Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia)

Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 24th July- 30th July 2020

The Islamic State provinces in Central and East Africa have seemingly exhibited a lull in attacks and activities in the recent few weeks only conducting a few attacks in the areas they operate in. In Mozambique, CT campaign by government forces and allied paramilitary forces have rendered ISCAP less active as opposed to previous violent and bloody campaign observed in the past months. However, while there appears to be a clear down-surge in attacks, the militants appear to have adopted different attack strategies characterized by increased looting and kidnappings of women and young school girls.

In DRC, ISCAP has continued its violent campaigns in the restive Beni territory alongside other armed groups like CODECO. ADF which has continued to assert itself in the Beni territory continues to conduct attacks with crude weapons like machetes. However, in recent weeks the group has stepped up its attacks to indiscriminate killings of civilians including women and children. In DRC and Mozambique, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, run out civilians from their homes, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

On the other hand, in Somalia, the group is consistently targeting the police and other security forces in the capital, Mogadishu, and seemingly deviating from assassinations to include grenades and other improvised explosive devices. The attacks on security checkpoints can be viewed as the group’s way of remaining relevant in the face of a seemingly reinvigorated al Shabaab. The group has been met with a strong CT campaign especially in Puntland where the group is headquartered. In Somalia, especially ion Puntland where ISS is headquartered, there have been active CT campaigns by the Puntland forces with aerial bombardments from the US Africa command. (AFRICOM)

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (24th July- 30th July)

Mozambique

• 24^th July- ISCAP insurgents arrive in Mucojo in Macomia attacked the villagers killing 2 people, burned down homes, and kidnapped several women in a growing string of kidnappings and girls.
• 25^th July- two people were killed by ISCAP insurgents in the village of Novo Cabo Delgado in Macomia district.
• 25^th July- insurgent attacked Manica in Macomia district after a temporary occupation for three days from the 23^rd of July. The kidnapped six women burned houses and looted food and supplies.
• 26^th July- armed militants attacked the village of Novo Kabo in Litimanda District where they killed 4 villagers and burned down houses in the village.
• 29^th July- an attack was conducted by ISCAP militants in the Milamba neighborhood in Nabubusse in Mocimboa da Praia.
• 30^th July- ISCAP militants attacked Litandacua in Macomia district in Cabo Delgado. The attack occurred at around 2100hrs and the terrorists looted food and supplies as well as burned down houses.

The Democratic Republic of Congo

• 24^th July- ADF terrorists attacked a home killing 3 people; (man, his wife, and children) in Kikuka village in the Banande-Kainama group in the Beni territory. The victims were killed with crude weapons as is the MO of ADF.
• 29^th July- Congolesemilitary barracks were breached by the ISCAP insurgents an attack that left 4 soldiers dead and several others wounded. The attack that occurred in Beni territory in North Kivu also led to the seizure of weapons and ammo by the terrorists.
• 29^th July- 1 soldier was killed and several others injured in clashes between the Congolese military and ISCAP terrorists in Beni
• 29^th July- 6 people were killed in Mutido village located in Kitamba locality in the Banande-Kainama group in Beni. Most of the victims were beheaded by the ADF militants.
• 30^th July- ISCAP ambushed Congolese soldiers in Beni territory killing one soldier and injuring several others, looting food and weapons.

Somalia

• 24^th July- ISS militants hauled grenades at a police checkpoint in Bakara Market in Mogadishu. The attack left 4 policemen dead and several others injured.
• 30^th July- Onepolice officer was killed and two others were injured following a grenade attack by ISS terrorists. The attack occurred after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Tawfiq neighborhood in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

Analysis and Conclusion

In Mozambique, thousands of people have fled their homes in these districts. Since March, the number of internally displaced persons in Cabo Delgado has doubled, reaching 250,000 in July. The figures are projected to be higher seeing as residents have cited excessive force use and brutality by the military has been a major contributor for a huge percent of IDPs. It is evident that while there has been a myriad of allegations leveled against the militants, it is clear that the CT campaigns have yielded results resulting in the group withdrawing from locations they had recaptured and change and or adjustments to the group’s mode of operation. Abductions have continued rapidly since late June and with the major targets being women and girls. The escapees from such abductions have been offering information about the insurgents’ camps and the hierarchy. For instance, five girls who were kidnapped during the Mocimboa da Praia battle at the end of June found their way home. The girls reported that the insurgent camp they were taken to was large and run patriarchally, with women assigned to certain men and expected to follow orders from the men. They also reported that men and boys in the camp were being given military training and were closely monitored to prevent desertion.

The prevalence of kidnappings might suggest that the insurgency is having a difficult time with voluntary recruitment. The accounts from escapees also highlight the fact that the soldiers being watched to avoid desertion are likely being trained by ISCAP involuntarily. This could be credited to the recent government response and injuries thus dampening the morale of the jihadists. It is also clear that the group is expanding with membership growing both voluntarily and through abductions which means in a typical terror organization, the men ought to be taken care of, tended upon after battles as well conjugal benefits typically promised during the recruitment drive.

In a recent communique, ISIS threatened retaliation for any actions by the South African troops in Cabo Delgado in a release that indicated that the group has sleeper cells in SA and the group in Mozambique would mount attacks in SA. In that regard, South African police raided and arrested for an alleged kidnapping syndicate in a Kliprivier house south of Johannesburg that is believed to be part o fundraising drive for Islamic State. ISIS paraphernalia and propaganda materials were recovered from the raided house. The five suspects, including a Somali and an Ethiopian, are linked to the case in KwaZulu-Natal where Farhad Hoomer and 11 other men, including foreigners, were charged with terrorism, murder, attempted murder, extortion and arson in 2018. The charges arose from a fatal attack on a Verulam mosque and the setting off of cellphone-triggered pipe-bombs there and across Durban.

The arrests in South Africa are a clear indicator that ISCAP poses a greater threat than previously anticipated in the South and Central Africa and a swift and collective response ought to be used to ensure that the group doesn’t become cross-national as well as inspire lone-wolf attacks in the neighboring nations.

In Somalia, while the group still appears to lay low and make calculated attacks and targeted assassinations, it maintains a consistent mode of operation that on face value can be viewed as small and near insignificant as compared to al Shabaab attacks. However, it is crucial to note that the group has been training, and photos of the training camps indicate that the group has been asserting itself and amercing recruits and weapons that could quite possibly be used to large scale attacks in the new future. The group has been maintained relevance for the past five years and what is worrying is that a resurgence may activate fanatical grassroots jihadists who are not only ideologically inspired but with medium militant capabilities. The use of grenades and small cells to attack enables them to get to their target locations without much detection or suspicion from security assets and now with the steady resumption of suicide and martyrdom missions, more fatalities cannot be ruled out.

In DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. The same is reinforced by the target-period statistics that indicate a concentration of attacks on the security forces with just one attack on civilians recorded. ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. Further reports suggest that the ADF established new bases near Eringeti. Previously, the group appeared to only operate in North Kivu, and as such recent intelligence shows a growth in capacity and numbers that allow the group to expand and create camps and presence across the bigger region. The group also appears to be exploiting the growing tensions and violence in Beni and Ituri by other armed groups like CODECO to stretch the resources of the military and UN peacekeepers which allows them to gather the necessary supplies, weapons, and ammo to train the forest.