Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of July 29th – August 7th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in the East African nation of Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Even as target in both countries become elusive citing coronavirus protocols advocating against large gathering, the militants are still conducting attacks especially on hard targets. Al-Shabaab has exploited the situation to intensify attacks from across a number of theaters in Somalia.

Notably, Al-Shabaab attacks remain persistent in central and southern regions of Somalia which records at least an attack on daily basis.  In Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab increased attacks targeting AMISOM operated bases in Hoosingo, Tabda and Abdi Birole Forward Operating Bases though barely casualties have been reported as the militants have been firing from a distance. This frequency on attempted attacks on AMISOM bases in Lower Juba should be a wakeup call to counterterrorism assets to come up with a strategy on countering the enemy.

In the past one week, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least ten attacks in Somalia and one in Konton, Wajir, NEP Kenya.

Its notable Al-Shabaab conduct many attacks from Fridays and over the weekends (Saturday and Sunday). Last weekend the militants group concentrated its efforts on the recently Eid al Adha celebrations. The militant group took charge of the celebrations from across towns and localities of southern and central Somalia , addressing large gatherings around the fields where they had gathered, hoisting their traditional black flags, which are often mounted in their controlled territories, were also sighted, an indication that the group was in a friendly ground.

Recently Claimed Attacks (July 28^th – August 4^th)

• On July 29^th, at 1850hrs Al-Shabaab attempted probing TABDA FOB in Lower Juba from general direction of West with AK 47 and PKM in a brief raid that lasted less than a minute that was successfully repulsed.
• On July 31^st, at about 1843 hrs Al-Shabaab militants attempted another raid on Bilis Qooqani (BQ) FOB using AK 47 rifles from the general NE side but were unsuccessful.
• On August 2^nd, Al-Shabaab militants reportedly hurled a grenade into the home of the acting district commissioner Mohamed Abdullahi Omar (Koosto) in Wanlaweyn district, Lower Shabelle region on Sunday evening. The militants executed him on claims that he spied for US-trained special forces. Five other people were also wounded in the attack.
• On August 3^rd, Reports indicate that an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated in the Hamar Jabjab District of Mogadishu at approximately 13:45 local time on Monday noon. The attack reportedly occurred in the vicinity of busy Lul Yamani restaurant. Local police reports indicate that two security guards were killed after the attacker detonated his explosive in a martyrdom operation.
• On August 3^rd, Al-Shabaab attempted to stage an attack on TABDA Defense Post using AK 47 rifles from general direction of West but was successfully repelled.
• On August 3^rd, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on Kenyan security FOB in Konton, Wajir NEP was repulsed. A team of about 7Al-Shabaab militants claimed attack on this FOB from the direction of N about 500M from the FOB using PKM, AK47 and RPG. No casualties or damage were caused.
• On August 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on SNA soldier using a remotely controlled explosive device (RCIED) in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed to two government soldiers, two civilians also wounded in the blast.
• On August 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing a former official of Jubaland administration identified as Mohamed Bile. The Al-Qaeda aligned militants ambushed his house in Qoqani area of Lower Juba killing him and abducting two of his bodyguards.
• On August 5^th, Al-Shabaab launched an early morning attack on a military base on the outskirts of Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants staged an ambush on a military base operated by SNA in Daynunay, about 25kilometers southwest from Baidoa town. One government soldier identified as Yusuf Boorow was killed and three others wounded. Military vehicle also destroyed.      

Insight/Conclusion

Though the militants continue mounting attacks targeting on local and allied partner forces, its notable the group’s capability to stage spectacular attacks have significantly diminished. For example, the last time the militants successfully ran over a military camp was in February this year in Lower Shebelle where they managed to attack El-Salini military base, killing at least 25 military officers besides wounding several others. This notwithstanding, these low intensity attacks witnessed from across a number of theaters should not be taken lightly.

It’s also notable, the militant’s persistent attacks remain frequent on Somali government bases and AMISOM FOBs in southern and central Somalia. Latest claim from Al-Shabaab indicate that a series of ambush attacks on SNA in Bay region had killed at least 14 government soldiers, including senior officials. The commander of the 8th Battalion of the 60th Division of the Somali National Army, General Mohamed Ishaq Hassan, was among those killed in the fighting. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing of Abdi Aziz, the deputy commander of the 8th Battalion of the Somali National Army.

Another notable concern is of the increased number of conferences sponsored by Al-Shabaab. In South Western State of Somalia, known locally as Koofur Orsi, many armed Clansmen from the Luwaay clan attended an Al-Shabab sponsored conference where allegedly they pledged allegiance to the Amir of Al-Shabaab. The photos of these conferences are thereafter promoted through various Al-Shabaab media platforms. Citing clan politics are pivotal in the war-torn Somalia, these are indicators that Al-Shabaab is trying to lure youth, women and even elderly men to support their ideologies besides justifying its war against the Federal Government of Somalia and its allied partners.

The militant group has also organized several conferences attended by both male and female youths especially in Jilib, Middle Juba, the group’s defacto headquarters. These celebrations witnessed and such conferences should be of utmost concerns to counterterrorism actors and the COIN strategies laid forth. The militants undoubtedly exploiting these celebrations and sponsored conferences to preach to locals against collaborating with security troops, especially foreign troops, describing them as invaders. These yearly celebrations have a huge significance as they offer Al-Shabaab fertile grounds for recruitment beside advocating its radical ideologies.

The technical publication of the photos by Al-Shabaab is a very strategic propaganda move that could very easily excite disgruntled youth and sympathisers into their folds, further piling pressure on military forces in Somalia. The militant’s group’s ultimate goals of fighting and toppling the supported Federal Government of Somalia and establishing a strict sharia in the horn of Afica nation remains unchanged. As the pressure continue to mount on Somali Army forces that has not been able to secure fluid swathes of Somalia that have been under the militants, allied partners AMISOM and US) should rethink their stand on handing over the security operations to SNA troops in 2021 citing the significant gains made could possibly be averted.