Executive Summary
The rise in terrorism and violent extremism in East Africa region has created severe security threats as this growing phenomenon has resulted in death, destruction and instability in the countries and regions where terrorist groups operate. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted the Horn of Africa, Somalia and sporadically Kenya with those attacks.
Somalia has been engulfed in political stalemate following the much-delayed elections that saw President Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo’s term expire on February 8. Political crisis in Somalia has continued to pose risk, expanding into larger conflicts while lifting pressure from Salafi-jihadi groups in the region. Kenya frontier regions have suffered from political crisis in Somalia with latter blaming Kenya over interfering with its internal political affairs.
In the past couple of months, diplomatic relations between Nairobi and Mogadishu have worsened with Somalia citing unconfirmed “political interference”. Media reports have indicated Somalia’s intent to restore diplomatic relations with Kenya. Although Kenya has not publicly commented on the latest development, it’s understood that Qatar played an essential role in the restoration of the diplomatic relationship. For almost a week, Emir Sheikh Tamim of Qatar had dispatched Mutlaq Alqahtani, a lead mediator, to Somalia and Kenya.
Increased protests and unrest have also seized Somalia’s capital Mogadishu following the president’s attempt to extend his term by two years. The country’s security forces are fragmenting, and rival factions have staked out positions in the capital. Now talks on the way forwards are to resume in the coming days, security forces have been called to return to their respective operating bases.
On the other hand, Farmajo’s support base deteriorated rapidly in the past week, with senior political and security leaders—including the prime minister and other former allies—turning against his attempt to hold onto power.
Meanwhile, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has already exploited the crisis to bolster its positions in the Somali countryside. Al-Shabaab has sought to capitalize on the political turmoil by targeting police and government especially in capital Mogadishu where the militant group has persistently mounted a number of attacks. Attacks targeting military positions as well as civilians continue to be recorded daily. Though Al-Shabaab has not spiked up attacks during the Ramadhan period as usually has been the trend with jihadist networks, counterterrorism actors should not relent rather should remain vigilant throughout their respective areas of responsibility.
In the one past week, Al-Shabaab activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia. The Attacks have been concentrated in small towns and localities of Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Lower Juba, Bakool and in the capital, Mogadishu. The attacks trend /pattern shows that the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia targeting local and foreign troops bases and convoys.
At least two incidents were reported in Kenya. In one incident, a pickup vehicle ferrying Miraa from Meru to Liboi was on Sunday night hijacked by suspected members of the Al-Shabaab militia, about 5 kilometres from Liboi town. The vehicle which had three occupants was later seen at Dagalema border area crossing over to Somalia. Occupants were later released by hijackers as per police sources. On another raid, Al-Shabaab IED hit a vehicle at around Border Point 27 which is several kilometres past Ishakani Village in Lamu East. Despite lull witnessed during this period of Ramadhan, Kenyan counterterrorism actors urged to maintain vigilance especially in upper and lower NEP as well in the restive coastal county of Lamu. Kenya intelligence assets also continue to warn of embed terror cells along the border prefectures with Somalia.
AS Recently Claimed Attacks: May 1st – May 7th
- On May 1st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted several operations in Somalia. In one attack, Al-Shabaab claimed mortar attack in Galgala mountains in northern Somalia targeting government forces.
- On May 1st, Al-Shabaab claimed another mortar attack in Qoqani and Abdalla Biroole of Lower Juba Somalia targeting AMISOM contingent. No casualties were reported.
- On May 1st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack targeting government forces in Raage Ceele district of Middle Shabelle. As per local sources, an elder has been killed in Raage Ceele during the militant’s attack.
- On May 2nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM positions in Hiran. In Jalalaqsi district of Hiran region in central Somalia, Al-Shabaab fighters fired a number of mortar shells at a Djiboutian military base recording a number of casualties.
- On May 2nd, in Wajid district of Bakool region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked an AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops causing casualties and property damage to the military base.
- On May 2nd, suspected Al-Shabaab fighters hijacked a pick-up vehicle ferrying Miraa from Meru to Liboi on Sunday night. Initial police report indicate that the vehicle which had three occupants seen at Dagalema border area crossing over to Somalia. Occupants were later released by hijackers as per police sources.
- On May 3rd, At least two people were on Monday killed while one was critically injured when a vehicle, they were travelling in ran over an improvised explosive device (IED) suspected to have been planted on the road by A-Shabaab militants. The 9.30am incident took place at at around Border Point 27 which is several kilometres past Ishakani Village in Lamu East.
- On May 4th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed of four AMISOM soldiers and wounding others in an IED explosion followed by an ambush attack in the road between Kamboni and Buur Gaabo in Somalia’s Lower Juba region.
- On May 5th, At least three people died and one woman injured on Wednesday when a landmine exploded in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The incident took place in Mogadishu’s Kahda district when a Toyota Hilux Surf hit a landmine that was on the roadside.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
The Somalia-based terrorist group Al-Shabaab remains the primary terrorist threat in Somalia, Kenya and the region at large. The primary goal of attacking local and foreign troops besides other establishments of interests remains unchanged for the Islamist militants.
In the recent past, security agencies have been put on the alert following persistent repeat terror attacks. However, the security-based approach faces numerous challenges. Somali security forces and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) continue to make gains against Al-Shabaab but despite measures adopted, the threat of terrorism emanating from Somalia remains real.
In countering the Islamist militants, involving border communities in border security plans is one key factor that can be exploited towards stemming down terror activities besides radicalization that takes place with the community levels and around the regions neighboring Somalia. There is need to identify relevant stakeholders involved in border management and the application of controls. Another approach would be for Kenya and Somalia government and security agencies to partner with border communities in raising awareness and increase sharing of relevant information regarding border management and control as an essential role in countering transnational terrorism.
Enhanced surveillance and scouting on Forward operating bases (FOBs) encouraged to avoid surprise attacks (ambushes) that continue be witnessed in Somalia regions. Use of IEDs and landmines remains among the most preferred attack types by the militants. Targeted killings and assassinations are usually aimed at key individuals; especially government officials and also alleged spies.
Conclusion
As it stands, the best hope for Somalia at present is initiation of sustained political dialog which yields a more inclusive transitional government–one which empowers and reassures key constituencies in Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia. At present, the growing levels of armed violence in witnessed in the capital Mogadishu do not amount to an insurgency but one which Al-Shabaab has been keen on and might exploit in the coming days or weeks if not decisively contained.
Counterterrorism measures need to be upscaled by developing a legal architecture through robust military, enhancing the capacity of intelligence sharing mechanisms, stringent border controls and counter radicalization programs.
Enhanced border surveillance is key towards stemming down militant’s activity along the porous border with Somalia. Border surveillance plays a critical role in the management of transnational terrorism and Kenya’s security assets must play a critical role in solving the underlying problem besides preempting future raids.
Coordinated and harmonised efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism to be upscaled among and between states, together with regional, continental and international partners. These efforts to include collaboration on border security, sharing intelligence, and the development of strategies and frameworks, such as the African Union’s (AU) Counter Terrorism Framework and the United Nations’ (UN) Global Counter-terrorism Strategy.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s intent and zeal to wage attacks. Al-Shabaab threatens to destabilise an already fragile state, impeding sustainable development and democracy. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in East Africa region.
