISCAP terrorists.
- 5th June- militants kidnapped girls drawing water from a well in Nabubussi neighborhood of Mocimboa da Praia
Somalia
- 8th June- Abnaa Ul Calipha terrorists attacks and wounded three police officers who were on foot patrol in Bakara Market in Mogadishu
DRC
- 5th June- in two separate attacks in Loselose, Beni region ADF militants attacked and killed 7 Christians and 6 Congolese soldiers.
Analysis
The weekly statistics indicate that while the attacks seem to have subsided in size and occurrence in all the countries, the low-scale attacks still hold significance to the group’s popularity and presence. The groups have shown a consistent trend that includes massive scale attacks followed by tactic withdrawals evidenced by seeming to downshift in attacks that are followed a massive surge in violent attacks. Therefore, while the groups appear to have cooled down in attacks as compared to May, that should not be mistaken for a weakened group but instead as incubation of future attacks.
The kidnapping of girls by ISCAP in Mozambique is an indicator of a growing number of recruits that need caregiving either wounded in battles or fighters needing wives and caretakers in the encampments. Groups such as Boko Haram have been known to kidnap girls who are then sent to the camps to be married to the fighters as well as take care of wounded militants.
In DRC, the attacks were previously in a guerrilla-style and swift a trend that is shifting to evidence confidence and machismo of the group. Beni region offers the group a geographical advantage because the group has lived in the forests for many years giving them an edge against the government soldiers and other peacekeepers. The group is able to ambush the civilians and troops and retreat to the forest with a few casualties facilitated by the fact that the area is facing a wide range of humanitarian crises including IDPs and an Ebola outbreak.
Conclusion
In the aftermath of the attacks, especially in Mozambique they have created a huge humanitarian crisis in a country that was already struggling. Despite the government’s claims to have won the battle at Macomia, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) announced on 5th June that it is withdrawing from the town as a result of the three-day attack. The organization did the same thing with its operation in Mocimboa da Praia after the insurgent occupation there in March, and both cases serve as votes of no confidence in the government’s ability to protect aid workers.
In Somalia and DRC local troops and peacekeepers have been tightening the noose on the operations of the terror groups which has resulted in a clear downshift of attacks and casualties as compared to the same period last week. Rapid government response and stringent COIN measures and strategies have impacted the magnitude of attacks by the militants as evidenced by the herein mentioned casualty report.
The ISIS threat is not an individual nation threat as it is documented how terror organizations amerce power and capabilities to conduct cross-border attacks as is the case of al Shabaab and East African nations. Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed. While military solutions are the most used methods local players and authorities should explore other socio-economic and political solutions to radicalization to ensure that military action does not further isolate local communities and inspire radicalization and sprouting of new cells in the restive regions of the respective countries.
