Disagreements between the South Sudan anti-government Sudanese People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) and President Salva Kirr’s Government officials on power sharing and demilitarization of the capital Juba poses the greatest challenge to realizing peace in the war torn South Sudan.
The president faces a challenge beyond his wisdom. He must balance his act with all due wisdom. According to IHS Janes July-August forecast on the possibility of the peace deal deadline being met, President Kiir would not make it.
Kiir has to review the peace deal whose which proposes a power-sharing arrangement with his ex-vice-president Riek Machar. IGAD’S Proposals also seek the demilitarization of capital Juba, besides the reintegration of defected military units.
Intelligence draws out a picture of a weakened president if he concedes to the IGAD Proposal. IGAD is expanded to include China, Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union and African Union thus may mount pressure on the President to ascent the proposal.
However Kiir is lost of solutions since the deal seeks he dismantles a size-able part of his Power-Edifice without creating New Rebels. This means the president must do away with some of his allies in government while at the same time include Riek Machar’s men in his government.
The truly profound is, ” Will Salva Kiir be the spoiler by refusing to convince his Politico-Military Power-Edifice to accept the hard sacrifices in the deal?”