Executive Summary
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen movement (HSM), more commonly known as Al-Shabaab, remains the main security challenge in Somalia and one of the most significant threats to regional stability and security in the Horn of Africa citing the persistent group’s activity especially in its home base Somalia, and besides its sporadic operations in Kenya.
The militant attacks perpetrated by the group continue to claim the lives of more civilians, military and government officials. Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curtailing its activity and strike power.
Amid political uncertainty in Somalia, the Horn of Africa nation continues to face numerous challenges. It remains critical for Somalia leaders to resolve the ongoing political disagreements in order to refocus their energy on the imminent security threat that has bedeviled the country for close to two decades.
The FGS-FMS meeting led by Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble aimed at resolving on contentious issues including the electoral process dispute was scheduled to for Thursday, 20th May 2021 in the capital Mogadishu. President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, leaders of Puntland, Jubaland, Southwest, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug state, Saed Abdullahi Deni, Abdiaziz Hassan Laftagaren, Ali Gudlawe, Ahmed Abdi Qooqor respectively as well as Mogadishu mayor Omar Filish were expected to attend the consultative meeting. The federal and member state governments in collaboration with all counterterrorism actors in the country need to pull together to curb the jihadists’ chances of playing spoiler, besides exploiting the current situation.
In the period under review, the Islamist militants has claimed a number of operations in Somalia and in Kenya (Mandera and Lamu). Nine attacks have been recorded in the past one week. Eight attacks being recorded in Somalia and two in Kenya. Significant reduction in militant activity in Somalia and in the region continue to noted, the same trend that was witnessed throughout the holy month of Ramadhan. That notwithstanding, increased surveillance, both ground and airborne should be scaled-up on the proximal of all military operating bases and all security defense posts to timely pick on enemy movements, besides preempting and thwarting possible surprise attacks in the coming days.
AS Recently Claimed Attacks (May 14th – May 21st)
- On May 17th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on AMISOM’s troops thwarted in the vicinity of Kismayo, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported in the botched raid.
- On May 18th, Heavy explosion reported in Galkayo town, Central Somalia. Casualties feared. According to Somali police spokesman, Sadik Aden Ali, three suicide bombers who were on a motorcycle were planning to blow up themselves near a local hotel died in their own explosion.
- On May 18th, Reports from the Lower Shabelle region that Al-Shabaab militants conducted a surprise attack on government troops as they were traveling on the outskirts of Warmaxan. at least three soldiers were killed and two others wounded in the ambush raid claimed by Al-Shabaab jihadists.
- On May 18th, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants attacked a checkpoint set up by government forces on the road between Mogadishu and Balad. Unknown number of casualties reported.
- On May 18th, KDF soldiers on routine duties within Lamu County (Baure) encountered and Improvised Explosive Device (IED), reinforced with an ambush along the Bodhei – Kiunga Road. Army lost troops in the incident while others were injured.
- On May 19th, At least four six Somali soldiers, including a commander, were been killed in an Al-Shabaab roadside bomb attack in vicinity of Jowhar town. Initial reports indicate that the blast targeted Middle Shabelle region governor Ahmed Meyre Makaran, who narrowly survived. One military vehicle destroyed. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
- On May 20th, Suspected Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a man identified as Cartan Waasuge inside Mogadishu’s Bakara market. Killers escape from the scene. The motive behind this killing still not known.
- On May 21st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Mogadishu’s Garasbaaleey blast. Local sources reports indicate that Al-Shabaab blast targeted Abdirahman Ahmed Garyare, Garasbaale district commissioner and three of his bodyguards.
- On May 21st, 3 Kenya security operators while on a morning patrol mission were critically injured after their tactical vehicle rolled and got extensively damaged after it ran over a terrorists IED at Barashun area along the Banisa- Takaba road in Mandera East, NEP Kenya.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab remains the primary and direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The persistent in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for militant activity in Africa, as it is home to one of the most lethal terror organizations in the continent and the world.
While Al-Shabaab operations have reduced in past couple of weeks especially in Somalia. The country’s political instability in the war-torn Somalia plays straight into the hands of Al-Shabaab, the jihadists who control large swathes of Somalia and are bent on toppling the government in Mogadishu and imposing strict Islamic law.
Internal wrangling the other hand gives Al-Shabaab an opening to exploit divisions in the security and further its violent agenda. Tapping into the grievances of local communities is what enables Al-Shabaab to remain and rebuild in Somalia should be put into consideration; preempting attempt of the jihadist group portraying itself as an alternative authority.
Its notable the group released a video that largely has been viewed as a recruitment call in the region. The video that showcased fighters graduating after undergoing some military training. The fighters who were addressed by top Al-Shabaab commanders including Amniyaat (intelligence) chief, Mahad Karate and Ahmad Iman Ali from Kenya were speaking in Swahili, signaling homegrown threat multiplying. Its highly likely fighters from this unit will be deployed to lead operations back in their respective home countries in an effort to prove their worth and loyalty.
Kenya remains a key target for Al-Shabaab. The Islamist militant group has continued to carry out its operations, especially in northeastern prefectures of Kenya (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa). Also, the coastal county of Lamu continue to bear brunt of Al-Shabaab attacks citing a gruesome group’s sleeper cells operating in Lamu’s vast Boni forest. Al-Shabaab conduct sporadic attacks on military bases and targets in Kenya with the aim of reducing the military pressure on the group in Somalia.
Kenya’s counterterrorism actors need to remain focused on their counterterrorism strategies. It seems increasingly likely that the group will try to expand throughout the region, especially in northeastern and coastal regions of Kenya, where it is able to exploit existing religious divisions and sectarian conflicts. The group has already directed threats towards Christians in the region, and has killed several individuals. In the aforementioned video, the narrator points that northeastern as well as coastal regions of Kenya as Muslim land which in other words, they need to fight for.
Conclusion
Despite a significant decrease in attacks over the past few weeks, its critical that Al-Shabaab’s influence and ambitions remain in constant check. The ability of Al-Shabaab to threaten Somalia and broader East Africa regional stability and to conduct external operations must be degraded.
Eliminating the militant risk in Somalia is impossible. The threat of attack, whether by Al-Shabaab, Islamic State or both, hangs over the 2021 elections in Somalia and thus its paramount that Somali army forces must work with international partners to in renewed effort to deepen the collective ability to counter the Islamist insurgents together in a meaningful way that will subsequently enhance regional security, stability and interoperability.
In the wake of eased COVID19-related restrictions across East Africa region, Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that Al-Shabaab may seek to exploit the opportunity to conduct attacks against a broader range of targets after previous public capacity limited opportunities for lethal attacks and counterterrorism assets urged to remain vigilant. In their respective areas of responsibility, surveillance, patrols by security units and well as investing on locals especially in prone regions and localities for provision of human intelligence (HUMINT) much encouraged.
As per S.I. previous forecasts, threat levels continue to be skewed towards forward operating bases (military bases) both for military and security defense posts. Surveillance and scouting around their perimeter also encouraged to avoid surprise attacks. Targeted attacks on key government officials, military troops and convoys also remain persistent for Kenya and Somalia.
