Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya &#038; Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 16

The Al-Qaeda aligned Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) Al-Shabaab has voiced its intent and increasingly demonstrated its capability to conduct attacks throughout East Africa.

Al-Shabaab has also focused its efforts on both local Somali troops and their allied troops, though, civilians have been caught up in the enemy unjustifiable attacks. The militant group has claimed a dozen attacks with notable success ratios. The Al-Qaeda branch through its pro-websites and media has claimed responsibility of these raids against government officials, SNA, AMISOM and other facilities though their fatality figures are exaggerated as warfare strategy by the militant group.

In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least 19 attacks in Somalia and in the neighboring country; Kenya, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least one attack on security patrol team in Mandera NEP Kenya as recorded below.

Recently Claimed Attacks (October 16^th – October 23^rd)

On October 16^th, Mohamud Osman, chairman of the Puntland Court of Appeal, survived an assassination attempt following an explosion in north Galkayo, Mudug region of Somalia. Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack Somalia.
On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack in the vicinity of Bardheere town, Gedo region of Somalia against an AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops. Several militants were wounded in the gun battle as the attack was successfully repulsed.
On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab attempted raid on AMISOM base in Lower Juba successfully thwarted. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab attempted to attack Taabta Forward Operating Base near Dhobley, AMISOM’s Sector II headquarters, but were repelled. No casualties were reported.
On October 18^th, At least four Somali National Army (SNA) were killed in an explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab between El-Baraf and Biyo Adde, Middle Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that troops were traveling from Jalalaqsi to Mogadishu when their vehicle ran over an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) leading to massive destruction. Four soldiers were killed and several other in the convoy were severely wounded.
On October 18^th, Dozens of Al-Shabaab killed in a botched attack on SNA facility in central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed SNA troops near Bulo-burde in Hiran, central Somalia, triggering a close quarter battle where 24 militants were killed and attack botched.
On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Jubalanad Security Forces’ (JSF) base in Bar-Sanguuni, on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba using heavy artillery. Three soldiers wounded.
On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed gun raid on AMISOM troops in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab fighters targeted Burundian troops who on patrol routine where two soldiers were critically wounded.
On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Kenya Patrol Team in Mandera NEP, Kenya. The militant group claimed to have ambushed the patrol troops in Lafey vicinity of Mandera. Reports indicate that the troops responded with gunfire wounding a number of militants who fled towards the Somalia.
On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed grenade attack followed with gun battle on AMISOM troops in the outskirts of Dinsor town, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate raided a military base operated by Ethiopian troops and that six Ethiopian troops were killed and six others wounded in the afternoon attack.
On October 20^th, a car bomb exploded on the outskirts of Awdheegle village in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia killing one and injuring two government soldiers.
On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated an intelligence officer identified as Abdullahi Mohamed Ishaq in the vicinity of Wadajir district of Mogadishu.
On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab fighters last night launched a major attack on AMISOM’s Ethiopian military base in Burdhubo district in Gedo region. The attack on a base near the Burdhubo bridge caused casualties.
On October 20^th, A landmine blast claimed by Al-Shabaab killed at least 2 people and injured several others on Tuesday in Mogadishu. The explosion targeted Director-General of Immigration and Naturalization Directorate Mohamed Aden Koofi in KM 4 near hotel Afrik in the capital. The director-general escaped unscathed.

On October 21^st, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for grenade attacks against Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia’s capital city, Mogadishu. A local news source claimed the attack killed six soldiers.
On October 21^st, suspected Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a Somali government official in Mogadishu. The official reportedly survived the attack.
On October 21^st, at least 19 Al-Shabaab fighters were killed in a botched attack on an airfield in Dinsor town, Bay region of Somalia. Police sources says a suicide attack was foiled after seizing a rickshaw loaded with explosive devices. Two militants were also captured while the third one managed to escape.
On October 22^nd, reports from Baidoa town, the provincial capital of Bay region of Somalia confirm that Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a government military base located on the outskirts of Baidoa town killing one soldier and wounding two others.
On October 22^nd, Qansahdhere vicinity, Bay region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked SNA troops. Three troops were injured in the brief gun battle.
On October 22^nd, On the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab militants launched a major offensive against SNA and AMISOM troops during their patrol routine in BarSanguuni area of Jubaland. Two soldiers killed and others wounded.
On October 22^nd, fighting between Jubaland state forces (JSF) and Al-Shabaab fighters took place outside Kismayo, Lower Juba.The fight erupted after Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a convoy of Jubaland troops heading to their Abdalla Birole base. Al-Shabaab media reported that two Jubbaland soldiers were killed in the gun fight.

Assessment, Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab continue to spike up attacks from across the regions of Somalia. The persistent theaters of operations remain in central and southern Somalia. Its notable, Al-Shabaab activity in Somalia are not reducing but are on a steady rise. Al-Shabaab’s endeavors to consolidate its hold over the parts of southern and central Somalia and extract taxes from people subsequently weakening the hold of Federal Government of Somalia.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab is keen on attacking SNA and AMISOM military bases in the mapped regions of Somalia in what has been reported in repeat attacks. Generally, most of the attacks can be described as low intensity, but numerous, disruptive, and daring, but though most of these attacks have been repulsed, some recording zero casualties, the attacks relevant to groups endeavors as they stamp their resilience besides showcasing capabilities of storming on hard targets persistently and repeatedly.

In the group’s attacks trends, its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks, However, ambush raids are increasingly becoming norm for the Islamist militants targeting military convoys as well their Forward Operating Bases (FOBs).

Though CT and COIN actors have also increased pressure on the militant group, the Somali National Army (SNA) has not been able to hold the territory captured from Al-Shabaab in joint operations with African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces completely, thus these regions remain fluid and thus putting in doubt SNA preparedness in taking over Somalia security once allied troops exits.

Though Kenya’s NEP region has witnessed calmness for several months, its notable of the group’s consistent intent to conduct attacks in these areas neighboring Somalia. In a number of occasions, Al-Shabaab’s movements in northeastern prefectures have been reported especially in vicinities with water points. It’s possible the militants could establish makeshift camps at close proximities with water-wells and thus, surveillance teams to remain vigilant.

Conclusion

Amid COVID-19 pandemic, Al-Shabaab fighters have sustained their operations, increasingly targeting civilians, government officials, and security forces. The persistent attacks have further strained and frustrated the military response being carried out by the Somali National Army (SNA), which is backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops and U.S. forces. CT actors to re-invent or re-think their counter-strategies as more attacks are expected bearing in mind that more targets are now becoming available following the gradual easing of COVID-19 restrictions in East African countries.

Strategic Intelligence (SI) analysts’ view COVID-19 adds one more challenge to Somalia, a country besieged by war and frequent droughts, and recommend security experts need to provide more attention to the current state of affairs in Somalia so that Al-Shabaab does not continue to take advantage of the pandemic to conduct attacks, recruit and gain more support citing Shabaab has used such disasters in the past to its advantage to recruit new fighters and reorganize for their continued fight against the government.