Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of July 17th – July 24th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activities continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. There has been a significant rise in Al-Shabaab attacks from across the regions of Somalia and beyond. The militants’ group is exploiting security gaps caused by the surging coronavirus pandemic to relaunch and invigorate its rural insurgency in Somalia and Kenya.

In the past one week, Al-Shabaab conducted a number of successful attacks in theater. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab recorded at least 16 attacks and in Kenya, Garissa county one attack. The militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions (Lower Shabelle, Bay, Hiran and capital Mogadishu) with more than half f these attacks targeted against Somali and AMISOM troops.

Somali Government officials and civilians have also been targeted in Al-Shabaab attacks. Approximately 45% of attacks so far (2020) have been directed on soft targets, that is; the civilians and government officials.

Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate persistently and constantly its ability to attack heavily fortified facilities including military bases and army convoys from across Somalia regions and her neighbor, Kenya.

Recently Claimed Attacks (July 17^th – July 24^th)

• On July 17^th, Fierce clashes erupted in Bula Burde town, in Hiran region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab stormed a Somali National Army (SNA) military base in the town. Casualties from both sides reported as small and heavy weaponry was used in the fight.
• On July 17^th, Heavy IED explosion hit an AMISOM troop’s convoy travelling in the outskirts of Qoryoley town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. The Islamists Al-Shabaab through their pro-media claimed responsibility of the attack and said it destroyed one armored vehicle.
• On July 17^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted a Somali Government intelligence officer in Bula Burde town, in Hiran region of central Somalia. Somali military sources indicate that Al-Shabaab shot and killed an intelligence officer identified as Farah Omar and wounded another.
• On July 18^th, Deputy of Somali Security Minister, Abdinasir Said Muse survives an assassination attempt after massive roadside bomb targeted his vehicle. The explosion that occurred near Taleh junction in the Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, killed one of his bodyguards and three other people.
• On July 18^th, three people were injured following mortar shell attack in Janaale town of Lower Shabelle. The indiscriminate shelling perpetuated by Al-Shabaab militants hit residential houses in the town injuring three civilians.
• On July 18^th, AMISOM’s Ethiopian troops (ENDF) foiled an Al-Shabaab attack in their Halgan military base in Hiran region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate the militants stormed AMISOM-ENDF base in Halgan at around 03.00 am local time from different directions. Firefight ensued with casualties being reported from both sides.
• On July 18^th, Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack in the port Marka town of southern Lower Shabelle, located approximately 109 kilometers to the southwest of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab targeted SNA soldiers in a grenade attack at their military base in Marka, injuring three soldiers.
• On July 19^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked AMISOM troop’s convoy with an IED explosion in the outskirts of Burane town in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack and said its fighters killed two Burundian soldiers.
• On July 20^th, At least one Somali government soldier killed, two others wounded in a roadside bomb explosion in Burhakaba town, Bay region of southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the deadly explosion through its media.
• On July 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple attacks in Howlwadag district of Mogadishu injuring at least one Somali police officer.
• On July 22^nd, the second IED explosion happened in Howlwadag near Daalo headquarters, where Somali police are stationed injuring at least four Somali police officers.
• On July 22^nd, A suicide bomber detonated at a security checkpoint in Wardhigley district of Banadir region of Somalia killing at least two Somali police officers and wounding several others.
• On July 22^nd, Local sources reported of multiple Al-Shabaab separate attacks in Karaan, Daynile and Yaqshid districts of Mogadishu. Sources added that RPGs & PKMs targeted Somali police stations resulting in casualties among the government police officers.
• On July 22^nd, Al-Shabaab raided SNA who were holding a small gathering in the town of Janale, Lower Shabelle, southern Somalia. Reports indicate that, the suicide raid resulted to the death of two officers and three others wounded.
• On July 23^rd, Yaqshid district commissioner Muse Gesey targeted in a Roadside bomb. Initial reports indicate that the district commissioner was travelling between Fagah and San’aa junctions in northern of the capital Mogadishu.  He survived the attack but his vehicle was damaged.
• On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Rural Border Patrol Unit (RBPU) in Yumbis, Garissa county northeastern Kenya. Initial reports indicate that conducted an ambush attack on the RBPU station with RPGs and PKMs. Al-Shabaab pro-media claimed their fighters killed three officers and injured others. A Safaricom BTS mast was also vandalized by the Islamist militants. The response security team also narrowly survived after their vehicle hit a landmine.
•  On July 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack on Somali national army base in Zabid town, in the outskirts of Afgooye, Lower Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that the Islamist militants staged an ambush attack on the SNA base in Zabid from different directions. Attack was repulsed with casualties from both sides being reported.

Assessment/Observations

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab militant group remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The uptick in the group’s activities continues to be recorded revealing that the region has become a soft flank for militant’s activity in East Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

Al-Shabaab continue to exploit the advantage of thicket vegetation and geography of these regions to launch guerilla ambushes and IEDs along the major routes used by both local and foreign troops. Targeted assassinations and suicide missions steadily resuming in the capital Mogadishu.

Explosions and assassinations targeting federal government soldiers and other government officials have been on the rise in Banadir region in recent days, with Somali police dealing a huge blow in a number of Mogadishu districts. The use of IEDs, roadside bombs and Landmines continue to dominate as militant’s preferred attack types.

However, its notable of the resumption of suicide-martyrdom missions by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Suicide missions targeted at military convoys and military bases could be lethal. It’s also notable of Al-Shabaab targeting high-ranking security officials in Somalia. Last week (midweek) Al-Shabaab suicide bomber targeted the convoy of Somalia Chief of Defense Forces, General Odawa Yusuf Rage near Mogadishu’s Tarabunka junction.  Barely three days after, the militants in a targeted mission attempted to assassinate Deputy of Somali Security Minister, Abdinasir Said Muse near Taleh junction in Mogadishu’s Hodan district.

In the war-torn Somalia, the effects of coronavirus are heightened by the continuous militants’ insurgency. While Al-Shabaab refused to embrace UN-Secretary General’s appeal for a global ceasefire, the militant group instead through propaganda blamed the foreign troops for importing the disease further hindering humanitarian action and containment of the coronavirus.  The propaganda deliberately disrupted aid delivery and in turn, the Islamist Al-Shabaab capitalized on anti-government resentment to boost on its recruitment and win legitimacy.

In northeastern Kenyan counties, the Somali-based militants strategically continue to target critical infrastructures, especially telecommunication BTS masts, in a move that geared towards paralyzing communication within the region, hence giving them ample time to accomplish their attack missions.

Conclusion

Joint counterterrorism operations by local and foreign military assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in both central and southern Somalia regions. Concerted CT-operations should continue in the mapped regions in order to disrupt the militants re-establishing new swathes in Somalia. In Kenya, CT-actor also to remain vigilant as increased militant’s movement continue to be reported closer to border in search of water and other supplies by FITs.

A recent UN report finds that outside of Syria, Iraq and other conflict zones on the short-term indicate that, terror threat has fallen as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, noting that restrictions on international travel significantly constrain terrorist mobility, networking and finance-related activity and that targets have become more elusive because of the discouragement of public gatherings.

However, the report warns that Islamist militant groupings managed to push a narrative and propaganda about the disease in an effort to capture audience during the lockdown and if they have successfully used this for planning and recruitment purposes, it is possible that the easing of restrictions in non-conflict zones will see a spike in attacks once targets become available again. This will also be a common scenario in East Africa.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend has not changed. Its not getting any better and the curve is trending in upward trajectory, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the mapped regions of Somalia.