Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of August 21st – August 28th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab an affiliate of Al-Qaeda operating in East Africa region continue to record increased successful attacks from across regions of Somalia and its neighbor Kenya. The tempo of Al-Shabaab’s military operations in in the Horn of Africa Somalia has steadily increased and widely been promoted by the group’s various propaganda channels. The militant group has showcased in videos and infographics its ability to consistently strike on well-fortified military base defended by local army and foreign troops. Senior military and government officials also remain prime targets of Al-Shabaab though civilian casualties also continue to be caught in the enemy crossfire.

Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curtailing its activity and strike power. Concerted counter-terrorism efforts have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the region; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling substantial swathes of Somali territory.

Threat and attack trends matrix consistently indicate of more repeat attacks in Somalia regions. The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases, convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country.

Al-Shabaab has boosted its military presence in regions where geography and economic activities favors them and hence, they are persistently and repeatedly fighting to maintain control. Al-Shabaab main operational areas remains in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions, Middle Shabelle, Mogadishu districts.

In the past one week (seven days) the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab has claimed more than ten attacks all in Somalia as recorded below. No attack has so far reported on Kenya frontier counties/regions which is also area of interest for the Islamist militants. That notwithstanding, the Kenyan CT-assets should remain vigilant, increase on patrols, scouts around the perimeters of their defense posts as well as capitalize on surveillance to detect any possible enemy movements close to the country’s volatile border with Somalia. The border wall construction also should be encouraged to bar militants from easily crossing over to Kenyan side.

Recently Claimed Attacks (August 21^st – August 25^th)

• On August 21^st, an attempted attack on AMISOM base in the Jubba regions by Al-Shabaab militants was successfully repulsed in Abdalla Birole, about 35 km west of Kismayo, the capital of the Lower Jubba region. A number of militants were killed and their small weapons including AK47 rifles recovered.
• On August 21^st, a fierce clash erupted in Bardhere town in Gedo region after the Islamist militants attempted an ambush raid on a base operated by Somali forces. The militants fled into the thicket after being overpowered. A number of them killed while several fled with gun woumds.
• On August 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush attack on AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Halgan, Hiran region of Somalia. The militants have persistently targeted this Forward Operating Base (FOB) severally.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have publicly executed four men in Gedo region of Somalia on accusation of spying for Somalia government, US and AMISOM.
• On August 23^rd, Yaqshid District Commissioner Muse Gesey survives a bomb attack in Mogadishu’s Abdulaziz distict. Initial reports indicate that the explosion left at least two dead and three others wounded. Muse escaped another attack claimed by Al-Shabaab some weeks ago.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have stormed an AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in the outskirts of Marka town, area 60 in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed another separate ambush attack on SNA base in Barire area of Lower Shabelle.
• On August 23^rd, At least two people were killed and several others wounded after an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded in Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that the explosion occurred at the entrance of a busy market. It’s possible a government military base located adjacent to the market was the likely target.
• On August 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on SNA troops in Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that one official of the South West Administration was wounded alongside two of his body guards in a landmine explosion.
• On August 24^th, US military confirmed that six Al-Shabaab militants were killed, 3 others wounded in a drone strike. The airstrike came when Somalia and US forces came under attack by Al-Shabaab operatives in Daru Salam vicinity of Lower Shabelle region.
• On August 25^th, A clan elder is reported to have been shot and killed in Wadajir district of Mogadishu on Tuesday morning by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen. The elder whose name has been released as Sheikh Ali Mohamed Osman was shot by armed assailant with AK47 several times in the head near his shop.

Latest CT – Interventions

As the group escalated attacks in various towns, localities and broadly in regions of Somalia, especially, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Mogadishu, Bay and Hiran regions. The militant’s media wing continues to champion the group’s agenda by hurriedly amplifying the group’s successes in theater, counterterrorism operators have also mounted formidable pressure in the Islamist militants curtailing their operations significantly.

In the past one week, the militant group has dealt significant blows as the CT – operators have been able to conduct a number of successful counter raids on Al-Shabaab’s positions and hideouts; among them the killing of a bomb maker near southwestern town of Kurtunwarey, killing of three Al-Shabaab militants in El-Gellow, Middle Shabelle, Puntland forces killing 10 Al-Shabaab militants  in the outskirts of Bosaso town in the mountainous northern part of Bari region as well as killing of another senior member in Daru-Salam area in Lower Shabelle region.

The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) also confirmed that an airstrike conducted against Al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Saakow, Middle Juba region of Somalia on Tuesday, August 25, targeted a senior Al-Shabaab commander, and one militant was killed in the strike. AFRICOM assessed that no civilians were killed or injured in the strike.

Assessments/Observations and Insights

The Islamist militant group has been waging an insurgency obstinately in the Horn of Africa country for about 14 years now. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.

Its notable of militant’s upscaled IEDs, SVBIEDs and roadsides attacks especially in the capital Mogadishu which has recorded over dozen attacks in recent days with rising fatalities. Targeted assassinations on key government officials as well as execution of civilians perceived as spies remains a norm in the capital Mogadishu.

Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The uptick in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

The group has perfected its propaganda arm. By claim attacks and publish them via the group’s media, the group aims at strengthening its local popular base by attracting more sympathizers in a manner that translates into increased activity at the local and regional levels, and ultimately boosts its presence and influence.

There is a possibility that Al-Shabaab could expand its attacks and terrorist operations in Somalia and escalate terrorist attacks against AMISOM troops with the aim of accelerating their withdrawal from Somalia and filling the void this will increase its area of control.

Attacks on Kenya usually attracts local and international headlines and that why Al-Shabaab will persistently keep on attempting to attacks Kenyan patrol teams, defense posts especially in upper and lower northeastern prefectures. The militant group which continually justifies attacking Kenya on retaliatory of its forces in Somalia relentlessly seeks to invite broader media coverage given the fact that Kenya is a major hub for diplomacy, tourism and business in Africa. In addition, Kenya hosts a number of international organizations, and is therefore a major target for the group to hit interests linked to Western countries in the region and that why Kenyan counterterrorism machineries/assets must remain on high alert to counter, foil besides neutralize any possible threat.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track the Islamist militant activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of significant militant’s upsurge could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made if not decisively countered.