Heavy military clashes erupted earlier today along the Israeli-Lebanon border between the Lebanese Shiite group, Hezbollah, and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). The clashes started after a Hezbollah outpost in Shaaba Farms activated its nest of rocket launchers and fired a coordinated barrage of Katyusha rockets towards IDF troops and inflicted multiple casualties on Israeli troops. Israel has responded with heavy fire directed at Hezbollah positions.
Rocket fire from Syria.
Yesterday afternoon, Syrian artillery posted at Quneitra fired rockets into Northern Golan and Mt.Hermon region in Israel. No casualties were reported. This particular Syrian outpost is manned by the 90th Brigade of the Syrian Arab Army with reinforcements being provided by militiamen belonging to the Syrian Popular Army – a facsimile creation of IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps).
The Israeli air force responded by pinpointing and neutralizing several of the artillery nests. This prompted Iran to pledge retaliations against the Jewish State. The pledges were issued by two high-ranking Iranian officials; Hossein Amirabdollahian, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran; and General Hossein Salami, the acting commander of IRGC. Hossein Amirabdollahian also bellowed that Iran had warned the US that Israel had crossed the red line.
Israeli settlements hit by rocket fire.
Last night, Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israeli settlements and hit the settlements of Masaada, Al-Rom, Nimrod, Odem, Majd el Shams, Neve Ativ, Ain Kanya and Buq’ata. Israel responded by conducting aerial raids on Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon.
Residents in Northern Israel have been advised to remain indoors and civilian traffic has been halted in the region. Heavy deployment of Israeli troops in the region seeks to pre-empt Hezbollah infiltration into the northern settlements.
Assessment by SIS (Strategic Intelligence Service).
SIS has assessed the current situation in the region and has concluded that the Israelis are determined to fend off a possible war of attrition with Hezbollah and its Iranian backers. The current nexus of conflict is the Shabaa Farms. The Shabaa Farms (also known as Mt.Dov) is a strip of mountainous land – 11 km by 2.5 km – located at the intersection of Israel-Lebanon-Syria border with all the three nations laying claim to it. It is also adjacent to the Israeli-held Golan Heights, thus a strategic territorial asset from a military vantage.
As the situation is at the moment, either of the warring sides can escalate the conflict into another Middle Eastern conflagration. Nonetheless, Israeli intelligence agencies predict that the enemies will not escalate the border war but will attempt to heighten military tensions in the region for the longest time possible in order to keep Israel on edge.
The Israeli military establishment has issued dire warning to Iran and its ill-behaved surrogate, Hezbollah, to avoid harming Israel’s overseas interests. However, intelligence assessments by SIS predict that Hezbollah may export its war against Israel into other countries by targeting Israeli embassies, consulates and Jewish centers in sovereign nations, Kenya included. Even so, there is a high likelihood of intelligence wars between Israel and Iran escalating and spilling over into allied nations.
Also peculiar to this conflict is the fact that Iran has set red lines and had resorted to indirectly warn Israel via the US. In the US, the state department has declined to issue any remark concerning its private diplomatic contacts with the Islamic Republic but rejected that Iran had issued a warning to Israel via the US. According to SIS, this indicates that Iran is not fully at terms with the US with regards to its nuclear ambitions but the two nations may act concertedly against Israel if Israel launches a preemptive air strike against Iranian nuclear assets.
SIS predicts that Iran will attempt to use its diplomatic fortitude to drag the US into the current military crisis with the intent of limiting the range of options open to Israel for retribution. The Americans are already jittery and extremely concerned about the ultimate fate of the ceasefire signed by Israel and Syria after the Yom Kippur War.
