The Islamists Terrorists Shabaab Mujahideen movement in Somalia published a video eulogizing and paying tribute to various slain members of their obliterated affiliate Jaysh Ayman. Most notable in the video published online by the jihadists, British terrorist Thomas Evans features alongside the group’s commander Luqman Osman Issa, aka Shirwa. Both were killed by Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) troops manning a Forward Operating Base (FOB) in Baure area of Lamu County, Coastal Kenya.
Approximately 20 terrorists were killed in the morning of 14th June 2015 after they attempted to overrun the KDF Baure FOB. Thomas was killed alongside Shirwa and 20 others less than 4 minutes off breaching the FOB perimeter. The publication by the terrorist group is tribute to the killed extremists. Interestingly, the terror group published the video days after the day of anniversary.
However, S.I views these publications from a Threat Lens Perspective. S.I Threat Intelligence over years has focused on analyzing such publications to establish possibility of them being tactical terror cell activations. And in regards to this, we explore within the context, the intent of the terrorists with an objective of mitigating the risks posed by these intents.
Interestingly, statistical analysis by S.I confirms unprecedented risk of terrorism every time the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia pays tribute to killed fighters. More often, the tribute is a veiled threat or activation of cells to either mount revenge attacks or advance strategically. As such, the publishing of the video can only be viewed from the threat lens. The belligerents of the extremist movement upon accessing the content through the high dimension communication networks (HDCN) may analyze it and build on the failures of their dead. And this is the truly profound. It’s exactly how they’ve been morphing strategies.