In the past recent months, the preying eyes of the world fell on Nairobi once again, not for terror attacks and protests staged by the opposition, but for the ‘gone’ oil pipeline construction deal with Uganda besides the updating of its oil reserves to an estimated 1.6billion barrels. In short, Uganda energy ministry found construction of Uganda-Tanzanian oil pipeline cheaper.

• Rwanda’s transport ministry found the construction of a standard gauge railway through Tanzania as both affordable and shorter in distance (obviously, a rail through Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya is significantly longer and expensive to construct).
• Up north, Ethiopia considered a Djibouti SGR and road system quite realizable for two reasons, costs and distance to the coast.
• South Sudan which is yet to stabilize is still mulling an interconnection to Djibouti through Ethiopia.

In the wake of these events, Kenya’s dominance in the East African region was viewed skeptically. These events were interpreted as indicators of a decline in both geostrategic and geopolitical value of the Republic of Kenya. These perceptions are factored by Kenya’s dominant power in the East African federation, which includes Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, and Burundi, besides Kenya itself. Nairobi has remained as the gateway to the East Africa, besides the regional export and financial hub.

However, the view, that this dominance is waning, is literary ‘analysts knee jerk reactions’ to these past events.

Tullow announced new oil finds in Kenya, early May 2016, indicating that the oil fields have approximately 1.6billion barrels of Kenyan crude. This, at peak production, fiscal revenues would be about $9 billion a year (paywall), or 16% of Kenya’s GDP. Kenya’s GDP is so far approximately 43% of the East African region. Nairobi is harnessing commodity trading to spur economic growth. The objective is to make commodities part of the economic growth drivers. The country has managed to increase power generation. This has significantly cut cost of production in the manufacturing industry besides attracting investors. Massive infrastructures that terminate at the borders with its neighbors are ongoing. This economic outlook doesn’t signal a decline of a regional power, it’s a renaissance.

Kenya is the most powerful exporter and importer in the East African region, thus provides a much needed regional business environment that factors growth of opportunities for trade.  Kenya’s imports from Tanzania were valued at KES1.5.58 billion in 2011 (Kenya Export Promotion Council).  This is an edge none of the members of the region have including Dar. Tanzania’s geopolitical strategy is to get a share of the expansive transportation network into the Great Lakes region of Africa. This makes Tanzania, Kenya’s rival in the federation. Unfortunately, TZ lacks the geo-strategic advantage that Kenya has. Kenya has developed financial systems, open and robust markets, and already significantly ahead besides a massive economic growth buoyed by prospects of low power costs, commodities, and crude sales in the short and long-term.

Tanzania is still stuck in the unprofitable SADC. SADC (Southern African Development Community) is a regional organization consisting of 14 Member Countries (Angola, Botswana, Congo (DR), Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe). Seychelles is still in the process of ratifying the SADC Treaty. South Africa, Angola, and Namibia have stronger bilateral ties, with South African imports finding vast markets in Kenya. Tanzania is yet to resolve its borderline dispute with Malawi. The economies in Malawi, Burundi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe aren’t lucrative.

Uganda remains Kenya's largest export partner besides security. The relationship between Kampala and Nairobi is only getting better as intermodal transport infrastructure gets better, thus cutting costs and subsequently increasing levels of trade. Rwanda is focused on economic growth hence views Nairobi as a key trading and regional growth partner. South Sudan will opt Kenya due to shorter SGR, Crude pipeline, and roads to its capital and hub Juba. Ethiopia is vast and the opportunities of new markets for its exports in Northern Kenya cannot be ignored whatsoever.

The outlook for Kenya is not dark rather brighter. Economists argue that the ‘economy is powerful than military power’, however, Kenya seeks to balance both. A robust economy needs an equally powerful defense and deterrent capability. It is obvious, Kenya is positioning itself to become a regional economic hub, and since with a robust and growing economy, military power becomes an aspect of both geopolitical and geostrategic relevance.