Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of 20th November – 27th November: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

In Summary

The week under review registered significant Al-Shabaab activities in both deep operations and close quarter operations. In Somalia, the threat level is skewed towards military operating bases in central and southern Somalia. Military convoys plying on major supply routes also remains key targets of the Islamist militants.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab also in the same period, organized an event in a public square in the vicinity of Jilib, Middle Juba whereby they distributed ‘zakat’ (goats and camels) the locals. The event that targeted locals ranging from youths to the old is a tact whereby Al-Shabaab continue to engage different demographics of population through such forums in turn to get their support besides it offers a fertile ground to recruit and indoctrinate the vulnerable youths. Such events, consultative forums and conferences have been witnessed in a number of Somalia regions in the recent past months with some locals reportedly pledging allegiance to the militant group.

This week under review, Al-Shabaab militant group has claimed more than ten attacks in Somalia.  Though a decline in a number of attacks has been noted especially over the past weekend as compared to previous weekends where increased militant’s activities are recorded.

No major terror activity was registered on Kenya, another key target for the Islamist militants. However, it is important to reflect on what is going on especially on Kenya’s northeastern (upper and lower prefectures) considering in the previous intelligence reports, a number of militants have been sighted in the past recent months. There is a need to establish whether enemy troops relocated from these frontier locations, or the lull is meant to achieve strategic surprise. Subsequently, there is a need to activate sources in these locations and in order to sustain aerial surveillance to pick on the possible enemy signatures.

The use of IED/RCIEDs/ RIEDs/Landmines and car bombs remains preferred attacks types for which the enemy continues to be deployed by a small number of operatives thereby avoiding direct contact with security personnel but achieve impactful results. Incidents of targeted assassinations and executions also sporadically being recorded especially in the capital Mogadishu and its surrounding.

Consistent with events recorded in the previous quarters of this year, the capital Mogadishu, the Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Bay, Bakol, Gedo, Banadir, and Lower Juba regions experienced the most jihadist violence.

The crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray also continues to pose security threat in East Africa region. Thousands have been displaced. In the neighboring Tanzania militant threat also continue to multiply compounding the threat levels in the region.

Recently Claimed Attacks (November 20^th – November 27^th)

• On November 20^th, A civilian was killed after a suspected hand grenade was thrown near a hotel in Galkayo town tonight, the capital of the north-central Mudug region of Somalia. Security forces reportedly launched a search.
• On November 20^th, AMISOM troops successfully repelled a probing attack by Al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Afmadow, Lower Juba, no casualties were reported.
• On November 21^st, shooting by Al-Shabaab gunmen leaves three young men dead in the vicinity of Elasha Biyaha, outside Mogadishu, early on Saturday. Local reports indicate that the men were travelling in a car at Jabadgelle road when they were attacked.
• On November 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have also carried attacks on Somali military base in Janale district in Lower Shabelle region, causing casualties and property damage.
• On November 23^rd, two simultaneous roadside bombs hit US-trained Somali troops near the American base at Balidogle airfield, 110 km northwest of Mogadishu. Reports indicate that the landmine went off just near Lego town in Lower Shabelle region a short while after the troops left the Baledogle airbase, south-central Somalia. Six soldiers were killed and several others wounded in landmine blast as per open sources reports. No comment so far from Somali army.
• On November 23^rd, Intelligence officer killed in and around Mogadishu. a federal security official was killed in Huriwa district of Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab assassins. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the capital Mogadishu and its surrounding.
• On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab fighters attempted attack on AMISOM military bases at Hosingow town and Abdala-Birole village in Somalia’s Lower Juba region successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported.
• On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab militants also attacked Uganda army bases in Barawe, Jannale and Bula-Marer towns in Lower Shabelle. Casualties unknown.
• On November 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked officials of South West administration in Baidoa, the capital in the southwestern Bay region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On November 25^th, Al-Shabaab group accused of killing 7 people from same family including 4 children in an attack on a house in Wajid town of Bakol region of Somalia. Motive of the execution not ascertained.
• On November 25^th, An Al-Shabaab roadside bomb attack kills four and wounds three Somali police officers traveling from Mogadishu in the vicinity of Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. This is the second Al-Shabaab’s attack in Elasha Biyaha vicinity in a week.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The biggest concern in East Africa is al-Shabab,Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, which controls approximately 10,000 fighters while harboring growing ambitions to go along with improved capabilities. According to Africa Command (USAFRICOM) quarterly report, Al-Shabaab “remains adaptive, resilient, and capable of attacking Western and partner interests in Somalia and broader East Africa region.

Security situation in the Horn of African nation, Somalia has been slowly but steadily deteriorating, with Al-Shabab conducting attacks along major Somali roads and in major Somali cities across much of the country, including the capital Mogadishu.

Across Al-Shabaab’s theatre of operation area, the threat of IED is a constant factor where the enemy troops are moving in small pockets carrying suspected explosive materials ostensibly to contaminate key routes/roads with IEDs. The use of IEDs, landmines, RIEDs, car bombs and ambushes remain some of the most preferred attack types employed by Al-Shabaab.

In terms of defensive operations, Somali forces supported by AMISOM and other coalition troops should focus on the enemy’s vulnerabilities: Major Al-Shabaab attacks on some of its forward operating bases (FOBs) and convoys, and the more frequent challenge of countering improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which account for the majority of recent casualties.

The increased sightings of enemy in small groups can be attributed to plans to stage IED and ambush attacks with minimum movement detection. Therefore, troops in Somalia are advised to observe convoy discipline in order to counter IEDs in planted along MSRs. An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in the mapped sub sectors in central and southern regions also highly recommended.

Conclusion

The East Africa Counterterrorism Operation seeks to disrupt, degrade, and deny victory to Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia in Somalia and neighboring countries.

Despite many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure in the Horn of Africa, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not completely degraded.  Al–Shabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of central and southern Somalia and has demonstrated an ability and intent to attack outside of the country.

Its worrisome of much anticipated troops withdrawal that Somalia’s security forces are unable to contain the threat from Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia which poses a smaller but still potent threat, without significant international support.

The coming year expected to bring significant challenges to Somalia, as its government seeks to hold national elections and at the same time combat the coronavirus disease–2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and the international community urgently need to review how and whether it will continue to support the ongoing development of the Somali security forces.