Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 24th July- 7th August 2020

The Islamic State provinces in Central and East Africa continue with their violent campaigns in the countries they operate in: Mozambique, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In Mozambique, CT campaign by government forces and allied paramilitary forces have rendered ISCAP less active as opposed to previous violent and bloody crusades observed in the past months. However, while there appears to be a clear down-surge in attacks, the militants appear to have adopted different attack strategies characterized by increased looting and kidnappings of women and young school girls.

In DRC, ISCAP has continued its violent campaigns in the restive Beni territory alongside other armed groups like CODECO. ADF which has continued to assert itself in the Beni territory continues to conduct attacks with crude weapons like machetes. However, in recent weeks the group has stepped up its attacks to indiscriminate killings of civilians including women and children.

In Somalia, the group has remained docile especially after the recent joint operations between Puntland and US forces that led to the death of a senior commander of Pakistani descent killed towards the end of July. However, the group continues its seemingly calculated attacks against police and especially security checkpoints in Mogadishu and its neighborhoods.  

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (24th July- 7^th August)

Mozambique

• 24^th July- ISCAP insurgents arrive in Mucojo in Macomia attacked the villagers killing 2 people, burned down homes, and kidnapped several women in a growing string of kidnappings and girls.
• 25^th July- two people were killed by ISCAP insurgents in the village of Novo Cabo Delgado in Macomia district.
• 25^th July- insurgent attacked Manica in Macomia district after a temporary occupation for three days from the 23^rd of July. The kidnapped six women burned houses and looted food and supplies.
• 26^th July- armed militants attacked the village of Novo Kabo in Litimanda District where they killed 4 villagers and burned down houses in the village.
• 29^th July- an attack was conducted by ISCAP militants in the Milamba neighborhood in Nabubusse in Mocimboa da Praia.
• 30^th July- ISCAP militants attacked Litandacua in Macomia district in Cabo Delgado. The attack occurred at around 2100hrs and the terrorists looted food and supplies as well as burned down houses.
• 07^th August- ISCAP claims an attack on two army bases in Mocimboa da Praia, killing/wounding at least 50 military personnel.

The Democratic Republic of Congo

• 24^th July- ADF terrorists attacked a home killing 3 people; (man, his wife, and children) in Kikuka village in the Banande-Kainama group in the Beni territory. The victims were killed with crude weapons as is the MO of ADF.
• 29^th July- Congolesemilitary barracks were breached by the ISCAP insurgents an attack that left 4 soldiers dead and several others wounded. The attack that occurred in Beni territory in North Kivu also led to the seizure of weapons and ammo by the terrorists.
• 29^th July- 1 soldier was killed and several others injured in clashes between the Congolese military and ISCAP terrorists in Beni
• 29^th July- 6 people were killed in Mutido village located in Kitamba locality in the Banande-Kainama group in Beni. Most of the victims were beheaded by the ADF militants.
• 30^th July- ISCAP ambushed Congolese soldiers in Beni territory killing one soldier and injuring several others, looting food and weapons.

Somalia

• 24^th July- ISS militants hauled grenades at a police checkpoint in Bakara Market in Mogadishu. The attack left 4 policemen dead and several others injured.
• 30^th July- Onepolice officer was killed and two others were injured following a grenade attack by ISS terrorists. The attack occurred after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Tawfiq neighborhood in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

CT operations against ISCAP and Abnaa ul Calipha

• 30^th July– at least 19 terrorists were killed in Anga and Nguri in Quissanga districts, Cabo Delgado in CI operations by Mozambican and allied forces. 4 canoes were destroyed, they were used for transport as well as fishing by the insurgents.
• 3^rd August– 5 terrorists were killed in Mocimboa da Praia by government troops. A terrorist observation post (TOP) in Mbau was destroyed, military and police uniforms, communication devices, and cellphones were recovered.
• 5^th August- 12 ISCAP terrorists were killed in Quissanga district a TOP was destroyed that led to camps referred to as Syria 1 &2.

Insights and Threat Matrix

In DRC and Mozambique, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, run out civilians from their homes, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack. In Mozambique especially, the group has an active recce system that is backed by TOPs that are used to give the militants an added advantage as they can push assaults and protect their camps.

In Mozambique, thousands of people have fled their homes in these districts. Since March, the number of internally displaced persons in Cabo Delgado has doubled, reaching 250,000 in July. The figures are projected to be higher seeing as residents have cited excessive force use and brutality by the military has been a major contributor for a huge percent of IDPs. Abductions have continued rapidly since late June and with the major targets being women and girls. Escapees have reported that the insurgent camps were large and run patriarchally, with women assigned to certain men and expected to follow orders from the men. They also reported that men and boys in the camp were being given military training and were closely monitored to prevent desertion.

The prevalence of kidnappings might suggest that the insurgency is having a difficult time with voluntary recruitment. This could be credited to the recent government response and injuries thus dampening the morale of the jihadists. It is also clear that the group is expanding with membership growing both voluntarily and through abductions which means in a typical terror organization, the men ought to be taken care of, tended upon after battles as well conjugal benefits typically promised during the recruitment drive. The arrests in South Africa could motivate lone attacks in the region and especially the southern regions in Mozambique where there is relative unrest and dissatisfaction with the government.

In a recent communique, ISIS threatened retaliation for any actions by the South African troops in Cabo Delgado in a release that indicated that the group has sleeper cells in SA. Five suspects were arrested in South Africa; a clear indicator that ISCAP poses a greater threat than previously anticipated in the South and Central Africa and a swift and collective response ought to be used to ensure that the group doesn’t become cross-national as well as inspire lone-wolf attacks in the neighboring nations.

On the other hand, in Somalia, the group is consistently targeting the police and other security forces in the capital, Mogadishu, and seemingly deviating from assassinations to include grenades and other improvised explosive devices. The attacks on security checkpoints can be viewed as the group’s way of remaining relevant in the face of a seemingly reinvigorated al Shabaab. The group has been met with a strong CT campaign especially in Puntland where the group is headquartered. In Somalia, especially ion Puntland where ISS is headquartered, there have been active CT campaigns by the Puntland forces with aerial bombardments from the US Africa command. (AFRICOM).

In Somalia, while the group still appears to lay low and make calculated attacks and targeted assassinations. It is crucial to note that the group has been training, and photos of the training camps indicate that the group has been asserting itself and amercing recruits and weapons that could quite possibly be used to large scale attacks in the new future. Photos have been released of the group training and celebrating the recent Eid al Adha holiday that shows a group that is far from defeated. The use of grenades and small cells to attack enables them to get to their target locations without much detection or suspicion from security assets and now with the steady resumption of suicide and martyrdom missions, more fatalities cannot be ruled out.

In DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. The same is reinforced by the target-period statistics that indicate a concentration of attacks on the security forces with just one attack on civilians recorded. ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. The group also appears to be exploiting the growing tensions and violence in Beni and Ituri by other armed groups like CODECO to stretch the resources of the military and UN peacekeepers which allows them to gather the necessary supplies, weapons, and ammo to train the forest.