By David James
Public Transport corridors continue to provide terrorism actors with the desired opportunity to strike.
Lawlessness and the criminal gangs related with the transport sector pose a major challenge to the war on terror.
Criminals and terrorists share near similar ideals when human life is kept in perspective. As such our analysis touches the possibility of the nexus between crime and terror as a factor in procuring the bias of targets.
Choice of time, location, and logistical aspects guide terror actors when choosing the particular target.
Public transport both air, sea, and land are targets. Land based public transport systems like buses/shuttles have been hit by terrorists.
A recent analysis using event’s link charts by our analysts show terrorists are likely to attack the rail system and an airport.
Kenya is currently on the spotlight for the mega-railway project funded by the Chinese government besides in the process of expanding its main airports capacity.
Rail and air transport are key pillars of the economy while at the same time symbolize the unique nature of our society, economy, and national unity. These are key factors terrorists’ key in when planning terror attacks.
Main Airport we have assessed as a likely target of terrorism in Kenya
Malindi airport is likely to be hit by terrorists. It is located on the west part of Malindi town and its east borders near-informal settlements.
The informal settlements may be serving as both safe houses for terror cells or home to terror cells. Our analyst’s project a possibility of terrorists launching a rocket propelled grenade from the settlement on an aeroplane landing or taking off from the airport.
The terrorists may fire the rocket or even anti-air missile capable of bringing down a Kenya Airways Embraer type aeroplane. In our past intelligence briefs, we mentioned that Somali based terrorists have been in possession of these missiles. Such a missile was used a decade ago on an Israeli plane leaving Mombasa.
Pre-emptive Measures to Thwart the Threat
Intelligence and police must comb the area and clean it up of any person who may have had contact with associates or real sympathizers/suspects of terrorism in Kenya.
Terrorists planning take time and the ferrying of materials such as parts of the rocket launcher or the SAM missile launcher may have been ongoing for some time.
It is important that surveillance on the area is increased since upon detection, terrorists may either abandon the mission or perfect their act by moving the point of launching the attack.
All main airports including those in other cities like Kisumu and Eldoret must be secured.
Securing does not mean putting a police ring around the facility, rather employing a strategy that ensures possibility of the above type of attack cannot succeed.
The distance between nearest building and the airport must be reduced and occupants screened and premises regularly checked. Surveillance on all those coming in and out of these buildings must be increased.
Striking such targets is meant to give terrorists glory which they badly need. The terrorists would claim that they have struck deep in the heart of Kenya.
David James is a web-based intelligence analyst. He has spent over 6 years studying terrorism trends, criminology, and intelligence analysis. He owns Strategic Intelligence and other online media.
You can contact the author by emailing him at djames@intelligencebriefs.com
