Highlights
- ON Wednesday 26th August 2015, South Sudan President Salva Kiir signed the peace deal he had earlier refuted.
- Kiir on 17th August failed to sign the peace deal while his opponent leading the opposition Riek Machar appended his signature.
- The United Nations had warned that if Kiir proved more impossible, severe measures would be implemented upon him including sanctions.
Analysis
OSINT sources have expressed their reservations for success of the South Sudan peace deal signed by the country’s opposing forces to end the 20 month civil crisis that has crippled the country.
Intelligence analysis on its part concludes a possibility of Kiir signing the peace deal under intense pressure both from the South Sudan people and the regional and international bodies. The United Nations had warned that if Kiir failed to sign the peace deal by Wednesday 26th August 2015 severe measures would be implemented upon him including sanctions and travel bans.
Two possibilities are clear in shaping the future of South Sudan.
The possibilities of the peace deal failing curves a significant niche especially if it is not sustained. The terms of the deal speak volumes. Kiir and Machar, the two who are former sworn enemies have to work together as the deal will see to Machar taking back his position in government as the vice president.
However, prudence expectation has it that the two put behind their differences for the sake of civilians who have undergone the worst ever crisis characterized with massive deaths and evictions. The work of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should not end at the signing of the peace deal but in ensuring that its terms are adhered to. Regional leaders will also work to strengthen peace in South Sudan.
Also of concern is the issue of deviant rebels. Some of the top commanders split from Machar, and they say the peace deal means nothing to them. Intelligence analysis has it the sworn rebels will probably not stop fighting until the interim government strikes a balance with them.
