Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 13th -27th August 2020

In August, the Islamic State affiliates in Central Africa have recorded several attacks in the Restive North Kivu and Cabo Delgado Province in DRC. The attacks have left civilians and security officers dead, buildings razed to the ground, and thousands of people homeless and displaced from their villages and towns. The period referenced that while there haven’t been any significant in Mozambique the ISCAP in DRC has stepped their attacks especially in the vicinity of Oicha and the recently opened Mbau-Kamango road. The attacks signify the growing threat posed by the Islamic State with all three branches appearing to step up their attacks with the use of sophistication especially in DRC and frequency. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack. In the last two weeks in DRC, the group has been targeting farmers returning from their fields as well as road users on a road that was recently opened to facilitate the easy movement of troops and military equipment into the restive Beni territory.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, DRC, and Somalia (13^th -27^th August 2020)

Mozambique

• 13^th August– at least 40 refugees died after a boat they were traveling in was drowned by security officers in Nhongue Island as they escaped from the ISCAP incursion in MDP. Intelligence indicated that the troops shot at the boat despite the refugees trying to explain that they were fleeing the violence in MDP.
• 15^th August- fighting was reported between the troops deployed to recapture Mocimboa da Praia and the ISCAP insurgents holding the port town. No immediate casualties were reported and the town remains under the terrorists’ control.
• 20^th August- 2 civilians, a 50-year-old and her 12-year-old granddaughter who were refugees from MDP were killed by jihadists in Nawamba, Macomia town.

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 13^th Aug- 4 people were killed in the afternoon in Kitevya village, near Oicha which is the capital of Beni.
• 14^th Aug- 4 farmers were killed with crude weapons in the Mbau-Kamango axis in Beni. Several people were kidnapped.
• 16^th Aug- 8 people killed, 2 kidnapped and 1 seriously wounded in Mwenda village in the Rwenzori sector. The insurgents used machetes and looted food and medical supplies from the neighbourhood pharmacy.
• 15^th Aug- 2 Congolese troops injured in clashes between them and ISCAP militants in Kpolowu. Two terrorists were killed
• 18^th Aug- 18 people among them 1 soldier killed in an ambush by ISCAP on the Mbau-Kamango road. The attack was targeting road users of the road that was opened this year. 2 militants were also killed in the attack.
• 20^th Aug- 3 people killed in Matiba village located on Mbau-Kamango road as they returned from their fields.
• 22^nd Aug- 13 people killed in 2 villages- Matiba and Wikeno by ADF terrorists.
• 24^th Aug- 20 people were killed in attacks in 3 villages; Mapasana, Mayitike and Sayuni located 30km northwest of Beni City.
• 25^th Aug- 17 people were killed in Babila village located less than 10km from the previous string of attacks conducted this week.

Analysis and Insight

ISCAP in Mozambique conducted the most sophisticated and well-coordinated attack yet and appear to be employing a lot of ISIS-like tactics that have been out-maneuvering the government troops. The military who ran out of ammunition and battle supplies thus the tactical withdrawal, allowed the group to take over MDP and according to intelligence, ISCAP intends to keep the town and as such interfering with a major transit point into the restive province. The same has been reiterated by several unsuccessful attempts by the Mozambican troops to recapture MDP. Tanzania, which is located at least 100km from MDP urged people living near the Mozambican border on the Tanzania side to vacate their homes immediately so that the Tanzanian military could carry out counterterrorism operations in the area. While Tanzanian forces have been conducting operations in the area from as early as March, the recent stepped up operations are an indicator that the crisis in Cabo Delgado is worse than previously reported.

The 40th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Southern African Development Community passed without much progress on the question of regional intervention in Cabo Delgado. The official communique of the summit offered little indication that intervention will be forthcoming in the near future. This would deteriorate the situation which is already being worsened by growing accusations of human rights violations by the troops against the residents. This has further put a dampener on the government gains in the restive province as most citizens do not have faith in the police, military and the government who are yet to erect a foolproof way to civilians and terrorists in Cabo Delgado to avoid the arrests, torture and killing of the innocents.

In DRC the past fortnight the group has stepped up its attacks especially in the vicinity of Oicha and its environs that has led to the deaths of several dozens majority of them being farmers and innocent civilians. In the past week, the ADF has seemingly uncoordinated attacks in the villages along a road that has long served as a blind spot that has been exploited to attack the civilian and military population in Beni. The road was rehabilitated to facilitate the prompt delivery of military personnel and equipment especially in attacks by the ADF. The past week evidences that the threat posed by ISCAP in DRC is much greater than previously anticipated and that the relentless nature of the group makes them very dangerous and a swift CT strategy ought to be mounted to ensure that the previous military gains against them and the relationship between troops and civilians aren’t reversed.

Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed. According to intelligence out of DRC, the FARDC and MONUSCO do not intervene in time after receiving the alerts from the civilian populations which give the ADF an upper hand especially seeing as they are attacking during the day without fear or the camouflage of darkness. The CT actors ought to re-evaluate the strategies seeing as the groups especially in Mozambique and DRC have been outsmarting and proving resilient than previously estimated.